Cornix's TA Performance

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

This is a great lesson happening live here. Show a chart to 3 technical analysts and get 4 opinions on its meaning ---- TA at its best is subjective , at its worst dangerous portfolio witchcraft. surf

Wrong. TA can be very objective. Which doesn't mean every trader uses the same TA signals, because there is a variety of time frames and possible points of entry/exit depending on what kind of action trader prefers to exploit.

 

[cornix]

Quote from Pekelo:

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but it has been almost 2 months, and it is breakeven/down performance. Not exactly what one wanted to see.... After 7 weeks we should have seen some kind of consistency....

I guess it is consistently breakeven...

To be honest... I care less about the show component of this thread.

Consistently break-even, losing or winning... time will show.

One thing for sure: it's not something that usually impresses trading theoreticians which are prevalent on ET. And not going to be, ever.

 

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

All it take is one get lucky month to post a great year. The longer he keeps trying, as long as there's no big losses, luck will enter the game allowing for a nicely positive year.

surf

Here you speak as a real trader, Surf. Finally I would like to say!

Happened to catch 20+ handle runs, happened to catch 7-8 smaller winners in a row being called live. All the same method.

To be profitable it requires just... not losing much and eventually making something. As for slow performing dull periods... who cares?

 

[cornix]

Quote from Pekelo:

Maybe so, but that is not the point of this journal. This journal is supposed to prove that TA works, so it should have a consistent (even if small) profitable outcome.

So far it has been proving that the TA Cornix is using is a coinflipp at best...

Correct, so far it's basically break-even after commissions. But there are different methods with different definitions of consistency. This method is very profitable over the year so far, not profitable since the start of the journal, yes. Oh well...

 

[hitchslap]

I'm no expert, but I get the feeling that the current market conditions aren't favourable for Cornix's method, however, he's still keeping his head above water.
It's not as though he's hemorrhaging money. He's around break-even.
I think that when the conditions change, he'll probably start killing the market.
I guess if you can break even when the market isn't playing ball, then you're doing OK.

 

[cornix]

Quote from hitchslap:

I'm no expert, but I get the feeling that the current market conditions aren't favourable for Cornix's method, however, he's still keeping his head above water.
It's not as though he's hemorrhaging money. He's around break-even.
I think that when the conditions change, he'll probably start killing the market.
I guess if you can break even when the market isn't playing ball, then you're doing OK.

Yea it works like that. Every strategy besides probably high frequency scalping has good or bad periods. If you know what to expect it's no biggie to sit through the poor period with just little scratches and no deep scars knowing the better times come and you kill the buffalo.

 

[hitchslap]

I still wonder if this TA stuff is 'enough', but i'm yet to find any real alternative, so I hope you're right.

I'm working on something new for now, and i'm just sticking with GBPUSD at the moment.

Weeks results:

 

[cornix]

Quote from hitchslap:

I still wonder if this TA stuff is 'enough', but i'm yet to find any real alternative, so I hope you're right.

I'm working on something new for now, and i'm just sticking with GBPUSD at the moment.

Weeks results:

TA is how I make a living for a few years already. Of course it's not "just" TA. Wrbtrader points it out well. It's TA + money/trade management + self-control + statistics etc.

But reason to enter trade for me is always TA. Reason to exit can be TA or statistics, depending on situation.

I am not sure if MAE/MFE stats can be considered derivative of TA or thing by it's own.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from cornix:

Here you speak as a real trader, Surf. Finally I would like to say!

Happened to catch 20+ handle runs, happened to catch 7-8 smaller winners in a row being called live. All the same method.

To be profitable it requires just... not losing much and eventually making something. As for slow performing dull periods... who cares?

Thanks, and I say you are finally getting very close to market reality. You will realize that you can remove your style of TA-- price action or whatever from the entry equation, keep doing everything else exactly the same--- and guess what- -LUCK will still play the same role allowing you to end the year nicely positively as long as you dont lose alot and keep plunging--- here's how the real pro's think about luck:

http://www.lmcm.com/868299.pdf

http://www.amazon.com/books/dp/1422184234

surf

 

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Thanks, and I say you are finally getting very close to market reality. You will realize that you can remove your style of TA-- price action or whatever from the entry equation, keep doing everything else exactly the same--- and guess what- -LUCK will still play the same role allowing you to end the year nicely positively as long as you dont lose alot and keep plunging--- here's how the real pro's think about luck:

http://www.lmcm.com/868299.pdf

http://www.amazon.com/books/dp/1422184234

surf

Surf, I simply can't deny the reality of certain levels being respected by the market with amazing consistency. If I stop considering them I'll miss significant part of important trading info. It's 100% objective, believe me.