Great...
Bye! Make sure you don't come back now... You don't want to look like someone who can't keep their word!
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Cooltraderdude's TopstepTrader Combine (daily trade report and journal)
- Thread starter TST_Hoag
- Start date
Great...
Bye! Make sure you don't come back now... You don't want to look like someone who can't keep their word!
I worked for a firm that recruited me off of elite several years ago. They recruited many traders from elite-- the difference is, they provided a real edge to the traders-- an almost guaranteed money making method using option arbitrage and their software. All one needed to do was follow the rules and nearly every trade would be a small winner. Guess what? most couldn't even follow the rules.
Looking back on this experience-- I would place the odds of failure with this program close to 100%. It will attract many, armchair analyst types and others who love the market. However, those attracted by such a program are the very people least suited for the market. It's a great effort, but unless there is something i don't know, its doomed.
With this said, i hope you beat these obvious odds, cooltraderdude, and prove my theory wrong! But, i am not betting on it.
best, surf
Looking back on this experience-- I would place the odds of failure with this program close to 100%. It will attract many, armchair analyst types and others who love the market. However, those attracted by such a program are the very people least suited for the market. It's a great effort, but unless there is something i don't know, its doomed.
With this said, i hope you beat these obvious odds, cooltraderdude, and prove my theory wrong! But, i am not betting on it.
best, surf
Quote from marketsurfer:
I worked for a firm that recruited me off of elite several years ago. They recruited many traders from elite-- the difference is, they provided a real edge to the traders-- an almost guaranteed money making method using option arbitrage and their software. All one needed to do was follow the rules and nearly every trade would be a small winner. Guess what? most couldn't even follow the rules.
Looking back on this experience-- I would place the odds of failure with this program close to 100%. It will attract many, armchair analyst types and others who love the market. However, those attracted by such a program are the very people least suited for the market. It's a great effort, but unless there is something i don't know, its doomed. best, surf
Your post about the "edge" is spot on... I had a real physical edge in the NYSE maket as well working for a prop firm... that disappeared when the Specialist became computerized...
Now it's all about position trading for long swings... Here is the contradiction...
If I do what I did yesterday I get criticized for playing to loose... If I do what I do today you take a bunch of smaller losses and just lose.
The trading industry is full of bullshit contradictions...
FOR THE RECORD
I'm not affiliated with TST in any way... My opinions are my own and don't reflect them in any way.
Quote from marketsurfer:
I worked for a firm that recruited me off of elite several years ago. They recruited many traders from elite-- the difference is, they provided a real edge to the traders-- an almost guaranteed money making method using option arbitrage and their software. All one needed to do was follow the rules and nearly every trade would be a small winner. Guess what? most couldn't even follow the rules.
Looking back on this experience-- I would place the odds of failure with this program close to 100%. It will attract many, armchair analyst types and others who love the market. However, those attracted by such a program are the very people least suited for the market. It's a great effort, but unless there is something i don't know, its doomed. best, surf
Surf the model will work fine as long as the failure rates are consistent with the historical 90% to 95% norm. If 5% to 10% are successful, TST will be fine. They have funded 27 traders that are live right now. I believe we did the math earlier on this thread and they are barely hitting it but they are around 5%. Ideally they should try to hit that 10% mark but that is going to be tough since they are not screening guys. But the "not screening" part is what guys like about it. If a guy wants to get screened all he has to do is send his resume to TMG and they will get rejected before they can hit re-fresh on their i-phone.
Have a look at this chart...
If you played with tight stops you probably would have lost... If you played with loose stops... You probably would have lost... Doesn't matter which way you went... You would have lost!
The only way you would have won is if you predicted that it would turn down at 145625 or if you predicted that it would turn bullish at 145125.
Anything else and you're screwed...
Went with tight stops short... LOST... Went with loose stops long... LOST...!
Had I gone with loose stops short lower down... I would have lost LOST...!
If you played with tight stops you probably would have lost... If you played with loose stops... You probably would have lost... Doesn't matter which way you went... You would have lost!
The only way you would have won is if you predicted that it would turn down at 145625 or if you predicted that it would turn bullish at 145125.
Anything else and you're screwed...
Went with tight stops short... LOST... Went with loose stops long... LOST...!
Had I gone with loose stops short lower down... I would have lost LOST...!
Attachments
Quote from CoolTraderDude:
Have a look at this chart...
If you played with tight stops you probably would have lost... If you played with loose stops... You probably would have lost... Doesn't matter which way you went... You would have lost!
The only way you would have won is if you predicted that it would turn down at 145625 or if you predicted that it would turn bullish at 145125.
Anything else and you're screwed...
Do...not...trade...ES.
you will be criticized for breathing on the net,ignore it,the bullshit contradictions are as intentional as the crooked barrel on a rifle at the carnival,we need to be detectives and spot the misnomers and profit off of themQuote from CoolTraderDude:
If I do what I did yesterday I get criticized for playing to loose... If I do what I do today you take a bunch of smaller losses and just lose.
The trading industry is full of bullshit contradictions...
.
Here's the bottom line and what I want to accomplish here at ET.
HONESTY and ACCOUNTABILITY..
What cooltraderdude said was honest and shows accountability. That is what real traders have and what we should all support. I have evaluated traders for over two years and have seen thousands trade. I have been in the pits, and in trading rooms for screen only. I have friends that run prop firms.. Not puffing anything up but the point is ... We are not ALL good at this and that actually a very small number are good at this enough to make this their only income.
So with that said. Why not encourage each other and support those that share with us the REAL truth.... There are times when people see the market well and other times where they just don't have it. There are many traders who could have saved a lot of money if they recognized the best days are behind them. There are many that don't know the best days could be in front of them and there are traders that are having their best days right now. Lets be a team on this... if not on the entire forum at least here on this thread...
mp
HONESTY and ACCOUNTABILITY..
What cooltraderdude said was honest and shows accountability. That is what real traders have and what we should all support. I have evaluated traders for over two years and have seen thousands trade. I have been in the pits, and in trading rooms for screen only. I have friends that run prop firms.. Not puffing anything up but the point is ... We are not ALL good at this and that actually a very small number are good at this enough to make this their only income.
So with that said. Why not encourage each other and support those that share with us the REAL truth.... There are times when people see the market well and other times where they just don't have it. There are many traders who could have saved a lot of money if they recognized the best days are behind them. There are many that don't know the best days could be in front of them and there are traders that are having their best days right now. Lets be a team on this... if not on the entire forum at least here on this thread...
mp