Conservative Options Trades

F:
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...arish-as-you-think/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-posts-best-u-december-143000055.html
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=F

Trade:
With F at 14.76
Sept 12/10 bull put spread for a net credit of $23
Yield = 23/177 = 13% in 255 days or 19% annualized
Prob = 80%
Expectation = .8(23) - .05(177) - .15(89) = 18.4 - 8.85 -13.35 = -3.8

Price.............Profit / Loss............ROM %
7.50..............(177.00)................-88.50%
9.60..............(177.00)................-88.50%
10.00............(177.00)................-88.50%
11.77.................0.00....................0.00%
11.81.................4.10....................2.05%
12.00................23.00..................13.00%
14.02................23.00..................13.00%
16.23................23.00..................13.00%
18.44................23.00..................13.00%
 
AMGN:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/amgen-upgraded-strong-buy-portfolio-213009227.html

http://www.investopedia.com/article...lions-just-few-drugs.asp?rp=y&partner=YahooSA

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.AMGN.NAS?symbol=AMGN&form=PRFISB

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Trade:
with AMGN at 157.99
Jan '16 110/105 bull put spread for a net credit of $76
Yield = 76/424 = 17.9% in 374 days or 17.5% annualized
Prob = 86%
Expectation = .86(76) - .11(424) - .03(212) = 65.4 - 46.6 - 6.4 = 12.4

Price..............Profit / Loss...........ROM %
75.00...............(424.00).............-84.80%
100.00.............(424.00).............-84.80%
105.00.............(424.00).............-84.80%
109.24..................0.00.................0.00%
110.00................76.00................17.90%
125.53................76.00................17.90%
150.00................76.00................17.90%
175.00................76.00................17.90%
200.00................76.00................17.90%
 
TASR:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-day-taser-tasr-bull-060006642.html

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.TASR.NAS?symbol=TASR&form=PRFISB

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=TASR+Headlines

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tasr

Trade:

Jan '16 10/5 bull put spread for a net credit of $45
Yield = 45/455 = 10% in 372 days or 9.7% annualized
Prob = 91%
Expectation = .91(45) - .01(455) - .08(228) = 40.95 - 4.55 - 18.24 = 18.16

Price...............Profit / Loss...........ROM %
3.75.................(455.00).................-91.00%
5.00.................(455.00).................-91.00%
9.28...................(27.00)...................-5.40%
9.55.......................0.00....................0.00%
10.00....................45.00....................9.70%
15.10....................45.00....................9.70%
20.92....................45.00....................9.70%
26.74....................45.00....................9.70%
32.56....................45.00....................9.70%
 
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USO:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=uso

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/number-us-oil-rigs-operation-184616613.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-...t-money-into-funds-in-4-years.html?cmpid=yhoo

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29643612

http://constantvoyagermacro.tumblr.com/post/107404924673/why-the-oil-selloff-is-inducing-paranoia

Trade
With USO at 18.28
Jan '16 16/20 bull call spread for a net debit of $210

Price................Profit / Loss............ROI %
12.00................(210.00)..............-100.00%
14.50................(210.00)..............-100.00%
16.00................(210.00)..............-100.00%
17.12..................(97.90)................-46.62%
18.10.....................0.00....................0.00%
19.75..................164.70..................78.43%
20.00..................190.00..................90.48%
22.50..................190.00..................90.48%
25.00..................190.00..................90.48%
 
IPAR:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-inter-parfums-ipar-060006014.html

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.IPAR.NAS?symbol=IPAR&form=PRFISB

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPAR

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=IPAR Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}

Trade:
with IPAR at 25.67
Aug 30/35 bear call spread for a net credit of $45
Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 219 days or 16.5% annualized
Prob = 75%
Expectation = .75(45) - .12(455) - .13(227) = 33.75 - 54.6 - 29.51= -50.36

