Corona Virus Death Rate will be about .6% to .7%

[gwb-trading]

Do you see where this is going 0.2 - 0.4% death rate. A bad flu season.

Now we're debating body counts instead of death rates.

1st. Docs and nurses are told to write COVID19 on all death certificates for Federal Money. Thats a fact you continue to ignore. So the total national death count is way over-stated.

2nd. NOBODY DIES FROM THE REGULAR FLU ANYMORE. Its all COVID19 Deaths !!! Which is another lie. Again, the death totals are OVERSTATED.

3rd. You're ASSUMING CV is far more infectious then a strong flu. We don't know that or have any proof of that. Again. Resorting to fear porn. In a strong flu season, only 11% of Americans catch it. What about the other 89%? Maybe they're just naturally immune to it?

Do we even know for a fact, if someone who doesn't have the antibodies for covid19 WILL CATCH covid19 if exposed? Do we know that? Cause the same math holds true for the regular flu. Not everyone catches it. In fact, only 10% of the population catch the cold. So why would CV be any different? Based on what evidence?

You are incorrect in all of your assertions which are not backed with facts. At this point the discussion with you is basically futile since you are pushing your own reality which is only backed by fringe conspiracy theory sites.

Approximately 50% of Americans get flu shots every year; this reduces the infectiousness of the flu. There is no equivalent vaccination for COVID-19. Due to the flu vaccinations only 9 million to 49 million Americans get the flu in most flu years. In very bad flu seasons such as 2017/2018 this number is above 60 million. The death rate from the flu in a bad season is 0.1% in most years it is 0.05%.

The seasonal flu never killed anyone in my high school graduating class in New York in the past 50+ years. I only need to take a look at the death toll from COVID-19 over the past 5 weeks among the people I grew up with and went to school with in Long Island -- to make the obvious conclusion that COVID-19 is much worst than the seasonal flu.

Study challenges reports of low fatality rate for COVID-19
https://news.berkeley.edu/2020/04/24/study-challenges-reports-of-low-fatality-rate-for-covid-19/

Experts demolish studies suggesting COVID-19 is no worse than flu
Authors of widely publicized antibody studies “owe us all an apology,” one expert says.
https://arstechnica.com/science/202...ies-suggesting-covid-19-is-no-worse-than-flu/

 

[southall]

A bad flu season.

NYC averages 2000 Flu deaths per year.

NYC is going to be at 20,000 CV dead by the end of the year. More if a bad second wave hits.

And that is after massive counter measures were put in place.

Without those counter measures we were looking at 50,000 deaths in New York by year end.

 

[southall]

https://news.berkeley.edu/2020/04/24/study-challenges-reports-of-low-fatality-rate-for-covid-19/

Really good link.

Suggest death rate is somewhere between 0.5% and 1.0%

"With essentially everyone in Bergamo infected, and the known deaths since January — predicted to be more than 6,000 out of a population of 1 million — it was easy to calculate the lowest possible infected fatality rate: 0.56%.

For Lombardy, the researchers estimated that the lowest possible fatality rate was even higher: about 0.84%. They also estimated that 23% of the population of Lombardy was infected, as of April 18 — on average, 35 times the number of positive tests in the province."

In nearly all towns, the excess deaths in early 2020 exceeded the official count attributed to COVID-19.

The numbers the team came up with are lower limits, the researchers emphasize, since deaths in many Italian towns are not fully up to date.

“Some of my colleagues think that we have been overly conservative, which might be true,” Seljak said. “We have just accounted for the people who have died up until today, but people are still dying.”

 

[wildchild]

Let take a look at the early reported death rate to the final reported death rate of the disease that has the greatest resemblance to COVID-19 -- the 2003 SARS coronavirus epidemic.

"Finally, we shall remember that while the 2003 SARS epidemic was still ongoing, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a fatality rate of 4% (or as low as 3%), whereas the final case fatality rate ended up being 9.6%."

Based on what I have seen so far I expect the IFR will turn out to be 0.7% or 0.8%. But it is very early in the COVID-19 situation and these numbers may change as more studies are done with waste, anti-bodies, etc. to get better clarity on the number of infections.

My thoughts on value of IFR will evolve as more information becomes available. This is only proper in a fluid situation near the start of a pandemic.

You have been wrong on just about everything during this thing. We have yet another post by gwb-trading that has not aged well.

The dude was trashing me before ultimately agreeing with my assessment.

I do have to admit, I do not like the fact that your number and my number are so close.

 

[gwb-trading]

You have been wrong on just about everything during this thing. We have yet another post by gwb-trading that has not aged well.

The dude was trashing me before ultimately agreeing with my assessment.

I do have to admit, I do not like the fact that your number and my number are so close.

