Conservative Options Trades

USO:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=uso

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/barrons-recap-why-invest-oil-191514182.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/number-us-oil-rigs-keeps-180200605.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-recent-decline-oil-rigs-214955374.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/think-u-oil-production-slowing-154547254.html

Trade:
with USO at 19.62
Jan '17 15/20 bull call spread for a net debit of $264

Price............Profit / Loss............ROI %
11.25..............(264.00)............-100.00%
13.89..............(264.00)............-100.00%
15.00..............(264.00)............-100.00%
16.67................(97.30)..............-36.86%
17.64...................0.00..................0.00%
19.44................180.40................68.33%
20.00................236.00................89.39%
22.22................236.00................89.39%
25.00................236.00................89.39%
 
http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB51367578116875004693704580451983146427978?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/define-depressed-153613584.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=DG+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=DG Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=dg
Trade:
with DG at 69.56
Jan '16 55/52.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $30
Yield = 30/220 = 13.6% in 331 days or 15% annualized
Prob = 76%
Expectation = .76(30) - .19(220) - .05(110) = 22.8 - 41.8 - 5.5 = -24.5

Price..........Profit / Loss...............ROM %
45.00............(220.00).................-88.00%
50.00............(220.00).................-88.00%
52.50............(220.00).................-88.00%
54.70.................0.00......................0.00%
55.00...............30.00.....................13.60%
60.00...............30.00.....................13.60%
65.00...............30.00.....................13.60%
70.00...............30.00.....................13.60%
75.00...............30.00.....................13.60%
 
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WMT:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wal-mart-wmt-beats-q4-144902258.html

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/wal-mart-beats-4q-profit-forecasts-29072988

http://fortune.com/2015/02/19/walmarts-holiday-results/?xid=yahoo_fortune

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wal-marts-ceo-just-made-145018105.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_McMillon

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=WMT Key Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=WMT Competitors

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=wmt

Trade:
With WMT at 83.51
Sept 92.5/97.5 Bear call spread for a net credit of $41
Yield = 41/459 = 8.9% in 210 days or 15.5% annualized
Prob = 77%
Expectation = .77(41) - .13(459) - .10(230) = 31.6 - 59.7 - 23 = -51


Price..............Profit / Loss...........ROM %
70.00................41.00....................8.90%
80.00................41.00....................8.90%
90.00................41.00....................8.90%
92.50................41.00....................8.90%
92.91..................0.00....................0.00%
97.50.............(459.00)...............-91.80%
100.00............(459.00)..............-91.80%
105.00............(459.00)..............-91.80%
115.00............(459.00)..............-91.80%
 
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CL:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/colgate-palmolive-beats-4q-profit-122147676.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/colgate-lifts-dividend-issues-share-184006855.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CL Key Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CL+Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cl

Trade:
With CL at 70.24
Jan '16 57.5/52.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $35
Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in 328 days or 8.4% annualized
Prob = 93%
Expectation = .93(35) - .02(465) - .05(233) = 32.6 - 9.3 - 11.6 = 11.7

Price...............Profit / Loss...........ROM %
40.00...............(465.00)..............-93.00%
45.00...............(465.00)..............-93.00%
52.50...............(465.00)..............-93.00%
57.15....................0.00..................0.00%
57.50..................35.00...................7.50%
60.00..................35.00...................7.50%
65.00..................35.00...................7.50%
70.00..................35.00...................7.50%
80.00..................35.00...................7.50%
 
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VDSI:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-impressive-cyber-security-stocks-014101282.html

http://news.investors.com/022015-74...-rising.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...-dougherty-defends/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VDSI Interactive#

Trade:
With VDSI at 26.16
Sept 15/12.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $38
Yield = 38/212 = 17.9% in 206 days or 32% annualized
stock price too erratic for probability and expectation calculations

Price................Profit / Loss.............ROM %
10.00..................(212.00).................-84.80%
12.50................(212.00)...................-84.80%
13.85................(76.80).....................-30.72%
14.62...................0.00.........................0.00%
15.00.................38.00........................15.20%
20.00.................38.00........................15.20%
22.50.................38.00........................15.20%
25.00.................38.00........................15.20%
30.00.................38.00........................15.20%

The trade is conservative but the stock is not
 
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CL:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/colgate-palmolive-beats-4q-profit-122147676.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/colgate-lifts-dividend-issues-share-184006855.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CL Key Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CL Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cl

Trade:
With CL at 70.24
Jan '16 57.5/52.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $35
Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in 328 days or 8.4% annualized
Prob = 93%
Expectation = .93(35) - .02(465) - .05(233) = 32.6 - 9.3 - 11.6 = 11.7

Price...............Profit / Loss...........ROM %
40.00...............(465.00)..............-93.00%
45.00...............(465.00)..............-93.00%
52.50...............(465.00)..............-93.00%
57.15....................0.00..................0.00%
57.50..................35.00...................7.50%
60.00..................35.00...................7.50%
65.00..................35.00...................7.50%
70.00..................35.00...................7.50%
80.00..................35.00...................7.50%
 
VDSI:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-impressive-cyber-security-stocks-014101282.html

http://news.investors.com/022015-74...-rising.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...-dougherty-defends/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VDSI Interactive#

Trade:
With VDSI at 26.16
Sept 15/12.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $38
Yield = 38/212 = 17.9% in 206 days or 32% annualized
stock price too erratic for probability and expectation calculations

Price................Profit / Loss.............ROM %
10.00..................(212.00).................-84.80%
12.50................(212.00)...................-84.80%
13.85................(76.80).....................-30.72%
14.62...................0.00.........................0.00%
15.00.................38.00........................15.20%
20.00.................38.00........................15.20%
22.50.................38.00........................15.20%
25.00.................38.00........................15.20%
30.00.................38.00........................15.20%

The trade is conservative but the stock is not
 
LOW:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lowes-low-q4-earnings-beat-130001932.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=LOW Key Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=LOW

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=LOW Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=low

Trade:
with LOW at 75.20
Oct 55/50 bull put spread for a net credit of $26
Yield = 26/474 = 5.6% in 233 days or 8.6% annualized
Prob = 92%
Expectation = .92(26) - .03(474) - .05(237) = 23.92 - 14.22 - 11.85 = -2.15

Price..............Profit / Loss...........ROM %
37.50...............(474.00)................-94.80%
45.00...............(474.00)................-94.80%
50.00...............(474.00)................-94.80%
54.74....................0.00....................0.00%
55.00..................26.00....................5.60%
60.00..................26.00....................5.60%
70.00..................26.00....................5.60%
80.00..................26.00....................5.60%
90.00..................26.00....................5.60%
 
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ALKS:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alkermes-falls-pipeline-news-q4-143202065.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=alks

Trade:
with ALKS at 70.32
Aug 85/90 bear call spread for a net credit of $95
Yield = 95/405 = 23% in 177 days or 48% annualized
Prob = 77%
Expectation = .77(95) - .18(405) - .05(203) = 73.15 - 72.9 - 10.15 = -10

Price...................Profit / Loss............ROM %
52.56....................95.00.......................23.00%
64.06....................95.00.......................23.00%
76.17....................95.00.......................23.00%
85.00....................95.00.......................23.00%
85.95......................0.00.........................0.00%
88.28..................(233.20)....................-46.64%
90.00..................(405.00)....................-81.00%
100.39................(405.00)....................-81.00%
112.50................(405.00)....................-81.00%
 
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