Conservative Options Trades

PG:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-g-pg-misses-earnings-131901308.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-g-fiscal-2q-earnings-131551889.html

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1302...hares-on-pullback.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PG Key Statistics

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=pg

Trade:
with PG at 86.25
July 95/100 bear call spread for a net credit of $35
Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in 171 days or 16% annualized
Prob = 83%
Expectation = .83(35) - .07(465) - .10(233) = 29.1 - 32.6 - 23.3 = -26.8

Price...........Profit/ Loss.........ROM %
80.00............35.00................7.50%
85.00............35.00................7.50%
90.00............35.00................7.50%
95.00............35.00................7.50%
95.35..............0.00................0.00%
100.00.........(465.00)...........-93.00%
110.00.........(465.00)...........-93.00%
115.00.........(465.00)............-93.00%
125.00..........(465.00)...........-93.00%


Alternate:
with PG at 86.25
July 75/70 bull put spread for a net credit of $30
Yield = 30/470 = 6.38% in 171 days or 13.6%
Prob = 91%
Expectation = .91(30) - .02(470) - .07(235) = 27.3 - 9.4 - 16.4 = 1.5

Price...............Profit / Loss...........ROM %
60.00.................(470.00).............-94.00%
65.00.................(470.00).............-94.00%
70.00.................(470.00).............-94.00%
74.26...................(43.70)..............-8.74%
74.70.....................0.00..................0.00%
75.00....................30.00..................6.38%
80.00....................30.00..................6.38%
90.00....................30.00..................6.38%
100.00..................30.00..................6.38%

Hmmm.....could do an Iron Condor
:)
 
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T

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/t-fourth-quarter-revenue-rises-212927994.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-costs-drag-t-4q-215445662.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/at...-after-earnings-beat-2015-01-27?siteid=yhoof2

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=T Key Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=T Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}

Trade:
With T at 32.81
July 28/25 bull put spread for a net credit of $28
Yield = 28/272 = 10.29% in 171 days or 22% annualized
Prob = 89%
Expectation = .89(28) - .02(272) - .09(136) = 24.92 - 5.44 - 12.24 = 7.5

Price............Profit / Loss.........ROM %
20.00.............(272.00)...............-90.67%
23.00.............(272.00)...............-90.67%
25.00.............(272.00)...............-90.67%
27.52..............(20.00)................-6.67%
27.72.................0.00....................0.00%
28.00................28.00..................10.29%
30.00................28.00..................10.29%
35.00................28.00..................10.29%
40.00................28.00..................10.29%
 
GE:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/24/technology/general-electric-q4-earnings.html?_r=0

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=GE&annual

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=GE

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GE Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear","comparisons":{"^GSPC":{"color":"#cc0000","weight":1}}}

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GE Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}

Trade:
with GE at 23.84
Jan '16 20/28 bull put spread for a net credit of $26.
Yield = 26/174 = 14.9% in 352 days or 15.5% annualized
Prob = 88%
Expectation = .88(26) - .03(174) - .09(87) = 22.9 - 5.2 - 7.8 = 10

Price..........Profit / Loss..........ROM %
13.50..........(174.00)...............-87.00%
16.63..........(174.00)...............-87.00%
18.00..........(174.00)...............-87.00%
19.74...............0.00...................0.00%
19.92.............18.10...................9.05%
20.00.............26.00..................14.90%
23.21.............26.00..................14.90%
26.51.............26.00..................14.90%
29.80.............26.00..................14.90%
 
CREE:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cree-inc-cree-shares-march-142602370.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cree-tops-street-2q-forecasts-212459065.html

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1301...ter-earnings-beat.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/summit-research-says-cree-nothing-140458203.html

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.CREE.NAS?symbol=CREE&form=PRFIEQ

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cree

Trade:
with CREE at 35.75
Sept 25/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $38
Yield = 38/462 = 8.22% in 231 days or 13% annualized
Prob = 86%
Expectation = .86(38) - .03(462) - .11(231) = 32.7 - 13.9 - 25.4 = -6.6

Price................Profit / Loss............ROM %
15.00................(462.00)..............-92.40%
20.00................(462.00)..............-92.40%
20.70................(392.20)..............-78.44%
24.62....................0.00...................0.00%
25.00...................38.00..................8.22%
26.70...................38.00..................8.22%
32.69...................38.00..................8.22%
38.69...................38.00..................8.22%
44.69...................38.00..................8.22%
 
RES:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-rpc-res-bear-060006065.html

http://news.investors.com/business/...s-as-oil-companies-like-cenovus-cut-costs.htm

