Coronavirus mortality rate now 0.6%, not 3% as first told

Its tricky...


Definately going to be a lot of time off work sick with it and a big strain \ cost on nealth services.

Death rate could be 1% with functioning health care and 20% without

Or china could start searching houses and find 1000s dead in there beds.
 
Case fatality rate is a good measure. The flaw for any calculations is that milder cases never get reported so it skews all numbers. If these milder cases and other non reported cases would be thrown in the calculations it would bring fatality rate number lower.

I look at active cases and from the numbers I’ve seen it peaked at shy of 60k currently at 39k active cases and tapering. Again who knows since those numbers or any numbers are not accurate.

My guess is that like always, market panic overshoots market exuberance.
 
It is not just the death rate that makes this virus dangerous:

1. The infected are contagious for a long time without symptoms.
2. They need hospital care for a much longer time.

Now in a country like the US without adequate healthcare, lots of people can't afford to go to the hospital and stay there for 2+ weeks. Thus they have a better chance to die and infect more people while they are not under professional care.

Also people working 2 jobs will not/can not stay home until they are sent home by their employers. The restaurant industry is notorious for letting ill people work. Well, guess where you can get infected easily?
 
Here is a person describing how it feels like having the virus. Note that he was asked to stay home for 2 weeks! and after that he was going to be checked so that can be easily 3 weeks out of work. Most Americans can't afford that.

https://www.reddit.com/r/path%3D%252Fr%252FAMA%252Fcomments%252Ffea760%252F

"The treatment is don´t get out of your home for 15 days, then they will come take another sample and check if you still got it, if you don´t you can start your normal life again."
 
There was a sobering, credible cnbc epidemiologist interview recently saying he expects a 40-60% infection rate and millions dead.

I am concerned and am telling everyone I know, especially older folks to try and stay housebound for the next 90+ days. Buy soup chili rice etc. Seriously.
 
ET180 said:
Death rate always starts out high and is most concerning because it takes weeks to be declared fully recovered, but only a few hours to die. To me the key is child death rate...it's very low if not zero.
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I said this before - if you take a cold hearted view, corona is a net PLUS for the society - it cleanses up the old and the sick - the dead weights.
 
dozu888 said:
I said this before - if you take a cold hearted view, corona is a net PLUS for the society - it cleanses up the old and the sick - the dead weights.
More...

Also helps stimulate the economy -- their money either goes to government or hopefully children who tend to spend it more freely.
 
ET180 said:
The South Korea numbers didn't start picking up until the weekend before last. It takes a while past the absence of symptoms to declare someone totally recovered. Watch the recovery rate...it will start picking up at a quick rate over the next week or two.

Separate topic: curious how Hong Kong has so few cases despite being so close to China.
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%%
Good question. HIGHEST risk factors include ; [1] Lack of hand washing [2] weak immune system [3] age+ MD said older are @ more risk.[ BUT not likely a high risk for older types like Jack LaLanne types/ex junk food junkie LOL.........................................................................................]
 
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