Conservative Options Trades

LL:

http://wtvr.com/2015/03/02/report-h...found-in-va-flooring-from-lumber-liquidators/

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/lumber-liquidators-linked-to-health-and-safety-violations/

http://www.forbes.com/sites/elaines...stions-about-lumber-liquidators-toxic-floors/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formaldehyde

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ll

Trade:
With LL at 38.83
Jan '16 55/60 bear call spread for a net credit of $75
Yield = 75/425 = 17.6% in 319 days or 20.2% annualized
Prob/Expectation....this stock is too volatile for prob and expectation to have any meaning.

Price.............Profit / Loss.............ROM %
30.00................75.00....................17.60%
40.00................75.00....................17.60%
50.00................75.00....................17.60%
55.00................75.00....................17.60%
55.75..................0.00......................0.00%
56.46...............(71.40)..................-14.28%
60.00.............(425.00)..................-85.00%
65.00.............(425.00)..................-85.00%
75.00.............(425.00)..................-85.00%
 
Last edited:
IEP:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanv...-2014/?utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/carl-icahn-got-whacked-oil-142531440.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=IEP Key Statistics

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.IEP.NAS?symbol=IEP&form=PRFIEQ

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...ns":{"^GSPC":{"color":"#cc0000","weight":1}}}

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=iep

Trade:
With IEP at 92.42
Sept 105/110 bear call spread for a net credit of $45
Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 195 days or 18.5% annualized
Prob = 79%
Expectation = .79(45) - .14(455) - .07(228) = 35.6 - 63.7 - 20.2 = -48.3

Price..........Profit / Loss.........ROM %
70.00............45.00..................9.90%
80.00............45.00..................9.90%
95.00............45.00..................9.90%
105.00..........45.00..................9.90%
105.45............0.00..................0.00%
109.95.......(450.10)..............-90.02%
110.00.......(455.00)..............-91.00%
120.00.......(455.00)..............-91.00%
135.00.......(455.00)..............-91.00%
 
Last edited:
WNR:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/western-refining-wnr-bull-day-065106646.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=WNR Key Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/western-refining-beats-4q-profit-174310767.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=WNR

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=wnr

Trade:
with WNR at 46.49
Sept 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $40
Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 194 days or 16.4% annualized
Prob = 85%
Expectation = .85(40) - .05(460) - .1(230) = 34 - 23.0 - 23.3 = -12.3

Price............Profit / Loss...........ROM %
20.00............(460.00)...................-92.00%
25.00............(460.00)...................-92.00%
30.00............(460.00)....................-92.00%
34.60.................0.00........................0.00%
35.00...............40.00........................8.70%
40.00...............40.00........................8.70%
45.00...............40.00........................8.70%
50.00...............40.00........................8.70%
55.00...............40.00........................8.70%
 
IWN:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=iwn

http://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/small-cap-value-equities/

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/rk?s=IWN Risk

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=IWN+Profile

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=IWN Holdings

Trade:
With IWN at 100.12
Sept 85/80 bull put spread for a net credit of $50
Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 163 days or 24.9% annualized
Prob = 91%
Expectation = .91(50) - .03(450) - .06(225) = 45.5 - 13.5 - 13.5 = 18.5

Price................Profit / Loss..........ROM %
60.00................(450.00)..............-90.00%
70.00................(450.00)..............-90.00%
80.00................(450.00)..............-90.00%
84.50.....................0.00.....................0.00%
85.00...................50.00...................11.10%
90.00...................50.00...................11.10%
100.00.................50.00...................11.10%
110.00.................50.00...................11.10%
125.00.................50.00...................11.10%
 
Last edited:
GILD:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/03/21/dividend-stocks-2-to-avoid-1-to-buy.aspx

http://www.investopedia.com/stock-a...s-worth-136-billion-gild.aspx?partner=YahooSA

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...in-biotech-margins/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.GILD.NAS?symbol=GILD&form=PRFIEQ

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gild

Trade:
With GILD at 102.29
Jan '16 65/60 bull put spread for $30
Yield = 30/470 = 6.4% in 299 days or 7.8% annualized
Prob = 98%
Expectation = .98(30) - .01(470) - .01(235) = 29.4 - 4.7 - 2.4 = 22.3

Price....................... Profit / Loss........... ROM %
45.00 .........................(470.00)................ -94.00%
60.00 .........................(470.00)................ -94.00%
60.90 .........................(379.70)................ -75.94%
64.70 ..............................0.00.................... 0.00%
65.00 ............................30.00.................... 6.00%
75.00 ............................30.00.................... 6.00%
95.00 ............................30.00.................... 6.00%
100.00 ..........................30.00.................... 6.00%
125.00 ..........................30.00.................... 6.00%
 