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=RES Key Statistics

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=res

Trade:
with RES at 12.47
SEP 17.5/20 bear call spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/225 = 11.1% in 228 days or 17.8% annualized
Prob = 85.6%
Expectation = .86(25) - .075(225) - .065(113) = 21.5 - 16.9 - 7.3 = -3

Price............Profit / Loss..........ROM %
10.00..............25.00..................11.10%
12.50..............25.00..................11.10%
15.00..............25.00..................11.10%
17.50..............25.00..................11.10%
17.75................0.00....................0.00%
18.68.............(92.80)................-37.12%
20.00...........(225.00)................-90.00%
22.50...........(225.00)................-90.00%
25.00...........(225.00)................-90.00%
 
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TEVA:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/teva-beats-q4-earnings-penny-140102238.html

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.TEVA.NYS?symbol=TEVA&form=PRFIEQ

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=teva

Trade:
With TEVA at $58
#1
Sept 47.50/45 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/225 = 11.1% in 223 days or 18.2% annualized
Prob = 81%
Expectation = .81(25) - .13(225) - .04(113) = 20.25 - 29.25 - 4.25 = -13.25

#2
Sept 50/47.50 bull put spread for a net credit of $40
Yield = 40/210 = 19% in 223 days or 31% annualized
Prob = 74%
Expectation = .74(40) - .19(210) - .07(105) = 29.6 - 39.9 - 7.4 = -17.7

These two expectations are not significantly different from each other. The second trade has a higher payout but a lower probability and the two factors balance each other pretty closely.

From a purely statistical point of view, if I consistently trade either strategy the long term result will be pretty close to the same....zero.

:)
 
ABBV:

http://online.barrons.com/news/arti...4580437782429687348?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ABBV Key Statistics

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.ABBV.NYS?symbol=ABBV&form=PRFIEQ

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ABBV Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}

Trade:
with ABBV at 56.90
Jan '16 45/42.50 bull put spread for a net credit of $50
Yield = 50/200 = 25% in 341 days or 27% annualized
Prob = 78%
Expectation = .78(50) - .16(200) - .06(150) = 39 - 32 - 9 = -2

Price.....................Profit / Loss...............ROM %
31.88......................(200.00)...................-80.00%
39.41......................(200.00)...................-80.00%
42.50......................(200.00)...................-80.00%
44.50...........................0.00.......................0.00%
45.00.........................50.00......................25.00%
50.00.........................50.00......................25.00%
55.00.........................50.00......................25.00%
60.00.........................50.00......................25.00%
65.00.........................50.00......................25.00%
 
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FSLR:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/miguelh...olar-farm-to-power-all-california-operations/

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.FSLR.NAS?symbol=FSLR&form=PRFIEQ

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=FSLR

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=fslr

Trade:
with FSLR at 49.46
Jan '16 40/37.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $150

Price.............Profit / Loss...........ROM %
30.00.............(100.00)...............-40.00%
35.00.............(100.00)...............-40.00%
37.50.............(100.00)...............-40.00%
38.50..................0.00...................0.00%
40.00...............150.00.................60.00%
42.50...............150.00.................60.00%
45.00...............150.00.................60.00%
50.00...............150.00.................60.00%
 
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TSLA:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/teslas-4q-profit-falls-strong-223908770.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-posts-q4-miss-blames-235410086.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-s-wrong-with-tesla---maybe-nothing-145056303.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA

Trade:
With TSLA at 204.50
Jun 265/270 bear call spread for a net credit of $50
Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 124 days or 32.7% annualized
Prob = 80%
Expectation = .8(50) - .18(450) - .02(225) = 40 - 81 - 4.5 = -45.5

Price.............Profit / Loss.............ROM %
159.60...............50.00....................11.11%
193.74...............50.00....................11.11%
229.68...............50.00....................11.11%
265.00...............50.00....................11.11%
265.50.................0.00.....................0.00%
265.62..............(12.10)..................-2.42%
270.00..............(450.00)...............-90.00%
301.56..............(450.00)...............-90.00%
337.50..............(450.00)...............-90.00%
 
WMT:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2837796-wal-mart-set-for-a-promising-2015

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=WMT Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}

Trade:
with WMT at 85.81
Sept 70/67.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $21
Yield = 21/229 = 9.2% in 215 days or 15.6% annualized
Prob = 92%
Expectation = .92(21) - .05(229) - .03(115) = 19.3 - 11.4 - 3.4 = 4.5


Price..............Profit / Loss............ROM %
50.00...............(229.00)................-91.60%
60.00...............(229.00)................-91.60%
67.50...............(229.00)................-91.60%
69.79....................0.00....................0.00%
70.00...................21.00...................9.20%
75.00...................21.00...................9.20%
80.00...................21.00...................9.20%
85.00...................21.00...................9.20%
90.00...................21.00...................9.20%
 
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