Coronavirus mortality rate now 0.6%, not 3% as first told

[Amun Ra]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/south-korea-tested-140-000-031000719.html

Turns out the more people you test, the lower the mortality rate goes. I'm betting we find out quickly that the Coronavirus is no worse than the regular old flu.

Time to buy up all those cheap stocks before everyone else figures it out.

 

[financial-markets]

what cheap stock. the market is the same price as dec. 2019. which was 2 months a go? there are no 'cheap shares' and it's 'cheap' it 'cheap' for a reason and can go to ZERO. okay energy stocks are 'cheap,, you know why, cause their debt is 10 billion and book 'assets' is 3 billion and that is why. the equity has no value and risk of becoming zero. that is the nature of equities. even bondholders of these companies are screwed. when shit hits the fan. or managmeent self destructs or sabotage and the company. or corporate embezzlement.

 

[Cuddles]

because every country is reacting & testing like S. Korea. Meanwhile, death rate 6% in the US & 1/100th the testing rate of S. Korea w/our 3500$ test kits

OP of course knew that but felt like trolling:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...s-worse-than-irans.341084/page-3#post-5026837

 

[ET180]

because every country is reacting & testing like S. Korea. Meanwhile, death rate 6% in the US & 1/100th the testing rate of S. Korea w/3500$ test kits

Death rate always starts out high and is most concerning because it takes weeks to be declared fully recovered, but only a few hours to die. To me the key is child death rate...it's very low if not zero.

 

[Cuddles]

Death rate always starts out high and is most concerning because it takes weeks to be declared fully recovered, but only a few hours to die. To me the key is child death rate...it's very low if not zero.

except it's remained the same in S. korea, having their 1st case at the same time we did here in the US. We'll be lucky to level off around Italy's death rate.

 

[ET180]

except it's remained the same in S. korea, having their 1st case at the same time we did here in the US. We'll be lucky to level off around Italy's death rate.

The South Korea numbers didn't start picking up until the weekend before last. It takes a while past the absence of symptoms to declare someone totally recovered. Watch the recovery rate...it will start picking up at a quick rate over the next week or two.

Separate topic: curious how Hong Kong has so few cases despite being so close to China.

 

[Cuddles]

The South Korea numbers didn't start picking up until the weekend before last. It takes a while past the absence of symptoms to declare someone totally recovered. Watch the recovery rate...it will start picking up at a quick rate over the next week or two.

Separate topic: curious how Hong Kong has so few cases despite being so close to China.

or maybe, it picked up because they're testing 100x as much

 

[ET180]

or maybe, it picked up because they're testing 100x as much

Probably. I'd imagine that there are multiple times more people affected with the beer virus here in the US than reported. They simply think it's the flu and will recover on their own as if they had the flu.

Looking at the case map, as far as the US, aside from Texas and Florida, looks like the virus only affects mostly blue states. Humm...election meddling!?

 

[gaussian]

As I've been harping in every repeat topic - the way the news outlets are calculating the fatality rate is wrong. It is NOT [deaths]/[cases], which the article linked uses to reach it's conclusion. It's [deaths]/[deaths + recoveries]. You cannot include "indeterminant" cases when doing this math. Otherwise you severely undershoot the severity by operating on the implicit assumption all incomplete cases will resolve with survival. The CDC has a vested interest in reporting the naive number in order to stop people from panicking despite this number being wildly inaccurate for an infection in-progress.

If you use the actual math and this:

South Korea
--------------------
Total deaths = 40
Total recoveries = 135

40/[135+40] = ~23% of RESOLVED cases resulting in death so far.

This overshoots deaths marginally (a better number would include more specifics about the cases that haven't resolved yet) and the sample size is too small at the moment. This number isn't that useful.

The most accurate numbers we probably have are china:

Mainland China
---------------------

Total Deaths: 3042
Total Recoveries: 53738

3042/[3042+53738] = ~5% of resolved cases resulting in deaths so far.

To note: Using the naive estimate the Spanish Flu had a naive CFR of >2.5%. Given these statistically significant samples we can be almost certain we are staring another pandemic in the face. It only depends how long before the CDC declares it and panics the world.

----------------------------------------------


Here is a paper: https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/162/5/479/82647

To Quote:

The second simple estimate based on the ratio of deaths of those for whom the outcome is known, e2, is reasonable at most points in the epidemic. However, at one time point in the epidemic (April 16), the estimate is lower than that eventually observed, and the confidence intervals do not contain the observed case fatality ratio.

How many people shilling for Corona to be no worse than the flu are sticking their head in the sand because they are deep in the red and are on both knees praying to the market gods that the next 3 quarters don't bankrupt them?

 

[themickey]

It would be interesting just to look at normal average death rates per country and see how it's trending atm. They must have those figures somewhere available to the public I would have thought.