Conservative Options Trades

GPS:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gap-continues-dismal-comps-run-205006107.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GPS+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=gps

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gps

Trade:
with GPS at 38.40
Jan '15 45/47 bear call spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/175 = 14.3 % in 279 days or 18.7% annualized
Prob = 77%


Price....................................Profit / Loss................................ROI %
30.00.......................................... 25.00................................... 14.30%
35.00.......................................... 25.00.................................... 14.30%
40.00.......................................... 25.00.................................... 14.30%
45.00.......................................... 25.00.................................... 14.30%
45.25............................................. 0.00....................................... 0.00%
46.65....................................... (139.90)................................ -69.95%
47.00....................................... (175.00)................................ -87.50%
50.00....................................... (175.00)................................ -87.50%
55.00....................................... (175.00)................................ -87.50%
 
WFC:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wells-fargo-profit-rises-14-121159978.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wells-fargo-continues-show-earnings-195507212.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/we...-among-biggest-banks-2014-04-11?siteid=yhoof2

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=WFC+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=WFC

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wells_Fargo

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WFC&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=wfc

Trade:
With WFC at 48.08
Jan '15 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/475 = 5.26% in 279 days or 6.9% annualized
Prob = 97%


Price.................................Profit / Loss..........................ROI %
22.50.................................... (475.00)........................ -95.00%
25.00.................................... (475.00)........................ -95.00%
30.00.................................... (475.00)........................ -95.00%
34.75............................................ 0.00.............................. 0.00%
35.00.......................................... 25.00............................. 6.90%
40.00.......................................... 25.00............................. 6.90%
45.00.......................................... 25.00............................. 6.90%
55.00.......................................... 25.00............................. 6.90%
60.00.......................................... 25.00............................. 6.90%

170px-Wellsfargohq.jpg



It's Palm Sunday today:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2DdFkZui1U
 
AMRS:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/makes-amyris-amrs-strong-sell-110906814.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AMRS+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=amrs

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AMRS+Interactive#symbol=AMRS;range=

Trade:
with AMRS at 3.49
Sept 5/2.5 bear put spread for a net debit of $160


Price.......................................Profit / Loss..........................ROI %
2.00............................................ 90.00................................ 56.25%
2.50............................................ 90.00................................ 56.25%
2.71............................................ 68.50................................ 42.81%
3.40............................................... 0.00................................... 0.00%
3.60........................................... (19.80)............................ -12.38%
4.48........................................... (108.20)......................... -67.63%
5.00........................................... (160.00)...................... -100.00%
5.50........................................... (160.00)...................... -100.00%
6.00........................................... (160.00)...................... -100.00%
 
DGX:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/quest-diagnostics-raised-buy-203403289.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=DGX+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=dgx

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=DGX&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=DGX&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

DGX pays a 2.2% dividend

Trade #1:
With DGX at 60.14
Sell Jan '15 45 put for a net credit of $95
Yield = 95/4405 = 2.16% in 278 days or 2.8% annualized
Prob = 88%

Price..............................Profit / Loss.....................ROI%
33.75............................... (1030.00)................ -22.89%
41.70............................... (235.00)...................... -5.22%
44.05....................................... 0.00.......................... 0.00%
45.00.................................... 95.00........................... 2.16%
50.07.................................... 95.00........................... 2.16%
58.44.................................... 95.00........................... 2.16%
66.81.................................... 95.00........................... 2.16%
75.18.................................... 95.00........................... 2.16%


Trade #2
Jan '15 45/40 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/475 = 5.26% in 278 days or 6.9% annualized
Prob = 88%


Price...........................Profit / Loss..........................ROI %
30.00............................ (475.00)........................ -95.00%
35.00............................ (475.00)........................ -95.00%
40.00............................ (475.00)......................... -95.00%
44.75.................................... 0.00................................ 0.00%
45.00.................................. 25.00............................... 5.26%
50.00.................................. 25.00............................... 5.26%
55.00.................................. 25.00............................... 5.26%
65.00.................................. 25.00............................... 5.26%
75.00.................................. 25.00............................... 5.26%
 
