Contrarian Trader Tops And Bottom

[tomorton]

I have traded very long term commodities since 1991, 60% of what I have accumulated in my 401k self directed, I strictly do extremes, some trades has been more than seven years in durations. I have recently, well...past five years have increased many aspects of my system to generate much more signals, but all add-on signals done, most would insist trend has changed. My high risk tolerance has increased through the years and have found how to reduce the risk to almost nil. And yet my profitable overall trade situations by the years seldom change from 5-15% of trades are profitable. The trades themselves have become very complicated and had to become automated, am old at 61, memory not as keen any more, can't scalp more than three markets either. Longer term trades I find very interesting as you either learn to spread well and sell options or you make no money, ex earlier Eurodollars where nearly topping for very long time and have come down. Although the exciting markets do many huge sums when I have nailed extremes, sometimes takes years before they happen, so have to be very content to make little during some years and huge on couple years, like I started going short Indexes April of 2016, have targets for 10% of the position and made some of those and 90% get stopped out at breakevens, maybe finally found the highs this year, don't know and be honest don't care, eventually everything rotates. My system does have indicators and have added Quantum physics for better cycle expectations, despite having indicators, I am a very good chartist but am very open minded to use whatever that will expand my edges. To each it's own.

In stocks have a limited system based on the above but much shorter time frame as stocks 65% of the time goes up, trend is your friend and all that bs.

Day trading/scalping average down on everything, don't recommend, most signals catching falling brick.

Long term Commodities risk is next to nothing and at times positive expectancy, huge reward to risk with now many add-on signals but very low percent profitable, scalping is opposite-very high winning percentages with great risk to reward, it does not get any better than this for me at this point. Perhaps down the road when I learn differently... But very short term trading has the greatest risk for me, even after 34 years of it.

Most don't like long term cause they lack patience and "no action" in long term, also they have no money and lack education, I like boring. I like very smooth equity curves and low drawdowns.
Good luck.

What sort of TA convinced you to short indices from April 2016? And what made did you stop?

 

[padutrader]

In your experience what is fighting the trend?

 

[Scataphagos]

So fire away your comments and thoughts. And let me know your thoughts on contrarian trading and trading the tops and bottoms of a market and I ll add my framework for how I trade them over time.

If you're proficient in "Price TA", you can pick where you might play for top/bottom. "Take a shot, with stop".

Paul Tudor Jones once said, "I've made 10 times more money picking tops and bottoms than I ever made trying to avoid picking them".

FWIW....

 

[CALLumbus]

amateurs believe that a fast furious move up or down is a trend because of it's speed AND power. pros will be fading such obvious moves.Why because it is relatively high

amateurs also do not believe that a slow grinding move,can be a trend.these can go on for ever :because these are not relatively high

You have some golden nugget here... now go and trade it !

 

[padutrader]

You have some golden nugget here... now go and trade it !

 

[qxr1011]

I have asked other traders and other forums and most repsonses are you can't trade the top .

instead of "You", meaning nobody, those traders should of say " I"

what is a top or a bottom

this is the legit comment

and the answer to that - the top or the bottom is the end of the corresponding trend in the related chart's period

you can only see the top and bottom in hindsight after the trend is over...

this is classic !


So the main question is - Is it possible to find (anticipate) the beginning and the end of the trend... and we are not talking post-factum

the answer is yes,

expected reply to my answer - how?

contra-reply: maybe you also want the key from the apartment where the money is stored

 

[qxr1011]

as for being the contrarian

any good trader is a contrarian to the general public which runs the market like the chicken without a head

that how money is made

trader follows the method not the crowd

the method (trader) assesses the crowd's movement so far and anticipates the next one, and the next and the next

its a mix of reaction and pre-action - reacting on movement so far to predict the next step

actually trader is not as contrarian as its seems , he just sees the end or the beginning before others see it...

 

[Handle123]

What sort of TA convinced you to short indices from April 2016? And what made did you stop?

I use monthly bars and use a percentage of the past, when prices enters zones, I then drop down to smaller timeframe and wait for a pattern that happens at all extremes of the time, and no...no offering the pattern. I have hedged for many years and have gotten very good at it. Plus, I have spent much time understand when wave tops/bottoms occur to hedge open profits, and all the while dancing options around the positions for little extra. And I never stop till I find the highs that hold, longest amount of shorts to date have been 23 in crude oil when it went to 147, finally hit the top and my aim in to add on way down and nail 75-90% of ten year range, which eventually I do. Many rollovers but rather do futures than ETFs to have more funds to do more volume in futures. You have to be patient when doing manual but now all automated.

 

[birgitta_stockholm]

So fire away your comments and thoughts. And let me know your thoughts on contrarian trading and trading the tops and bottoms of a market and I ll add my framework for how I trade them over time.

Don’t squander this opp to discuss the subject that thus far after 200 years of market analysis, has come to a grinding halt, dead stop with TREND FOLLOWING. Quite an accomplishment and it works, works, works. But exploration has died there.

Beyond TF is No Man’s Land. At ET calling tops/bottoms is frowned upon and trend following is only done in hindsight. 99.99% will tell you it can’t be done. They said the same about E=mc squared. Nothing is impossible

 

[birgitta_stockholm]

God visited your thread and dropped a nugget, nobody saw it. He said in a nutshell all verrrrrrry experienced traders trade tops/bottoms and that even a 1-min chart has top/bottoms and trend reversal.

It rare for God to show up like this. His name is TraderGod.

Do this: quit discussing this as a pie in the sky coffeeshop namby pamby disc, and instead use the golden opp we have NOW, the current Dow Jones top of Jan 26. Ask all to put up a trade in real time in your thread and watch all except God stampede to the exit