Price............Profit / Loss..........ROM %
20.00...............45.00...................9.90%
25.00...............45.00...................9.90%
28.89...............45.00...................9.90%
30.00...............45.00...................9.90%
30.45.................0.00...................0.00%
33.85............(339.60)...............-67.92%
35.00............(455.00)...............-91.00%
38.80............(455.00)...............-91.00%
43.75............(455.00)...............-91.00%
 
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RIO

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-rio-tinto-rio-060006532.html

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.RIO.NYS?symbol=RIO&form=PRFISB

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=rio

Trade:
with RIO at 43.1
Jan '16 50/52.5 bear call spread for a net credit of $50
Yield = 50/200 = 25% in 363 days or 25.1% annualized
Prob = 71%
Expectation = .71(50) - .24(200) - .05(100) = 35.5 - 48 - 5 = -17.5

Price.................Profit / Loss................ROM %
30.00....................50.00.......................20.00%
40.00....................50.00.......................20.00%
45.44....................50.00.......................20.00%
50.00....................50.00.......................20.00%
50.50......................0.00.........................0.00%
52.17.................(167.00).....................-66.80%
52.50.................(200.00).....................-80.00%
60.00.................(200.00).....................-80.00%
65.00..................(200.00)....................-80.00%
 
danshirley said:
Note:neither this nor any posting on this thread is meant as a recommendation to make a trade. It is simply my exploration of possibilities for my own use.

GOOG:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GOOG&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=


Sell the GOOG Jan 320 put and buy the GOOG Jan 310 put for a net credit of $61
Yield = 61/939 = 6.5% in 151 days or 15.7% annualized
(Probabilities from OptionsXpress)
Prob = 93%
Expectation = .93(61) - .05(939) - .02(469) = 56.7 - 47 - 9.4 = .03

That spread is being offered at $50 as of closing today which would have a negative expectation. We need to get at least $61 for that spread for the expectation to be barely positive.

Probably not worth the effort.
More...

What is the source of these figures?

Expectation = .93(61) - .05(939) - .02(469) = 56.7 - 47 - 9.4 = .03

I assume the the first is the probability times the spread price. What are the other two?
 
IBM:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ibm-t...revenue-continues-sag-214654905--finance.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ibm-fourth-quarter-profit-beats-212334923.html

http://www.bizjournals.com/triangle...nings-bill-kreher-edward-jones.html?ana=yahoo

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.IBM.NYS?symbol=IBM&form=PRFIHQ

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=IBM Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}

Trade:
With IBM at 156.95

Jan '16 200/205 bear call spread for a net credit of $40
Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 360 days or 8.8% annualized
Prob = 85%
Expectation = .85(40) - .125(460) - .02(230) = 34 - 57.5 - 4.6 = -28.1

Price..................Profit / Loss................ROM %
117.71...................40.00........................8.70%
144.30...................40.00........................8.70%
172.29...................40.00........................8.70%
200.00...................40.00........................8.70%
200.28...................12.50........................2.50%
200.40.....................0.00........................0.00%
205.00................(460.00)....................-92.00%
228.26................(460.00)....................-92.00%
256.25................(460.00)....................-92.00%

not a very good trade but the best I can come up with.
 
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T:
(a retirement money trade)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=T Key Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=T Interactive#{"range":"10y","scale":"linear"}

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=T

Trade:
with T at 33.95
Jan '16 25/23 bull put spread for a net credit of $15
Yield = 15/185 = 8.1% in 360 days or 8.2% annualized
Prob = 95%
Expectation = .95(15) - .025(185) - .025(93) = 14.25 - 4.6 - 2.3 = 7.35
Price......................Profit / Loss..............ROM %
17.25......................(185.00)...................-92.50%
22.08......................(185.00)...................-92.50%
23.00......................(185.00)...................-92.50%
24.85...........................0.00.......................0.00%
25.00.........................15.00.......................8.10%
27.17.........................15.00.......................8.10%
32.26.........................15.00.......................8.10%
37.35.........................15.00.......................8.10%
42.44.........................15.00.......................8.10%
 
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