ICUI:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-icu-medical-icui-050033026.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ICUI+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=icui

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=ICUI&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1


Trade:
With ICUI at 56.95
Aug 60/55 bear put spread for a net debit of $212


Price...............................Profit / Loss........................ROI %
40.00.................................... 288.00........................ 135.85%
45.00.................................... 288.00........................ 135.85%
50.00..................................... 288.00....................... 135.85%
55.00..................................... 288.00....................... 135.85%
57.88........................................... 0.00............................. 0.00%
60.00..................................... (212.00).................. -100.00%
65.00..................................... (212.00)................... -100.00%
70.00..................................... (212.00)................... -100.00%
75.00..................................... (212.00)................... -100.00%
 
IBM:

http://news.investors.com/041714-69...arnings.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ibm-q1-earnings-line-revs-122012568.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ibm-posts-lower-1q-earnings-211007222.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=IBM+Key+Statistics

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IBM

Trade:
With IBM at 189.87

Oct 220/225 bear call spread for a net credit of $30
Yield = 30/470 = 6.38% in 184 days or 12.7% annualized
Prob = 85%


Price......................Profit / Loss...........................ROM %
150.00...................... 30.00..................................... 6.38%
180.00...................... 30.00..................................... 6.38%
195.00...................... 30.00...................................... 6.38%
220.00...................... 30.00...................................... 6.38%
220.30......................... 0.00...................................... 0.00%
225.00.................. (470.00)............................... -94.00%
245.00.................. (470.00)............................... -94.00%
250.00.................. (470.00)............................... -94.00%
275.00.................. (470.00)............................... -94.00%
 
BX:

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...fits-analysts-optimistic/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_stw

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BX+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=bx

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BX&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:

With BX at 31.34

Jan '15 22/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $25

Yield = 25/175 = 14.28% in 269 days or 19.4% annualized

Prob = 92%

Expectation = .92(25) - .01(175) - .07(87.5) = 23 - 1.75 - 6.12 = 15.1


Price...................Profit / Loss..............ROM %
15.00................... (175.00)............. -87.50%
18.00................... (175.00)............. -87.50%
20.00................... (175.00)............. -87.50%
21.75........................ 0.00................. 0.00%
22.00...................... 25.00................ 14.28%
25.00...................... 25.00................ 14.28%
30.00...................... 25.00................ 14.28%
35.00...................... 25.00................ 14.28%
40.00...................... 25.00................ 14.28%
 
HD:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1267...er-this-afternoon.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=HD+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=HD

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HD&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:

With HD at 77.09
Nov 65/60 bull put spread for net credit of $48
Yield = 48/452 = 10.6% in 208 days or 18.6% annualized
Prob = 90%
Expectation = .9(48) - .02(452) - .08(226) = 43.2 - 9.0 - 18.1 = 16.1


Price.................Profit / Loss.............ROM %
45.00............... (452.00)............. -90.40%
54.86............... (452.00)............. -90.40%
60.00............... (452.00)............. -90.40%
64.52.................... 0.00................ 0.00%
65.00.................. 48.00............... 10.60%
70.00.................. 48.00................10.60%
75.00.................. 48.00............... 10.60%
80.00.................. 48.00............... 10.60%
90.00.................. 48.00................10.60%
 
TLM:


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-talisman-energy-tlm-050027064.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TLM+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=tlm

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TLM&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:

With TLM at 10.80

Jan '15 13/16 bear call spread for net credit of $30
Yield = 30/270 = 11.1% in 267 days or 15.5% annualized
Prob = 80%
Expectation =.8(30) - .06(265) - .14(132) = 24 - 16 - 18 = -10


Price..............Profit / Loss................ROM %
8.00................ 30.00.................... 11.11%
10.00.............. 30.00.....................11.11%
12.50.............. 30.00.....................11.11%
13.00.............. 30.00.................... 11.11%
13.30................ 0.00..................... 0.00%
15.19............ (189.20)................. -63.07%
16.00............ (270.00)................. -90.00%
17.50............ (270.00)................. -90.00%
20.00............ (270.00)................. -90.00%
 
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