Conservative Options Trades

ALKS:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ahead-bell-alkermes-shares-jump-132421382.html

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blo...-why-did-the-fda-approve-a-new-pain-drug.html

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/20...-friend-foe/uPdrdnS8RD2LZM4Bp3aUbJ/story.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/positive-trial-data-lifts-alkermes-145005867.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ALKS+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ALKS&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=ALKS&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1


Trade:
With ALKS at 44.65
Nov 30/25 bull put spread for a net credit of $50
Yield = 50/450 = 11.11% in 210 days or 19.3% annualized
Prob = 87%
Expectation = .87(50) - .04(450) - .09(225) = 43.5 - 18 - 20.25 = 5.25

locations_waltham.png


ALKS is an Irish company with US headquarters in Waltham MA

It specializes in drug treatment of psychiatric disorders like Schizophrenia.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCUmINGae44
 
glanced thru this title.. isnt Conservative and Option in the same sentence an oxymoron.
lol. .arent. .. when I think of options. its aggressive. baby.. !
 
 
SO:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/southern-company-likely-beat-q1-184005338.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SO+Key+Statistics
http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=SO
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=so
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SO&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With So at 46.52
Nov 42/39 bull put spread for a net credit of $43
Yield = 43/257 = 16.7% in 207 days or 29.5% annualized
Prob = 85%
Expectation = .85(43) - .04(257) - .11(129) = 36.6 - 10.3 - 14.2 = 12.1
 
ESRX:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/express-scripts-misses-earnings-guides-145007878.html

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...ifecta-of-bad-news/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/express-scripts-says-significance-subpoenas-171023860.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ESRX

Trade:
With ESRX at 66.58
Jan '15 77.5/80...52.5/50 Iron Condor for a net credit of $60


Price.......................Profit / Loss.................ROM %
37.50...................... (190.00).................... -76.00%
49.49...................... (190.00).................... -76.00%
50.00...................... (190.00)..................... -76.00%
51.90.............................. 0.00........................... 0.00%
52.50............................ 60.00....................... 24.00%
62.12............................ 60.00....................... 24.00%
74.75............................ 60.00....................... 24.00%
77.50............................ 60.00....................... 24.00%
78.10.............................. 0.00........................... 0.00%
80.00....................... (190.00)..................... -76.00%
100.00.................... (190.00)..................... -76.00%
 
TWI:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-titan-international-twi-050023009.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/titan-international-inc-sales-drop-110000284.html

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1268...-cat-bounce-stock.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TWI+Key+Statistics

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=twi

Trade:
With TWI at 17.51
Oct 20/22.5 bear call spread for a net credit of $30
Yield = 30/220 = 13.6% in 169 days or 29.4% annualized
Prob = 75%
Expectation = .75(30) - .128(220) -.125(1 10) = 22.5 - 28.16 - 13.75 = -19


Price......................Profit / Loss
13.00.......................... 30.00
16.00.......................... 30.00
19.00.......................... 30.00
20.00.......................... 30.00
20.30............................. 0.00
22.07...................... (176.70)
22.50...................... (220.00)
25.00...................... (220.00)
30.00...................... (220.00)
 
Hey OldNemesis,

I know you're not here to provide advice or any thing, but I'm just curious with your low risk long expiration trades, what is your return on your portfolio for the year?
 
Crayon:
The question is a reasonable one but unfortunately I don't have a reasonable answer.

I target the trades I post here to around 15% annualized.

BUT:

The account I use to execute these trades is largely devoted to income oriented holdings like ACG (my biggest single holding in that account). Thus account performance largely reflects income received and changes in principle for income oriented holdings.

With holdings like ACG suffering from anticipation of rises in interest rates due to 'tapering' I have been losing principle because of this.

e.g.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ACG+Basic+Chart

In addition I do not actually take all the trades I post here. I have said often that these postings are 'trade discovery' not portfolio management.

As the market has become 'overbought' and 'expensive' (both terms a matter of opinion) I have been less and less likely to take bullish trades like bull put spreads and more likely to take bearish trades like bear call spreads... although I try to engineer these trades to survive market ups and downs.

As of today, considering my current holdings:

The sum of all my bullish and bearish spreads covers my principle loss in income instruments and a little bit more. Thus it's as if I am getting my dividends income without loss of principle. This could change quickly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jj4nJ1YEAp4

"The best you can hope for is to die in your sleep"
 
PFE:

PFE has been trying to buy AZN:

http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-inte...fer-a-primer-on-the-deal-so-far/?mod=yahoo_hs

So far this has been having no discernible effect on PFE's stock price:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PFE&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

while it has spiked AZN's chart:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AZN&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

I've been holding a 25/20 bull put spread on PFE. After reviewing the situation I have submitted a trade to exit my PFE position at breakeven.

I don't like the sound of the whole thing. (note PFE's intent to move it's headquarters to UK for tax purposes, and the UK gov's dislike for the deal) Also I don't like to be liable in any deal which involves so much stock. The final outcome is too hard to predict.

To me this is primarily an attempt on Pfizer's part to flee the US for a more tax friendly UK... and the UK isn't buying it.

I will avoid PFE and AZN until this situation is history.
 
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