DRI:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/darden-restaurants-profit-tops-estimates-2015-03-20

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/olive-gardens-turnaround-well-under-way-2015-03-23

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/darden-dri-upgraded-strong-buy-154003313.html

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.DRI.NYS?symbol=DRI&form=PRFIEQ

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=dri

TRADE:
with DRI at 69.22
Jan '16 55/50 bull put spread for a net credit of $50
Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 297 days or 13.7% annualized
Prob = 88%
Expectation = .88(50) - .05(450) - .07(225) = 44 - 22.5 - 15.80 = 5.7

Price ....................Profit / Loss .............ROM %
37.50 ......................(450.00) .................-90.00%
46.91 ......................(450.00) .................-90.00%
50.00 ......................(450.00) ..................-90.00%
54.50 ...........................0.00 ......................0.00%
55.00 .........................50.00 .....................11.10%
56.81......................... 50.00 .....................11.10%
66.72 .........................50.00 .....................11.10%
76.62 .........................50.00 .....................11.10%
86.53 .........................50.00 .....................11.10%
 
Last edited:
SO:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/1309...ou-should-buy-now.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.SO.NYS?symbol=SO&form=PRFIEQ

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SO+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/southern-company-value-pick-income-150613130.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=so

Trade:
With So at 44.64
Jan '16 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $38
Yield = 38/462 = 8.2% in 287 days or 10.5% annualized
Prob = 94.5%
Expectation = .945(38) - .01(462) - .05(231) = 35.91 - 4.62 - 11.55 = 20

Price................... Profit / Loss.......... ROM %
22.50..................... (462.00).............. -92.40%
28.89..................... (462.00).............. -92.40%
30.00..................... (462.00).............. -92.40%
34.62......................... 0.00................... 0.00%
35.00....................... 38.00................... 8.20%
35.62....................... 38.00................... 8.20%
42.35....................... 38.00................... 8.20%
49.07....................... 38.00................... 8.20%
55.80....................... 38.00................... 8.20%
 
TDC:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/premise-health-selects-teradata-cloud-130000139.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/multi-state-provider-osf-healthcare-150000339.html

http://www.bidnessetc.com/39089-who...informatica-corporation-takeover-asks-stifel/

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TDC+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=TDC

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.TDC.NYS?symbol=TDC&form=PRFIEQ

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TDC+Interactive#

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TDC

Trade:
With TDC at 45.89
Jan 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $45
Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 280 days or 12.9% annualized
Prob = 78%
Expectation = .78(45) - .10(455) - .12(227) = 35.1 - 45.5 - 27.2 = -37.6

Price ............Profit / Loss........... ROM %
20.00.............. (455.00)................ -91.00%
25.00.............. (455.00)................ -91.00%
30.00.............. (455.00)................ -91.00%
34.55................... 0.00................... 0.00%
35.00.................. 45.00.................. 9.90%
40.00.................. 45.00.................. 9.90%
45.00.................. 45.00.................. 9.90%
50.00.................. 45.00.................. 9.90%
55.00.................. 45.00.................. 9.90%

Alternate trade:
Jan 35/32.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $35
Yield = 35/215 = 16.3% in 280 days or 21% annualized
Prob = 78%
Expectation = .78(35) - .10(215) - .12(107) = 27.3 - 21.5 - 12.8 = -7

Price ..............Profit / Loss............ ROM %
25.00............... (215.00)................ -86.00%
30.00............... (215.00)................ -86.00%
32.50............... (215.00)................ -86.00%
34.65.................... 0.00.................... 0.00%
35.00.................. 35.00................... 16.30%
40.00.................. 35.00................... 16.30%
45.00.................. 35.00................... 16.30%
50.00.................. 35.00................... 16.30%
55.00.................. 35.00................... 16.30%
 
Last edited:
BA:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-ba-receives-order-dozens-220210077.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-beats-airbus-first-quarter-103436523.html

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.BA.NYS?symbol=BA&form=PRFIEQ

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BA

Trade:
With BA at 153.24
Nov 125/120 bull put spread for a net credit of $51
Yield = 51/449 = 11.4% in 220 days or 18.8% annualized
Prob = 87%
Expectation = .87(51) - .09(449) - .04(224) = 44.37 - 40.41 - 8.96 = -5

Price................. Profit / Loss......... ROM %
90.00...................... (449.00)........... -89.80%
110.00.................... (449.00)........... -89.80%
120.00.................... (449.00)........... -89.80%
124.49......................... 0.00............... 0.00%
125.00....................... 51.00.............. 11.40%
130.00....................... 51.00.............. 11.40%
150.00....................... 51.00.............. 11.40%
160.00....................... 51.00.............. 11.40%
170.00....................... 51.00.............. 11.40%
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top