Fine, but my question was whether he would be "great, or a colossal fucking disaster" (your words). I'm not convinced the market is necessarily voting on that issue one way or the other. My question about "smart money" was figurative. The question is, Which of the two do you think he's more likely to become? Serious question, and I'm not looking to argue or debate it. Just curious.
I honestly have no clue, if he actuallly gets a 35% tariff through on all foreign products it could start a trade war, on the other hand, since all these countries currently have tariffs on the U.S. including Canada with the VAT tax, maybe they will accept that the U.S. is fighting back, and its just a bargaining chip so that the U.S. can negotiate better trade terms, if it turns into a trade war markets could crumble, if it turns into a situation where The U.S. simply negotiates better trade terms markets could boom.
A strong U.S. consumer is good for the emerging markets since they all rely on the U.S. consumer for their economies so if jobs stay here and the economy booms, it could end up being a boom worldwide.