Corona Virus Death Rate will be about .6% to .7%

[Tsing Tao]

It may be appropriate to note that as of April 20th the United States is up to 120 deaths per million due to COVID-19. The chart below is nearly two weeks old.

I heard about this guy in Florida who was eaten by an alligator, eventually succumb to Covid 19 complications.

So much bullshit in these death statistics it doesn't even matter anymore, I guess.

 

[jem]

tell us how you know that testing and tracing worked... really.
how many people did they test and trace vs how many people were not traced and why it was successful in mitigating what thousands of cases?

I would love to see stats that explain the RO and why and how the testing and tracing worked, it could help me figure out what is happening here in CA.

Comparing Europe and the U.S. at this point is not meaningful. They are on different points on the pandemic curve. The major hot spot countries in Europe (Italy, Spain, etc.) have passed the peak and have deaths trending down. The. U.S. is trending up but four weeks behind these countries in Europe.

Testing in the E.U. worked very well when combined with contract tracing. A combination that Germany proved worked very well.

"What did all that effort, time and monies really accomplish?" It kept the number of deaths much lower than it would have been otherwise.

 

[gwb-trading]

tell us how you know that testing and tracing worked... really.
how many people did they test and trace vs how many people were not traced and why it was successful in mitigating what thousands of cases?

I would love to see stats that explain the RO and why and how the testing and tracing worked, it could help me figure out what is happening here in CA.

You can take a look at all the articles about Germany and South Korea about the wide-scale testing and full contact tracing that was performed. You can see this reflected in their low death rates and low infection rates. There are also studies and papers outlining the effectiveness of contact tracing in South Korea. Germany has driven COVID-19 which has a raw R0 between 2.2 to 6.8 according most papers down to a mitigated R0 of 0.7 or so -- all due to testing and contact tracing.

I will note that several U.S. states are now hiring hundreds of people to do contact tracing as part of their efforts to eventually "open up". Most states in the U.S. recognize that wide-scale testing with full contact tracing is the entry criteria for "opening up for business".

 

[smallfil]

Comparing Europe and the U.S. at this point is not meaningful. They are on different points on the pandemic curve. The major hot spot countries in Europe (Italy, Spain, etc.) have passed the peak and have deaths trending down. The. U.S. is trending up but four weeks behind these countries in Europe.

Testing in the E.U. worked very well when combined with contract tracing. A combination that Germany proved worked very well.

"What did all that effort, time and monies really accomplish?" It kept the number of deaths much lower than it would have been otherwise.

What is really happening as more people get infected and are asymptomatic, they develop immunity to Corona Virus. So, as more and more get infected and get well, there is less people to infect. It had nothing to do with testing whether one is positive or negative. Had nothing to do with the statistics they compiled which was useless. It did not reduce the deaths but, since, more people are getting infected daily, there are less people getting sick with serious symptoms. The statistics are bogus because the models started with 1,000,000-2,000,000 dead Americans, then, 100,000-200,000 dead Americans to now, 60,000 dead Americans. Each life is precious but, massive testing accomplishes nothing and merely, wastes valuable resources of time, monies and more important effort that could have used to find cures to Corona Virus.

 

[smallfil]

You can take a look at all the articles about Germany and South Korea about the wide-scale testing and full contact tracing that was performed. You can see this reflected in their low death rates and low infection rates. There are also studies and papers outlining the effectiveness of contact tracing in South Korea. Germany has driven COVID-19 which has a raw R0 between 2.2 to 6.8 according most papers down to a mitigated R0 of 0.7 or so -- all due to testing and contact tracing.

I will note that several U.S. states are now hiring hundreds of people to do contact tracing as part of their efforts to eventually "open up". Most states in the U.S. recognize that wide-scale testing with full contact tracing is the entry criteria for "opening up for business".

Japan and South Korea had both low infection rates and low death rates. Japan did not even close its economy. What did they do differently? Their citizens wore masks which the so called experts relying on statistics discounted earlier on. Remember that? Wearing masks reduced infection rates and deaths for obvious reasons.

 

[gwb-trading]

Japan and South Korea had both low infection rates and low death rates. Japan did not even close its economy. What did they do differently? Their citizens wore masks which the so called experts relying on statistics discounted earlier on. Remember that? Wearing masks reduced infection rates and deaths for obvious reasons.

Japan cannot be used as an example. Their government stated their earlier guidance to not close its economy was a mistake; they extended a state of emergency across the entire country 2 days ago making local area governments force people to stay at home. Japan cannot legally enforce hard lockdowns from the federal level; it relies on local leadership.

"Residents can go out for purposes considered essential, including work, hospital visits and grocery shopping, according to a Cabinet Office statement. Residents in designated areas can still go out for a walk, a jog or other individual exercise." Note: "work" means essential work in this statement. So pretty much everyone is staying at home in Japan and not going into workplaces - very much like the U.S.

The doctors in Japan warned the health system was breaking down as the country surged above 10,000 cases.

The infection rate and death rate in South Korea is low because they were prepared to do full testing and contact tracing from the moment COVID-19 showed up. Their previous experiences with SARS and other diseases drove South Korea to be hyper-vigilant and prepared for the next pandemic.