You are confused once again. The CASE FATALITY RATE is expected to be 5.8%; this is the figure used to officially count mortality of a disease.

The INFECTION MORTALITY RATE is based on estimates of possible infections. This is expected to be at 0.5% to 0.8%. This is very different than the case mortality rate -- which you were claiming would be below 1% -- -which is obviously incorrect.

It is sad that we need to explain to you and others the difference between CASE FATALITY RATE and INFECTION FATALITY RATE over & over.

Here is a post that provides information in detail.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...more-lethal-than-the-flu.344034/#post-5085538

Let's get to the math....

CFR (Case Fatality Rate) = 67,595 / 1,165,953) = 5.79% Case Fatality Rate in the U.S. for COVID-19
The Case Fatality Rate for the seasonal flu is 0.1% (in a bad flu season).

In the new briefings from Governor Cuomo he estimated the Infection Fatality Rate in the U.S. is between 0.5% to 0.8% for COVID-19. The Infection Fatality Rate for the season flu is 0.025%.

WHO estimated back in January based on Wuhan information that the Case Fatality Rate for COVID-19 was between 2% to 3%. They later revised this value to 3.4%. The most recent projection from WHO for Case Fatality Rate is 5.8% (which the U.S. is close to).

 

[wildchild]

You are confused once again. The CASE FATALITY RATE is expected to be 5.8%; this is the figure used to officially count mortality of a disease.

The INFECTION MORTALITY RATE is based on estimates of possible infections. This is expected to be at 0.5% to 0.8%. This is very different than the case mortality rate -- which you were claiming would be below 1% -- -which is obviously incorrect.

It is sad that we need to explain to you and others the difference between CASE FATALITY RATE and INFECTION FATALITY RATE over & over.

Here is a post that provides information in detail.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...more-lethal-than-the-flu.344034/#post-5085538

Let's get to the math....

CFR (Case Fatality Rate) = 67,595 / 1,165,953) = 5.79% Case Fatality Rate in the U.S. for COVID-19
The Case Fatality Rate for the seasonal flu is 0.1% (in a bad flu season).

In the new briefings from Governor Cuomo he estimated the Infection Fatality Rate in the U.S. is between 0.5% to 0.8% for COVID-19. The Infection Fatality Rate for the season flu is 0.025%.

WHO estimated back in January based on Wuhan information that the Case Fatality Rate for COVID-19 was between 2% to 3%. They later revised this value to 3.4%. The most recent projection from WHO for Case Fatality Rate is 5.8% (which the U.S. is close to).

I am not confused at all asshole. Get lost.

 

[Bugenhagen]

I am not confused at all asshole. Get lost.

You confused them.
Again.
And you will again.
Over your head.

Speaking of, just go and hurt your fingers with a drone again.

 

[wildchild]

You confused them.
Again.
And you will again.
Over your head.

Speaking of, just go and hurt your fingers with a drone again.

It looks like someone ought to lay off of grand dad's cough medicine.

Bugenhagen offers no substance to the conversation. He is a deadbeat living off of government funds.

Not impressive.

 

[Bugenhagen]

It looks like someone ought to lay off of grand dad's cough medicine.

Bugenhagen offers no substance to the conversation. He is a deadbeat living off of government funds.

Not impressive.

Wildforchild claims to be under 50 but has no memory and writes like an elderly boomer.

I live in Colombia, government funds?

Over his head, mind those fingers.

 

[wildchild]

You are confused once again. The CASE FATALITY RATE is expected to be 5.8%; this is the figure used to officially count mortality of a disease.

The INFECTION MORTALITY RATE is based on estimates of possible infections. This is expected to be at 0.5% to 0.8%. This is very different than the case mortality rate -- which you were claiming would be below 1% -- -which is obviously incorrect.

It is sad that we need to explain to you and others the difference between CASE FATALITY RATE and INFECTION FATALITY RATE over & over.

Here is a post that provides information in detail.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...more-lethal-than-the-flu.344034/#post-5085538

Let's get to the math....

CFR (Case Fatality Rate) = 67,595 / 1,165,953) = 5.79% Case Fatality Rate in the U.S. for COVID-19
The Case Fatality Rate for the seasonal flu is 0.1% (in a bad flu season).

In the new briefings from Governor Cuomo he estimated the Infection Fatality Rate in the U.S. is between 0.5% to 0.8% for COVID-19. The Infection Fatality Rate for the season flu is 0.025%.

WHO estimated back in January based on Wuhan information that the Case Fatality Rate for COVID-19 was between 2% to 3%. They later revised this value to 3.4%. The most recent projection from WHO for Case Fatality Rate is 5.8% (which the U.S. is close to).

Your bullshit is not looking any better today than it did a week ago. It is absolutely amazing that you think the WHO is a credible source.