Conservative Options Trades

[oldnemesis]

ACAT:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-arctic-cat-acat-060023711.html

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...obile-maker-arctic-cat-inc-stock-plunged.aspx

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ACAT+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=ACAT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lq9ayTSJorQ

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ACAT&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ACAT&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
with ACAT at 44.85
Jun 45/40 bear put spread for a net debit of $185
Potential Yield = 315/185 = 170% in 115 days


Price....................Profit / Loss...................ROI %
30.00..................... 315.00...................... 170.27%
35.00..................... 315.00...................... 170.27%
40.00..................... 315.00...................... 170.27%
40.34..................... 280.90...................... 151.84%
43.15........................... 0.00............................ 0.00%
45.00.................... (185.00)................... -100.00%
50.00.................... (185.00)................... -100.00%
55.00.................... (185.00)................... -100.00%

 

[oldnemesis]

WFM:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-whole-foods-market-060028610.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/whole-foods-plunges-earnings-miss-145006981.html

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...ods-growth-slows-as-competition-heats-up.aspx

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/8b1ab4f2-94e8-11e3-a8ac-00144feab7de.html#axzz2uPwZNssP

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=wfm

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=WFM+Key+Statistics

Trade:
with WFM at 53.55
Aug 62.50/65 bear call spread for a net credit of $35
Yield = 35/215 = 16.3% in 170 days or 35% annualized
Prob = 85.5%
Expectation = .855(35) - .09(215) - .055(107) = 29.9 - 19.4 - 5.9 = 4.6


Price...............................Profit / Loss....................ROM %
40.00................................... 35.00........................... 16.30%
50.00................................... 35.00........................... 14.00%
55.00................................... 35.00........................... 14.00%
62.50................................... 35.00........................... 14.00%
62.85...................................... 0.00.............................. 0.00%
64.65............................... (179.90)....................... -71.96%
65.00............................... (215.00)....................... -86.00%
70.00............................... (215.00)....................... -86.00%
75.00............................... (215.00)........................ -86.00%

 

[oldnemesis]

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc131230.htm

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SPY&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=HSTRX&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

 

[oldnemesis]

TLT:

Treasuries at 10%:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&s=TLT&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

With TLT at 107.35

Jan '16 85/80 bull put spread for a net credit of $80
yield = 80/420 = 19.05% in 687 days or 10.1% annualized
Prob = 96%
Expectation = .96(80) - .02(420) - .02(210) = 76.8 - 8.4 - 4.2 = 64.2

TLT currently yields 3.07%

 

[oldnemesis]

TASR:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/solid-q4-earnings-taser-181004567.html

http://news.investors.com/022614-69...es-rise.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TASR

Trade:
with TASR at 18.93
Jun 15/12 bull put spread for a net credit of $35
Yield = 35/265 = 13.2% in 114 days or 42% annualized
Prob = 70%
Expectation = .7(35) - .22(265) - .08(137) = 24.5 - 58.3 - 11.0 = -44.8

Price................................Profit / Loss.......................ROI %
9.00................................... (265.00)......................... -88.33%
11.00................................ (265.00)......................... -88.33%
12.00................................ (265.00)......................... -88.33%
14.65........................................ 0.00............................... 0.00%
14.78...................................... 12.60.............................. 4.20%
15.00...................................... 35.00............................ 13.20%
17.00...................................... 35.00............................ 13.20%
20.00...................................... 35.00............................ 13.20%
25.00...................................... 35.00............................ 13.20%

 

[oldnemesis]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SPY&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=c&c=

Trigger set-up??

With SPY at 184.85:

At open:
Buy To Open 1 SPY Mar14 185 Call SPDR S&P 500 100 Stop /Limit = 185.00/1.95
Buy To Open 1 SPY Mar14 183 Put SPDR S&P 500 100 Stop/ Limit = 183.00/1.90

One cancels the other.