 

[gwb-trading]

What is really happening as more people get infected and are asymptomatic, they develop immunity to Corona Virus. So, as more and more get infected and get well, there is less people to infect. It had nothing to do with testing whether one is positive or negative. Had nothing to do with the statistics they compiled which was useless. It did not reduce the deaths but, since, more people are getting infected daily, there are less people getting sick with serious symptoms. The statistics are bogus because the models started with 1,000,000-2,000,000 dead Americans, then, 100,000-200,000 dead Americans to now, 60,000 dead Americans. Each life is precious but, massive testing accomplishes nothing and merely, wastes valuable resources of time, monies and more important effort that could have used to find cures to Corona Virus.

You need over 60% of the people in a country to be recovered from COVID-19 to provide even minimal "herd immunity". The number of recovered cases in any country is not anywhere near this point. The countries with low infection rates and death rates have everything to do with wide-scale testing and proper contact tracing -- along with social distancing.

It is quite appropriate that models evolve based on the measures taken by government. The 1M-2M deaths in the U.S. was based on minimal mitigation. When stay at home was put in place in many states then the numbers were reduced to 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. When the stay at home measures were put in place even more widely we are down now to 60,000 projected deaths for the first wave. I believe this 60K number will prove to be too low since the models are based on stay at home going on for many months (August) - which is not likely to happen. I expect the U.S. in a matter of weeks will see our death toll skyrocket pass 60,000. as we "open up".

 

[smallfil]

Japan cannot be used as an example. Their government stated their earlier guidance to not close its economy was a mistake; they extended a state of emergency across the entire country 2 days ago making local area governments force people to stay at home. Japan cannot legally enforce hard lockdowns from the federal level; it relies on local leadership.

"Residents can go out for purposes considered essential, including work, hospital visits and grocery shopping, according to a Cabinet Office statement. Residents in designated areas can still go out for a walk, a jog or other individual exercise." Note: "work" means essential work in this statement. So pretty much everyone is staying at home in Japan and not going into workplaces - very much like the U.S.

The doctors in Japan warned the health system was breaking down as the country surged above 10,000 cases.

The infection rate and death rate in South Korea is low because they were prepared to do full testing and contact tracing from the moment COVID-19 showed up. Their previous experiences with SARS and other diseases drove South Korea to be hyper-vigilant and prepared for the next pandemic.

Why cannot Japan be used an example because it does not suit your argument? Imagine 10,674 infections and only 236 deaths? How many cases does the US have? In New York alone, 247,215 infected 18,298 dead and counting? The only common thing between Japan and South Korea is the use of masks yet, both countries did better than the US. Statistics alone will not cure you. More people infected all over reduces the pool of possible infected people so, with less infections, less deaths. So, even with these tests, as more people get infected daily, the pool of infected people shrinks. Those seriously, ill though, will continue to die because we have not done enough to save them.

 

[gwb-trading]

Why cannot Japan be used an example because it does not suit your argument? Imagine 10,674 infections and only 236 deaths? How many cases does the US have? In New York alone, 247,215 infected 18,298 dead and counting? The only common thing between Japan and South Korea is the use of masks yet, both countries did better than the US. Statistics alone will not cure you. More people infected all over reduces the pool of possible infected people so, with less infections, less deaths. So, even with these tests, as more people get infected daily, the pool of infected people shrinks. Those seriously, ill though, will continue to die because we have not done enough to save them.

Let's just wait a few weeks and then compare the statistics in Japan and South Korea.

The only thing that helped Japan is that most companies stopped making people come into work weeks ago and most people stayed at home on their own -- even before the government instituted the emergency order. This reduced impact in Japan was driven by their culture; not by early and effective government action.

With the rapidly rising rates of infection and death in Japan over the past week -- where doctors are warning the hospitals will be overwhelmed -- the outcome in Japan is on a very different course than South Korea.

 

[jem]

herd immunity depends on the RO.
its not automatically 60 percent

and if you isolate those with pre-existing the RO its is of course much lower.
so today you provided a new Idea... a dynamic RO number...
Good, you are getting closer to what I have been saying.

now CA vs New York vs some other state...

you really think we should be looking at this country by country...

Finally,

I looked at the articles on germany...
and I read said they were not even close to testing everyone.
they had plenty of problems early and their testing improved but they had long way to go.

I would like to see the articles you are referencing.

You can take a look at all the articles about Germany and South Korea about the wide-scale testing and full contact tracing that was performed. You can see this reflected in their low death rates and low infection rates. There are also studies and papers outlining the effectiveness of contact tracing in South Korea. Germany has driven COVID-19 which has a raw R0 between 2.2 to 6.8 according most papers down to a mitigated R0 of 0.7 or so -- all due to testing and contact tracing.

I will note that several U.S. states are now hiring hundreds of people to do contact tracing as part of their efforts to eventually "open up". Most states in the U.S. recognize that wide-scale testing with full contact tracing is the entry criteria for "opening up for business".

You need over 60% of the people in a country to be recovered from COVID-19 to provide even minimal "herd immunity". The number of recovered cases in any country is not anywhere near this point. The countries with low infection rates and death rates have everything to do with wide-scale testing and proper contact tracing -- along with social distancing.

It is quite appropriate that models evolve based on the measures taken by government. The 1M-2M deaths in the U.S. was based on minimal mitigation. When stay at home was put in place in many states then the numbers were reduced to 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. When the stay at home measures were put in place even more widely we are down now to 60,000 projected deaths for the first wave. I believe this 60K number will prove to be too low since the models are based on stay at home going on for many months (August) - which is not likely to happen. I expect the U.S. in a matter of weeks will see our death toll skyrocket pass 60,000. as we "open up".