Contemplation of a bored mind...

johnarb

johnarb

Read a tweet yesterday that I thought was great, but only a crypto hodler would understand or relate to.

I've been through the bear market (crypto winter) of 2014 - 2016, and have read stories of the earlier booms and busts of bitcoin - hundreds of percent spikes and 90%+ crashes.

In the last 6 months, my crypto portfolio has experienced volatility extremes of -55% and +118% without me doing anything but hodling (no trading).

So, let's say,

1. Bull market in crypto in the next 2 years?
a. No - crypto investors lose everything and are idiots?
b. Yes - Will the crypto investors be labeled as lucky again?
c. Price stays flat - crypto investors are ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1196481597446320130
 
johnarb said:
Read a tweet yesterday that I thought was great, but only a crypto hodler would understand or relate to.

I've been through the bear market (crypto winter) of 2014 - 2016, and have read stories of the earlier booms and busts of bitcoin - hundreds of percent spikes and 90%+ crashes.

In the last 6 months, my crypto portfolio has experienced volatility extremes of -55% and +118% without me doing anything but hodling (no trading).

So, let's say,

1. Bull market in crypto in the next 2 years?
a. No - crypto investors lose everything and are idiots?
b. Yes - Will the crypto investors be labeled as lucky again?
c. Price stays flat - crypto investors are ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1196481597446320130
More...

I have posted about this before.... https://coinmarketcap.com/es/ currently at $225b it is over valued... for a new technology that has found no practical use... and looks like the whole thing will just be good for money laundering in the dark web.

so say $100b is fair value, then everything needs to cut in half... and maybe over shoot to $50b, that would be a value pocket that may worth investing.

think about it..AMZN currently at $870b.... would you rather own all the coins in the world, or 1/4 of AMZN? to me it's a no brainer, 1/4 of AMZN worths so much more than all these strings of numbers created out of thin air.
 
dozu888 said:
I have posted about this before.... https://coinmarketcap.com/es/ currently at $225b it is over valued... for a new technology that has found no practical use... and looks like the whole thing will just be good for money laundering in the dark web.

so say $100b is fair value, then everything needs to cut in half... and maybe over shoot to $50b, that would be a value pocket that may worth investing.

think about it..AMZN currently at $870b.... would you rather own all the coins in the world, or 1/4 of AMZN? to me it's a no brainer, 1/4 of AMZN worths so much more than all these strings of numbers created out of thin air.
More...

I think both you and Overnight are saying the same thing which is Scenario A, crypto will crash and crypto investors are idiots, that's a fair opinion and you may be proven to be correct. We shall see. However, if we get another crypto bull market, just know that it's not so easy to hodl which is the point of the tweet.

It takes a lot of conviction to hodl through the ups and downs and fud.
 
johnarb said:
Read a tweet yesterday that I thought was great, but only a crypto hodler would understand or relate to.

I've been through the bear market (crypto winter) of 2014 - 2016, and have read stories of the earlier booms and busts of bitcoin - hundreds of percent spikes and 90%+ crashes.

In the last 6 months, my crypto portfolio has experienced volatility extremes of -55% and +118% without me doing anything but hodling (no trading).

So, let's say,

1. Bull market in crypto in the next 2 years?
a. No - crypto investors lose everything and are idiots?
b. Yes - Will the crypto investors be labeled as lucky again?
c. Price stays flat - crypto investors are ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1196481597446320130
More...

I think we'll see some kind of a rally in 2 years. The markets have been making drastic moves lately which could trigger either bull run or a death drop. So make sure you plan for either direction.
 
johnarb said:
I think both you and Overnight are saying the same thing which is Scenario A, crypto will crash and crypto investors are idiots, that's a fair opinion and you may be proven to be correct. We shall see. However, if we get another crypto bull market, just know that it's not so easy to hodl which is the point of the tweet.

It takes a lot of conviction to hodl through the ups and downs and fud.
More...
I can't see the point of being a hodler, may as well go to Disneyland.
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I don't get what the allure of these coins are. How much can you leverage the thing?

Who gives a shit about absolute returns when the framework for levering and hedging the thing doesn't even exist?

Add in the counter-party risk and it just seems like total noob shit to me.

You can trade US treasuries at something like 40 to 1. You can spread the risk off, and there is an abundance of available hedges, fundamental, risk ratio'd, and correlation based.

The "once in a lifetime story" is done with. Take the profits and learn how to trade a legitimate market.

Just my .02
 
Last edited:
Real Money said:
I don't get what the allure of these coins are. How much can you leverage the thing?

Who gives a shit about absolute returns when the framework for levering and hedging the thing doesn't even exist.

Add in the counter-party risk and it just seems like total noob shit to me.

You can trade US treasuries at something like 40 to 1. You can spread the risk off, and there is an abundance of available hedges, fundamental, risk ratio'd, and correlation based.

The "once in a lifetime story" is done with. Take the profits and learn how to trade a legitimate market.

Just my .02
More...

Yeah but man crypto is like legendary its the future bro, totally lit.

118% volatility shit I drink that with my double soy latte every morning. What are you afraid of a little volatility? Crypto is the future bro. Hold on I can't hear you with my airpods in. I got "I get the bag" on repeat bro because that's all I do every day.

I know this guy who made, like, 14 million dollars because he's bought it at $2. He hasn't gotten his money out yet though because binance is owned by the chinese but bro 14 million dollars.

Market makers and the SEC are so authoritarian bro. You just have to believe crypto is the future. No regulation is the anarcho capitalist dream bro and my boy made 14 million dollar. Why are you hating bro? I'm about to make a new coin myself and ICO you don't even know. It's called spacecoin bro because this shit is going to the moon. Are you even an entrepreneur?


sarcasm
 
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