Corona Virus Death Rate will be about .6% to .7%

gwb-trading said:
I am not seeing it consistent with other tests and studies.

In Sweden with no lockdown they are estimated the percentage of their population infected in urban areas to be 3% to 10%.. What makes NY much greater?
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Did sweden do actual antibody tests?

Colorda and Stanford antibody testing suggested around 10 million are infected in the US (3% of the US population)

Using those studies i estimated New york city share of that would be about a quarter of that. So 2.5million at most. Because a quarter of US deaths are in New York.

And that is close enough to what we saw today.

Adding in the NYC results to the Colorado and Stanford results, it looking like just 8 million people are infected in the US population at present.

The anti body tests results from Italy also suggest a death of around 0.6%

Then you had the original Diamond Princess Cruise Ship data from months ago where the death rate was 1.7%. When you adjust for the fact the population on the Cruise ship was older. The death rate for the general population came in around 0.6% to 0.9% based on that study.
 
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southall said:
Did sweden do actual antibody tests?

Colorda and Stanford antibody testing suggested around 10 million are infected in the US (3% of the US population)

Using those studies i estimated New york city share of that would be about a quarter of that. So 2.5million at most. Because a quarter of US deaths are in New York.

And that is close enough to what we saw today.

Adding in the NYC results to the Colorado and Stanford results, it looking like just 8 million people are infected in the US population at present.

The anti body tests results from Italy also suggest a death of around 0.6%

Then you had the original Diamond Princess Cruise Ship data from months ago where the death rate was 1.7%. When you adjust for the fact the population on the Cruise ship was older. The death rate came for the general population came in around 0.6% to 0.9%
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The Stanford results implied that the entire population of NYC is infected. Many experts are demanding that the Stanford authors apologize for their study and methods.

Feud over Stanford coronavirus study: ‘The authors owe us all an apology’
Angry statisticians dispute Santa Clara County research that found high infection rates
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...udy-the-authors-owe-us-all-an-apology.343590/

Even the author of an article about the Stanford study was forced to add the following note at the bottom:
*UPDATE: One caveat is that a rough calculation applying the Santa Clara infection fatality rate to New York City's 11,000 COVID-19 deaths would imply that essentially all of city's residents have already been infected with the coronavirus. This seems implausible.

https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethality-not-much-different-than-flu-says-new-study/
 
gwb-trading said:
The Stanford results implied that the entire population of NYC is infected. Many experts are demanding that the Stanford authors apologize for their study and methods.
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If you look at the raw Stanford data yourself.

Ignore what they said about the data. It suggested about 2 to 3% of the population was infected.

Colorado anti body results suggested the same percentage.

At most 10 million infections in the whole of the US.

And New York City should be a fifth of the US infection total. Because a fifth of US deaths have been in New York City.

And that is what we saw today.

You can extrapolate the other way as well from the New York data.

1.7 million infected in New York City, suggests 8 million infections in the US whole of the US.

Its all basic maths.
 
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Wrong. Covid19 death rate will be far less. Around 0.2%. perhaps less or alittle more.

Average flu is 0.1% death.

Look. CDC says 10% on high end get flu in USA every year.

That's 35 million. If death rate is 0.1% , that's 35,000 deaths per year from flu. Except USA has had as many as 80 to 90,000 deaths per year from flu. So in bad flu season , flu death rate is 0.3%.

Cuomo said NY state numbers are 0.5% yesterday. And that's with lying bullshit numbers from docs and nurses instructed to write covid19 on death certificates to get extra federal money.
 

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gwb-trading said:
A mere 3000 people were tested across the entire state... and only those who happened to be outside when the testers came around. They are extrapolating and jumping to great assumptions based on these results.
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You lack statistical skills. I understand that your doomsday scenario is looking less and less likely, but it begs the question, why are you so invested in doomsday.

BTW, I do not expect a response. Goebbels WB-Trading refuses to reply to any of the facts I have put forward.
 
gwb-trading said:
You have provided no facts. you have no scientific links to studies, etc. to back up your assertions. You simply spend your time calling people "a complete and total moron" if they disagree with the fact-free nonsense you put forward.
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You are incorrect.
 
"An antibody surveillance scheme in the Netherlands suggested the death rate for COVID-19 could actually be in the region of 0.63%.
Dutch researchers found antibodies in 3% of blood donors, after analysing samples from around 7,000 people aged between 18 and 69.
Around 17million people live in the Netherlands. Three per cent of the country's population would equate to approximately 500,000.
When results were published on April 16, official figures showed that 3,315 people had died after testing positive for COVID-19 in the Netherlands."
 
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