 

[oldnemesis]

MCD:

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...risk-jpmorgan-says/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MCD&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:

Jun 87.50/85 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/225 = 11.11% in 113 days or 36% annualized
Prob = 91%
Expectation = .91(25) - .03(225) - .06(112) = 22.75 - 6.75 - 6.72 = 9.3


Price...................Profit / Loss...................ROI %
75.00.................... (225.00).................. -90.00%
80.00.................... (225.00).................. -90.00%
85.00.................... (225.00).................. -90.00%
85.44.................... (181.40).................. -72.56%
87.25............................ 0.00........................ 0.00%
87.50......................... 25.00..................... 11.11%
95.00......................... 25.00.................... 11.11%
100.00....................... 25.00.................... 11.11%
110.00....................... 25.00.................... 11.11%

 

[oldnemesis]

DVA:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101450261?__...hoo&doc=101450261%7cBuffett's+Berkshire+buys+

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/13/n...-private-chain-despite-track-record.html?_r=0

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=DVA+Profile

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/davita-healthcare-beats-q4-earnings-152004404.html

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/health...new-high-after-company-ups-its-2014-forecast/

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/davita-treat-thousands-saudi-arabia-091200894.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DVA&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With DVA at 68.02
Oct 55/50 bull put spread for a net credit of $40
Yield = 40/450 = 8.9% in 231 days or 14% annualized
Prob = 90%
Expectation = .9(40) - .03(450) - .07(225) = 36 - 13.5 - 15.75 = 6.75


Price........................Profit / Loss............................ROI %
40.00........................... (460.00)........................... -92.00%
45.00........................... (460.00)........................... -92.00%
50.00........................... (460.00)........................... -92.00%
54.60................................... 0.00................................. 0.00%
55.00................................. 40.00................................ 8.00%
60.00................................. 40.00................................ 8.00%
65.00................................. 40.00................................ 8.00%
75.00................................. 40.00................................ 8.00%
85.00................................. 40.00................................ 8.00%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_kidney

 

[oldnemesis]

GE:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/general-electric-slips-sell-210004927.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ge

I currently have a Jan '15 22/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $33 on GE

Based largely on this article:

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...electric-companys-backlog-swells-in-2013.aspx

Given Zacks downgrade I am going to add a 30/35 bear call spread for a net credit of $29 to produce an Iron Condor (30/35, 22/20).

My net yield will be 62/432 = 14.35% with 321 days left to expiration or 10% annualized.

Prob = 88%/84%
Expectation = .84(62) - .01(439) -.12(219) - .03(139) = 52.1 - 4.4 - 26.3 - 4.2 = 17.2


Price.............................Profit / Loss......................ROI %
15.00............................... (138.00)..................... -27.60%
20.00............................... (138.00)..................... -27.60%
20.52............................... (86.20)........................ -17.24%
21.38.................................... 0.00............................... 0.00%
22.00................................. 62.00............................. 14.35%
26.33................................. 62.00............................. 14.35%
30.00................................. 62.00............................. 14.35%
30.62..................................... 0.00............................... 0.00%
32.13.............................. (151.40)........................ -30.28%
35.00.............................. (438.00)........................ -87.60%
45.00.............................. (438.00)........................ -87.60%

 

[oldnemesis]

EHTH:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ehealth-down-strong-sell-214005896.html

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1243...k-is-ehealth-ehth.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ehealth-inc-announces-fourth-quarter-210500505.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=EHTH+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EHTH&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=EHTH&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EHTH+Basic+Chart&t=5d

Trade:

May 60/65 bear call spread for a net credit of $60
Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 75 days or 66% annualized
Prob = 85%
Expectation = .85(60) - .088(440) - .07(220) = 51 - 39 - 15 = -3


Current Price: $48


Price...................................Profit / Loss........................ROI%
35.00..................................... 60.00.............................. 13.60%
45.00..................................... 60.00.............................. 13.60%
55.00..................................... 60.00.............................. 13.60%
60.00..................................... 60.00.............................. 13.60%
60.60......................................... 0.00................................. 0.00%
62.97.................................. (236.70).......................... -47.34%
65.00.................................. (440.00).......................... -88.00%
70.00.................................. (440.00).......................... -88.00%
75.00.................................. (440.00).......................... -88.00%