Conservative Options Trades

UNG:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/california-heat-provides-glimpse-natgas-121544528.html

http://www.etftrends.com/2014/05/natural-gas-etfs-find-support-as-eia-raises-forecast/

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/em...ices-unlikely-to-retreat-this-year-2014-05-14

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/t-deploys-8-000th-cng-143000015.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UNG&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With UNG at 24.28
Oct 20/17 bull put spread for a net credit of $30
Yield = 30/270 = 11.1% in 156 days or 26% annualized
Prob = 83.5%
Expectation = .84(30) - .03(270) - .13(135) = 25.2 - 8.1 - 17.5 = 0


Price.....................Profit / Loss...............ROM %
12.00...................... (270.00)................. -90.00%
16.00...................... (270.00)................. -90.00%
17.00...................... (270.00)................. -90.00%
19.68............................ (1.70).................... -0.57%
19.70.............................. 0.00........................ 0.00%
20.00............................ 30.00..................... 11.11%
23.24............................ 30.00..................... 11.11%
26.00............................ 30.00..................... 11.11%
30.00............................ 30.00..................... 11.11%

BTW:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/duke-energy-add-nat-gas-202010913.html

(has nothing to do with this trade)
 
HD:

http://news.investors.com/052014-70...timates.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/even-home-depot-elicits-ouch-225300665.html

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...depot-may-sales-rise-but/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_stw

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HD

Trade:
With HD at 77.96
Aug 82.5/85 bear call spread for a net credit of $32
Yield = 32/218 = 14.6% in 87 days or 61.6% annualized


Price....................Profit / Loss................ROM %
58.47...................... 32.00........................ 14.60%
67.64...................... 32.00........................ 14.60%
77.29...................... 32.00........................ 14.60%
82.50...................... 32.00........................ 14.60%
82.82......................... 0.00........................... 0.00%
85.00.................. (218.00).................... -87.20%
86.94.................. (218.00).................... -87.20%
96.60.................. (218.00).................... -87.20%
106.25............... (218.00).................... -87.20%
 
Oldnemesis .......... What is the P/L of all these trades? You have almost 3 years of data and it would be nice to see the results.
 
GST:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/earnings-estimates-moving-higher-gastar-111521127.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gastar-exploration-gst-focus-stock-110712716.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gst

Trade:
With GST at 7.39
June 5/7.5 bull call spread for a net debit of $190


Price......................Profit / Loss....................ROI %
3.75......................... (190.00)................... -100.00%
4.83......................... (190.00)................... -100.00%
5.00......................... (190.00)................... -100.00%
5.97......................... (93.40)......................... -49.16%
6.90.............................. 0.00............................... 0.00%
7.10........................... 20.20............................ 10.63%
7.39.............................48.60............................25.57%
7.50........................... 60.00............................ 31.58%
8.24........................... 60.00............................ 31.58%
9.38........................... 60.00............................ 31.58%

short term hit and run from Larry McMillan and Zacks.
 
BIIB:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=BIIB+Profile

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BIIB+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=BIIB

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...hrough-drugs-yield-1-instant-blockbuster.aspx

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chmp-adopts-positive-opinion-plegridy-115900583.html

http://www.theflyonthewall.com/perm...ise--on-robust-drug-pipeline-Barrons-contends

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BIIB&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With BIIB at 299.71
Jan '15 200/295 bull put spread for a net credit of $36
Yield = 36/464 = 7.8% in 235 days or 12.1% annualized
Prob = 96%
Expectation = .96(36) - .03(464) - .01(232) = 34.56 - 13.92 - 2.32 = 18.32


Price........................Profit / Loss..................ROM %
150.00...................... (464.00).................... -92.80%
190.00...................... (464.00).................... -92.80%
195.00...................... (464.00).................... -92.80%
199.64.............................. 0.00.......................... 0.00%
200.00........................... 36.00.......................... 7.80%
225.00........................... 36.00......................... 7.80%
250.00........................... 36.00......................... 7.80%
275.00........................... 36.00......................... 7.80%
299.71............................36.00..........................7.80%
300.00........................... 36.00......................... 7.80%
 
Maya Angelou died today at age 86.

The caged bird sings
with fearful trill
of the things unknown
but longed for still
and his tune is heard
on the distant hill
for the caged bird
sings of freedom
http://www.poemhunter.com/poem/i-know-why-the-caged-bird-sings/

I am white and born in the North, Maya Angelou was black and born in the south.

Yet I remember the Saturday afternoon I first read "I Know Why The Caged Bird Sings" and how it brought a light and a depth to me that I had never known before.

http://vimeo.com/5453316

With so many of our voices being silenced and so few replacements on the horizon I wonder how we will survive.
 
OREX:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/224...pproved-soon-and-will-lead-market-here-is-why

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=OREX&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
with OREX at 6.26
June 7/6 strangle for a net debit of $135


Price........................Profit / Loss.........................ROI %
3.50...........................115.00..................................85.00%
4.00..............................63.00..................................47.00%
4.50.............................. 15.00............................... 11.11%
4.65................................. 0.00.................................. 0.00%
5.00............................. (36.50)........................... -49.33%
6.00............................. (135.00)..................... -100.00%
6.17............................. (135.00)..................... -100.00%
7.00............................. (135.00)..................... -100.00%
7.03............................. (131.70)........................ -97.56%
7.89................................ (45.90)........................ -34.00%
8.35..................................... 0.00............................... 0.00%
8.75.................................. 40.00............................ 29.63%
9.00..................................65.00..............................48,00%
 
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