Contemplation of a bored mind...

[gaussian]

I would say that you read about that fake volume thingy in a 6 month old gazette at your hairdressers and have discussed that with your one friend who HODLs 2 BTC from 4k back in 2017.

The smartest minds are trading this stuff. Jump trading is into it very big, DRW, B2C2, Alameda Research, Pantera, Galaxy Digital, basically the top of quant/HFT and macro trading.

You haven't even figured out BTC's real world use case and call those guys armchair economists? Cmon, dude, really?....why should I even bother discussing with you?

Actually, I read a paper that analyzed bitcoin liquidity since inception, which was recommended to me by a bitcoin trader demonstrating that the market is basically a giant bubble. But yeah, probably at my hairdressers. How very zoomer of you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_bitcoin

American investor Warren Buffett warned investors about bitcoin in 2014, "Stay away from it. It's a mirage, basically."[59] He repeated the warning in 2018 calling bitcoin "probably rat poison squared". He believes that bitcoin is a non-productive asset. "When you're buying nonproductive assets, all you're counting on is the next person is going to pay you more because they're even more excited about another next person coming along."[82]

Buffett's close associate Charlie Munger is even more direct in his disdain. Trading cryptocurrencies is "just dementia" according to Munger. Bitcoin is "worthless" and a "turd".[83]

John Bogle, the founder of The Vanguard Group, is also very direct "Avoid bitcoin like the plague. Did I make myself clear? .... There is nothing to support bitcoin except the hope that you will sell it to someone for more than you paid for it."[84]

George Soros, answering an audience question after a speech in Davos, Switzerland in 2018, said that cryptocurrencies are not a store of value but are an economic bubble. Nevertheless, they may not crash due to the rising influence of dictators trying to "build a nest egg abroad".[60]

James Chanos, known as the "dean of the short sellers", believes that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are a mania and useful only for tax avoidance or otherwise hiding income from the government. Bitcoin "is simply a security speculation game masquerading as a technological breakthrough in monetary policy".[85]

Two lead software developers of bitcoin, Gavin Andresen[86] and Mike Hearn,[87] have warned that bubbles may occur.

On 13 September 2017, Jamie Dimon referred to bitcoin to as a "fraud",[88] comparing it to pyramid schemes, and stated that JPMorgan Chase would fire employees trading while the company released a report critical of the cryptocurrency.[89] However, in a January 2018 interview Jamie Dimon voiced regrets about his earlier bitcoin remarks, and noted "The blockchain is real, You can have cryptodollars in yen and stuff like that. ICOs ... you got to look at everyone individually."[90][91]

Alibaba chairman Jack Ma stated in 2018, "There is no bubble for blockchain, but there's a bitcoin bubble"[61] and "[blockchain] technology itself isn’t the bubble, but bitcoin likely is".[92]

Financial journalists and analysts, economists, and investors have attempted to predict the possible future value of bitcoin. In April 2013, economist John Quiggin stated, "bitcoins will attain their true value of zero sooner or later, but it is impossible to say when".[64] A similar forecast was made in November 2014 by economist Kevin Dowd.[102]

In December 2013, finance professor Mark T. Williams forecast that bitcoin would trade for less than $10 by mid-year 2014.[103] In the indicated period bitcoin has exchanged as low as $344 (April 2014) and during July 2014 the bitcoin low was $609.[35][36][104] In December 2014, Williams said, "The probability of success is low, but if it does hit, the reward will be very large."[105]

In November 2014, David Yermack, Professor of Finance at New York University Stern School of Business, forecast that in November 2015 bitcoin may be all but worthless.[106] In the indicated period bitcoin has exchanged as low as $176.50 (January 2015) and during November 2015 the bitcoin low was $309.90.[35]

In May 2013, Bank of America FX and Rate Strategist David Woo forecast a maximum fair value per bitcoin of $1,300.[107] Bitcoin investor Cameron Winklevoss stated in December 2013 that the "small bull case scenario for bitcoin is... 40,000 USD a coin".[108]

Most bitcoin transactions take place on a cryptocurrency exchange, rather than being used in transactions with merchants.[133] Delays processing payments through the blockchain of about ten minutes make bitcoin use very difficult in a retail setting. Prices are not usually quoted in units of bitcoin and many trades involve one, or sometimes two, conversions into conventional currencies.[134] Merchants that do accept bitcoin payments may use payment service providers to perform the conversions.[135]

Now of course you'll tell me that successful investors, people who understand currencies at a deep level like Soros, and economists are all wrong because they're too old. You should read The Alchemy of Finance sometime.

No one who matters agrees with you. Sorry. I'd love to see your economic models of it though - provided you're not just shilling for crypto like literally everyone else involved in the scheme.

 

[MrMuppet]

Actually, I read a paper that analyzed bitcoin liquidity since inception, which was recommended to me by a bitcoin trader demonstrating that the market is basically a giant bubble. But yeah, probably at my hairdressers. How very zoomer of you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_bitcoin







Now of course you'll tell me that successful investors, people who understand currencies at a deep level like Soros, and economists are all wrong because they're too old. You should read The Alchemy of Finance sometime.

But yeah, keep believing it'll work. It's bordering on faith healing level delusion. Do I have to cite the repeated failure of cryptocurrency "ATMs"?



No one who matters agrees with you. Sorry. All you're doing is buying in hoping to sell it to some sucker at a higher price before the floor drops out and it finds its intrinsic value of exactly $0.

You lack the basic foundation of knowledge that allows you to discuss this market in a differentiated manner. All you have to offer is hearsay and truisms which are completly meaningless since you've never even had a deeper look into it.
I gain nothing from talking to you aside from winning a pissing contest.
So I just block you Have fun at your next technical analysis webinar :*

 

[MrMuppet]

@johnarb: you must understand that there is much more to crypto than just buying and hoping for the best.
If you put some research into it, you will find that you can basically rebuild an entire financial system with synthetic products that allows you to do stuff you'd usually need very expensive licensing, auditing and a huge chunk of working capital for.

