i like this
i like it because you are focusing on what the MARKET IS DOING NOT ON SOME SYSTEM
Contrarian Trader Tops And Bottom
- Thread starter nasir
- Start date
i like it because you are focusing on what the MARKET IS DOING NOT ON SOME SYSTEM
sell high [top] buy low [bottom]
notice i did not say the top and the bottom.
high is relative high-this concept is important and is not stressed enough by experts/vendors.
beginners know ema momentum pullbacks.....but they have no idea of this vital concept.
markets wave because the minute the high of a bar is broken, the market is relatively high and
sellers mediately come like an hungry lion
even if not many traders talk of this relative high and relative low and i am very surprised that they do not because it is trigger and reason for every transaction on this planet.
the irony is even though no one understands this the market continuously comes down from highs and moves up from lows.This may mean the big boys understand this but are keeping it secret.
the market therefore is always in the moment,while traders live in the past, and is truly short term in nature
This is the reason almost all traders,including myself,till recently, are always on the wrong side of the market.
This is why many retailers declare ' discounted' sales to fool the public that prices are relatively low and is the reason this fraud attracts many people
notice i did not say the top and the bottom.
high is relative high-this concept is important and is not stressed enough by experts/vendors.
beginners know ema momentum pullbacks.....but they have no idea of this vital concept.
markets wave because the minute the high of a bar is broken, the market is relatively high and
sellers mediately come like an hungry lion
even if not many traders talk of this relative high and relative low and i am very surprised that they do not because it is trigger and reason for every transaction on this planet.
the irony is even though no one understands this the market continuously comes down from highs and moves up from lows.This may mean the big boys understand this but are keeping it secret.
the market therefore is always in the moment,while traders live in the past, and is truly short term in nature
This is the reason almost all traders,including myself,till recently, are always on the wrong side of the market.
This is why many retailers declare ' discounted' sales to fool the public that prices are relatively low and is the reason this fraud attracts many people
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Indeed the pros are trading the order flow the average trader is trading old data points
I have traded very long term commodities since 1991, 60% of what I have accumulated in my 401k self directed, I strictly do extremes, some trades has been more than seven years in durations. I have recently, well...past five years have increased many aspects of my system to generate much more signals, but all add-on signals done, most would insist trend has changed. My high risk tolerance has increased through the years and have found how to reduce the risk to almost nil. And yet my profitable overall trade situations by the years seldom change from 5-15% of trades are profitable. The trades themselves have become very complicated and had to become automated, am old at 61, memory not as keen any more, can't scalp more than three markets either. Longer term trades I find very interesting as you either learn to spread well and sell options or you make no money, ex earlier Eurodollars where nearly topping for very long time and have come down. Although the exciting markets do many huge sums when I have nailed extremes, sometimes takes years before they happen, so have to be very content to make little during some years and huge on couple years, like I started going short Indexes April of 2016, have targets for 10% of the position and made some of those and 90% get stopped out at breakevens, maybe finally found the highs this year, don't know and be honest don't care, eventually everything rotates. My system does have indicators and have added Quantum physics for better cycle expectations, despite having indicators, I am a very good chartist but am very open minded to use whatever that will expand my edges. To each it's own.
In stocks have a limited system based on the above but much shorter time frame as stocks 65% of the time goes up, trend is your friend and all that bs.
Day trading/scalping average down on everything, don't recommend, most signals catching falling brick.
Long term Commodities risk is next to nothing and at times positive expectancy, huge reward to risk with now many add-on signals but very low percent profitable, scalping is opposite-very high winning percentages with great risk to reward, it does not get any better than this for me at this point. Perhaps down the road when I learn differently... But very short term trading has the greatest risk for me, even after 34 years of it.
Most don't like long term cause they lack patience and "no action" in long term, also they have no money and lack education, I like boring. I like very smooth equity curves and low drawdowns.
Good luck.
In stocks have a limited system based on the above but much shorter time frame as stocks 65% of the time goes up, trend is your friend and all that bs.
Day trading/scalping average down on everything, don't recommend, most signals catching falling brick.
Long term Commodities risk is next to nothing and at times positive expectancy, huge reward to risk with now many add-on signals but very low percent profitable, scalping is opposite-very high winning percentages with great risk to reward, it does not get any better than this for me at this point. Perhaps down the road when I learn differently... But very short term trading has the greatest risk for me, even after 34 years of it.
Most don't like long term cause they lack patience and "no action" in long term, also they have no money and lack education, I like boring. I like very smooth equity curves and low drawdowns.
Good luck.
Robert Morse
Sponsor
That is not my experiance. I find the most consistent traders follow, no not fight the trend. As long as you have a good process, both can work.
i understand what you are saying
it is impossible to make money fighting the trend.
there are so many trends at play at the same time.
a scalper may catch a one minute trend.
it is always relative high or low that the consistent traders are seeing
so in the wider sense....
some replied that this is obvious; but if it is obvious, how do so many many traders say 5M or M1 is noise?
it is obvious that if you are trading M1 your target may be only small.
everything in trading is obvious: yet traders look for secret ways to trade,do not share what they are doing......and it is equally obvious why 95% of traders lose money,if indeed that is true.
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I would hope this would be true, since there have been clear trends for at least 20 or 30 years now. It's kind of like saying most people who spend winter in Switzerland in the constant snowfall ... like to ski instead of cliff dive. We would hope so! But markets change, and even bull markets come to an end, markets can trade sideways for years, decades in some circumstances (Nikkei for example). Even trend following may cease to be the dominate trade some day.
so a 1 year trend is not a trend. it is noise!
i have traded a 10 min trend;
this the joke that Wall Street has been playing on the traders.
a trend need not be long; this is why a ten minute trend is called noise by traders!.
the trend is your friend. true but you may find a lot of friends
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amateurs believe that a fast furious move up or down is a trend because of it's speed AND power. pros will be fading such obvious moves.Why because it is relatively high
amateurs also do not believe that a slow grinding move,can be a trend.these can go on for ever :because these are not relatively high
amateurs also do not believe that a slow grinding move,can be a trend.these can go on for ever :because these are not relatively high
In your experience what is fighting the trend?