Corona Virus Death Rate will be about .6% to .7%

[Snarkhund]

The Stanford results implied that the entire population of NYC is infected. Many experts are demanding that the Stanford authors apologize for their study and methods.

Feud over Stanford coronavirus study: ‘The authors owe us all an apology’
Angry statisticians dispute Santa Clara County research that found high infection rates
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...udy-the-authors-owe-us-all-an-apology.343590/

Even the author of an article about the Stanford study was forced to add the following note at the bottom:
*UPDATE: One caveat is that a rough calculation applying the Santa Clara infection fatality rate to New York City's 11,000 COVID-19 deaths would imply that essentially all of city's residents have already been infected with the coronavirus. This seems implausible.

https://reason.com/2020/04/17/covid-19-lethality-not-much-different-than-flu-says-new-study/

The basic design of that study was seriously flawed so the result is a bit dodgy. I do, however, hold with the premise that many have already been infected. A good blind study is needed on a large scale. That ought to be a federal effort.

On the wildly anecdotal side, most of the cruisers here I've talked to say they had *something* back in January and early February. I had flu symptoms but also gastric distress and eye problems. Not pink eye or conjunctivitis just pain and constant discharge. I also had some lymph node swelling and spent an afternoon at the hospital. I thought it was a reaction to my flu shot. Something ripped through the Western hemisphere in January. Regular flu?

 

[Hotcakes]

Fail

In a bad season, Flu infects more people. So more die.

The death rate % stays pretty much the same

^You have zero proof of that. That's an assumption you made which you cannot back up. Flus vary in infectiousness and strength. Some are stronger then others. Some are more infectious then others..... every year its a new few strains. Mutations etc etc. You're assuming buddy with zero proof.

In fact, I'll prove that you're wrong right now:


Lets assume ur right for a moment. and the death rate of all flus is the same.

And all flus kill the same percentage of people, as YOU SAY, and the only difference in death count is total number of persons infected.

CDC says on the high end 11% of Americans catch the flu every year. This is from the CDC's website verbatim (3% to 11%).

11% x 350 million = 38.5 million flu infections x 0.1% lethality rate = 38K deaths a year.

So why, in many years, is the number of flu deaths double, and in some cases, almost triple that number???!

Cause the lethality rate is much higher for some strainzzzzzzz..... some flus are stronger then others, dummy.


Therefore, in a bad flu season, the lethality rate is around 0.3% of those infected. Which is on par with covid19. Doesn't matter. We're debating semantics now. Its been proven through NY State data, Stanford Study, Sweden, that the lethality rate for COVID19 is between 0.1 - 0.4%.

MOVE THE FUCK ON> ITS NOT THAT BAD> UR PUSHING ECONOMIC DESTRUCTION OF AMERICA TO DEPOSE TRUMP>

 

[Hotcakes]

On the wildly anecdotal side, most of the cruisers here I've talked to say they had *something* back in January and early February. I had flu symptoms but also gastric distress and eye problems. Not pink eye or conjunctivitis just pain and constant discharge. I also had some lymph node swelling and spent an afternoon at the hospital. I thought it was a reaction to my flu shot. Something ripped through the Western hemisphere in January. Regular flu?

Ya we all had it here too. 7 people on the property I live on had it. All the symptoms. Passed through Mid Jan - Mid Feb. Strong. I was run down at the time. No sleep etc. etc.

 

[Hotcakes]

The basic design of that study was seriously flawed so the result is a bit dodgy. I do, however, hold with the premise that many have already been infected. A good blind study is needed on a large scale. That ought to be a federal effort.

On the wildly anecdotal side, most of the cruisers here I've talked to say they had *something* back in January and early February. I had flu symptoms but also gastric distress and eye problems. Not pink eye or conjunctivitis just pain and constant discharge. I also had some lymph node swelling and spent an afternoon at the hospital. I thought it was a reaction to my flu shot. Something ripped through the Western hemisphere in January. Regular flu?

The Standford study was too small, but the numbers are all coming in around the same range.

NY State data on the high end. Lethality ~0.5% (probably much lower as time goes as the most vulnerable have already succumbed to covid19 >>>> recovered pop grows and death rates decline.

Standford study lethality = 0.1 - 0.2%.

Sweden looks like around 0.2%.

Its all in the the same range. Around 0.2% - 0.4%.

Lets the move the fuck on.

FURTHER, I will say this. THERE IS ZERO DATA THAT SUPPORTS THE DOOMERS CHARGE OF A SUPER HIGH LETHALITY RATE. ZERO. NONE.

They're just spewing CNN crap,.

 

[Hotcakes]

I am not seeing it consistent with other tests and studies.

In Sweden with no lockdown they are estimated the percentage of their population infected in urban areas to be 3% to 10%.. What makes NY much greater?

Based on what? We just saw a study that 20% of Stolkholm already has the antibodies?