So the real edge in crypto is not the guesswork weither a coin survives or not but the fact that you can for example establish a margin lending business that offers double digit returns and all you need is some basic programming and 5$

Wanna trade a 3m floating receiver swap? You just build it yourself out of derivatives, no need for an ISDA or 7 digit collateral.
Synthetic CD's yield 0.8% per month which is about 10% annualized.

No brokers, no cost for market data. Sure infrastructure is shit, but it's shit for everyone. Enough liquidity to slap meaningfull size on if you know where you have to look for it and how to manage risk.
If you are not a complete idiot, this market is an eldorado.

 

[johnarb]

@johnarb: you must understand that there is much more to crypto than just buying and hoping for the best.
If you put some research into it, you will find that you can basically rebuild an entire financial system with synthetic products that allows you to do stuff you'd usually need very expensive licensing, auditing and a huge chunk of working capital for.

So the real edge in crypto is not the guesswork weither a coin survives or not but the fact that you can for example establish a margin lending business that offers double digit returns and all you need is some basic programming and 5$

Wanna trade a 3m floating receiver swap? You just build it yourself out of derivatives, no need for an ISDA or 7 digit collateral.
Synthetic CD's yield 0.8% per month which is about 10% annualized.

No brokers, no cost for market data. Sure infrastructure is shit, but it's shit for everyone. Enough liquidity to slap meaningfull size on if you know where you have to look for it and how to manage risk.
If you are not a complete idiot, this market is an eldorado.

I agree with you for the most part, although there's a lot of scams in the cryptoverse so I'd caution not to listen to the pie-in-the-sky promises of some of these projects. Many things that are being promised don't need a blockchain or a decentralized network, imho.

I've been invested in cryptos since 2013 and have cashed out many, many times my original investment, and all I have invested now are house-money (profits), but it is quite a sizable amount (for me, maybe not for many here on Elitetrader where most people are decamillionaires, centimillionaires, or billionaires) over 6 figures $ amount.

In May, i mentioned that I consolidated my crypto portfolio to one digital asset project, it's a blockchain 3.0 (smart contracts, and Proof of Stake from inception) and it's a leader in the STO market, with billions of $ worth of real world real estate properties about to be issued plus financial assets, one should be issued before year-end. These are all mumbo-jumbo terms, but the bottom line is that this one digital-asset project has been paying for our grocery bills ($6-700) every month for 6 months, all on passive-income returns (Proof of Stake). No trading involved.

While Gaussian worships and adores the idols of his financial system and will only invest/trade if they approve, he gets absolutely nothing from doing so or from them.

 

[MrMuppet]

well, to be honest I have no idea about those crypto projects and alts. I trade the BTC and ETH markets against a portfolio of traditional assets. For the most part I make markets and sometimes I have a directional view on my inventory.

You invest in a company and I want to be very precise with that. It actually doesn't matter weither your investment is part of the blockchain universe or not, because all that matters is a sound business case.

There are as many scams in non crypto businesses as there are in the crypto world. This is probably the reason why everyone is bashing crypto because they connect this market to the ponzi schemes that appeared in the press.

Nobody cared about the 1.2B$ real estate ponzi by Woodbrigde in 2017 because it's just business as usual. Bitconnect became a meme, cause crypto.

As the sheep they are people do not look further and this is how they form their opinion.

But again, I give zero fucks about the companies behind those new projects. In fact I do the most volume in BTC which is not controlled by any company. I love the freedom of trading possibilities and the insane amount of free alpha.

 

[johnarb]

well, to be honest I have no idea about those crypto projects and alts. I trade the BTC and ETH markets against a portfolio of traditional assets. For the most part I make markets and sometimes I have a directional view on my inventory.

You invest in a company and I want to be very precise with that. It actually doesn't matter weither your investment is part of the blockchain universe or not, because all that matters is a sound business case.

There are as many scams in non crypto businesses as there are in the crypto world. This is probably the reason why everyone is bashing crypto because they connect this market to the ponzi schemes that appeared in the press.

Nobody cared about the 1.2B$ real estate ponzi by Woodbrigde in 2017 because it's just business as usual. Bitconnect became a meme, cause crypto.

As the sheep they are people do not look further and this is how they form their opinion.

But again, I give zero fucks about the companies behind those new projects. In fact I do the most volume in BTC which is not controlled by any company. I love the freedom of trading possibilities and the insane amount of free alpha.

Good stuff and we agree on many things. I always recommend bitcoin/btc, as that's the one that's the safest of all crypto projects.

There are no companies with a true decentralized cyptocurrency project. It's an open-source effort. There are communities that are heavily involved, but no one is in-charge. Anyone can make a copy and start a project (i.e. forks).

That's the reason no one can stop bitcoin (easily) but Libra cannot get started. There's no one to contact and issue a cease and desist on a decentralized cryptocurrency project, but there's Mark Z. that can be threatened to do whatever "they" think needs to be done.

 

[gaussian]

You lack the basic foundation of knowledge that allows you to discuss this market in a differentiated manner.

Faith healers, miracle workers, psychics, and herbalife tell me the same thing.

Weird...

If you wanted to debate the merits of the technology, blockchain, I'm more than happy to. I've worked with the technology for a while and understand it well enough.

Wanna trade a 3m floating receiver swap? You just build it yourself out of derivatives, no need for an ISDA or 7 digit collateral.

Oh you sweet summer child. Go ahead and tell who is going to trade a 3mm swap unsecured with some nobody on the internet, because funny enough I also have a 3mm bridge to sell them.