 

[southall]

Based on what? We just saw a study that 20% of Stolkholm already has the antibodies?

The Stolkholm study that claimed 11% antibodies has been WITHDRAWN as it was BS.

"Want to be honest"
In the coming weeks, they will start over from the beginning. The tests already done will be scrapped.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/nya-antikroppstestet-baserat-pa-osakert-underlag

 

[Hotcakes]

"An antibody surveillance scheme in the Netherlands suggested the death rate for COVID-19 could actually be in the region of 0.63%.
Dutch researchers found antibodies in 3% of blood donors, after analysing samples from around 7,000 people aged between 18 and 69.
Around 17million people live in the Netherlands. Three per cent of the country's population would equate to approximately 500,000.
When results were published on April 16, official figures showed that 3,315 people had died after testing positive for COVID-19 in the Netherlands."

Lets put this another way.

Open question to the DOOMERS.

What data do you have that proves a high lethality rate for COVID19?

What data sample are you using? NY State has the worst worst worst outcomes because their population density is highest and an international travel destination. Even then, Cuomo is saying the 0.5% death rate is likely to come down as the most vulnerable have already succumbed to the illness.

So where is the data that shows a 1% death rate? Or a 2% death rate ? Or 3% ? Or 5%?

Where the fuck is it? It doesn't exist.

 

[Hotcakes]

The Stolkholm study that claimed 11% antibodies has been WITHDRAWN as it was BS.

"Want to be honest"
In the coming weeks, they will start over from the beginning. The tests already done will be scrapped.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/nya-antikroppstestet-baserat-pa-osakert-underlag

It doesn't look like you're referring to the same study.

The Stockholm study claimed 20% had antibodies. Not 11%.

Is that the same study?

Tegnell said sampling and modeling data indicated that 20% of Stockholm’s population is already immune to the virus,
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-...ockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html


FURTHER. The NY STATE NUMBERS ARE THE BEST WE HAVE. IN THE WORST STATE WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS. And Cuomo citing a 0.5% death rate. And said it would go lower as the vulnerable have already died from this and virus continues to spread.

Again. Where is ur data that PROVES A SUPER HIGH DEATH RATE = doesn't exist.

NY will end up around 0.4% or less. BEAR IN MIND, that docs and nurses across the country are told to write covid19 on every death certificate for Federal Money. Bear in mind, NOBODY DIES FROM THE REGULAR FLU ANYMORE.... lol

So the numerator is way overstated. There isn't 50K covid19 deaths in America. Maybe 40k? Maybe 30k?

WHERE IS UR DATA, DOOMER?!?!

 

[southall]

So where is the data that shows a 1% death rate? Or a 2% death rate ? Or 3% ? Or 5%?

No one is claiming 1 to 5% anymore.

Its looking like somewhere around 0.5%

That is only half the picture, the other half is the total number of people it can infect.

CV is also way more infectious than Flu. At least 5 times.

Flu infects 40 million people, CV could infect 200 million, if no counter measures are used eg lockdowns and social distancing.

This makes it 5x5 or 25 times more deadly than flu.

NewYork is already at Flu x 6 in deaths after 3 months. (On average just 2000 people die of Flu in NYC each year)

NYC will be Flu x 10 by the end of year in there is another wave in the fall.

Without lockdowns the 12000 New York deaths we have currently would be at 20,000+ already.

 

[Hotcakes]

No one is claiming 1 to 5% anymore.

Its looking like somewhere between around 0.5%

That is only half the picture, the other half is the total number of people it can infect.

CV is also way more infectious than Flu. At least 5 times.

Flu infects 40 million people, CV COULD infect 200 million, if no counter measures are used eg lockdowns and social distancing.

This makes 5x5 or 25 times more deadly than flu.

NewYork is already at Flu x 6 in deaths after 3 months. Will easily hit Flu x 10 by the end of year in there is another wave in the fall.

Without lockdowns the 12000 New York deaths we have currently would be at 20,000+ already.

Do you see where this is going 0.2 - 0.4% death rate. A bad flu season.

Now we're debating body counts instead of death rates.

1st. Docs and nurses are told to write COVID19 on all death certificates for Federal Money. Thats a fact you continue to ignore. So the total national death count is way over-stated.

2nd. NOBODY DIES FROM THE REGULAR FLU ANYMORE. Its all COVID19 Deaths !!! Which is another lie. Again, the death totals are OVERSTATED.

3rd. You're ASSUMING CV is far more infectious then a strong flu. We don't know that or have any proof of that. Again. Resorting to fear porn. In a strong flu season, only 11% of Americans catch it. What about the other 89%? Maybe they're just naturally immune to it?

Do we even know for a fact, if someone who doesn't have the antibodies for covid19 WILL CATCH covid19 if exposed? Do we know that? Cause the same math holds true for the regular flu. Not everyone catches it. In fact, only 10% of the population catch the cold. So why would CV be any different? Based on what evidence?