Conservative Options Trades

SJM:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/smucker-facing-peanut-butter-fruit-191027121.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SJM&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:

Jul 105/110 bear call spread for a net credit of $50

Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 149 days or 27% annualized

Prob SJM < 105 = 80%

Expectation = .8(50) - .12(450) - .08(225) = 40 - 54 - 18 = -32



Price.......................Profit / Loss........................ROI %
75.00......................... 50.00............................... 11.11%
80.00......................... 50.00............................... 11.11%
90.00......................... 50.00................................ 11.11%
105.00...................... 50.00................................ 11.11%
105.50......................... 0.00................................... 0.00%
110.00.................. (450.00)............................ -90.00%
120.00.................. (450.00)............................ -90.00%
130.00.................. (450.00)............................ -90.00%
135.00.................. (450.00)............................ -90.00%
 
TSLA:

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...n-turbo-charged-earnings/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_stw

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...171-3685fd8150b3/Q4'13 Shareholder Letter.pdf

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TSLA+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TSLA&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:

Jun 120/115 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/475 = 5.3% in 121 days or 15.9% annualized
Prob = 85%
Expectation = .85(25) - .12(475) - .03(237) = 21.25 - 57 - 7.11 = -43


Price..............................Profit / Loss.....................ROI %
86.25.............................. (475.00)...................... -95.00%
115.00........................... (475.00)...................... -95.00%
116.15........................... (359.90)....................... -71.98%
119.75................................... 0.00.............................. 0.00%
120.00................................. 25.00............................. 5.00%
147.63................................. 25.00............................. 5.00%
179.10................................. 25.00............................. 5.00%
210.58................................. 25.00............................. 5.00%
242.05................................. 25.00............................. 5.00%

Negative expectation :Too risky.

There are no conservative trades available for TSLA

:-)
 
WMT:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wal-mart-offers-weak-outlook-171255193.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wal-mart-profit-slips-u-122023134.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=WMT+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WMT&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
with WMT at 73.57
Jan '15 82.5/85 bear call spread for a net credit of $27
Yield = 27/223 = 12.1% in 330 days or 13.4% annualized
Prob = 80%
Expectation = .80(27) - .16(223) - .04(112) = 21.6 - 35.7 - 4.5 = -18.6


Price.........................Profit / Loss..................ROI %
55.00............................ 27.00......................... 12.10%
65.00............................ 27.00......................... 12.10%
75.00............................ 27.00......................... 12.10%
82.50............................ 27.00......................... 12.10%
82.77................................. 0.00........................... 0.00%
85.00.......................... (223.00)..................... -89.20%
90.00.......................... (223.00)..................... -89.20%
95.00.......................... (223.00)...................... -89.20%
100.00....................... (223.00)...................... -89.20%
 
question,

if every options trader is groomed to trade the sameway, i.e buy low vol sell high vol, follow certaib tech patterns, look at fundamentals the same way etc, doesn't that suggest there should be a way to capitalize on the status quo?
 
MSO:

"Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia has made some smart moves lately, including shrinking its publishing operations and limiting its relationship with J.C. Penney to certain nonoffending categories, a move that likely appeased key licensee Macy's. With little debt and a strong roster of major licensee partners, it is an intriguing bet for investors."

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MSO&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/martha-stewart-living-3rd-quarter-122845369.html

http://www.businessweek.com/article...medias-great-turnaround-hope?campaign_id=yhoo

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...a-stewart-living-omnimedia-have-upside-a.aspx

Trade:
With MSO at 4.60
Jun 2.5/5 bull call spread for a net debit of $190

Price.................................Profit / Loss..........................ROI %
2.00.................................... (190.00)........................... -100.00%
2.50.................................... (190.00)........................... -100.00%
2.71.................................... (168.50).............................. -88.68%
3.60.................................... (80.20)................................ -42.21%
4.40......................................... 0.00....................................... 0.00%
4.48......................................... 8.20....................................... 4.32%
4.60...................................... 21.50.................................... 11.3%
5.00....................................... 60.00.................................... 31.58%
5.37....................................... 60.00.................................... 31.58%
6.25....................................... 60.00.................................... 31.58%
MSO will announce its financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year ended December 31, 2013 on February 25, 2014

http://www.marthastewart.com/990875/hour-children-gives-women-prisoners-new-start
 
DDS:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dillards-q4-earnings-miss-estimates-143941390.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=DDS+Key+Statistics

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DDS

Trade:

Aug 100/105 bear call spread for a net credit of $50
Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 172 days or 23.6% annualized
Prob = 75%
Expectation = .75(50) - .20(450) - .05(225) = 37.5 - 90 - 11.25 = -63.75

Quite a disadvantageous expectation.


Price...........................Profit / Loss...............ROM %
65.00............................ 50.00......................... 11.10%
75.00............................ 50.00......................... 11.10%
90.00............................ 50.00......................... 11.10%
100.00......................... 50.00......................... 11.10%
100.50............................ 0.00............................ 0.00%
104.05..................... (355.50)..................... -71.10%
105.00..................... (450.00)..................... -88.90%
110.00..................... (450.00)..................... -88.90%
120.00..................... (450.00)..................... -88.90%
 
Question:

Today I placed a spread trade of what I thought IB was going to place as a debit bull call spread on BKS. I selected "vertical" and debit (didn't notice the trade got switched calls got switched around). I wanted to place an ITM bull call spread.

short 14 call
long 13 call
debit: $75.
potential profit: $25 at expiration.

Instead, the trade came out looking like this. From what I think it is is a bear call spread.

short 13 call -+ 492
long 14 call. - 568
net debit: $75.
potential profit:

On IB if I wanted to put a bull call spread on ITM options, I need to select credit (doesn't make sense to me since its going to be at a debit.) can someone elaborate on how I would do this?

So annoyed with IB right now.. now I'm long a call that I didnt want. WTF.
 
oldnemesis said:
WMT:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wal-mart-offers-weak-outlook-171255193.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wal-mart-profit-slips-u-122023134.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=WMT+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WMT&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
with WMT at 73.57
Jan '15 82.5/85 bear call spread for a net credit of $27
Yield = 27/223 = 12.1% in 330 days or 13.4% annualized
Prob = 80%
Expectation = .80(27) - .16(223) - .04(112) = 21.6 - 35.7 - 4.5 = -18.6


Price.........................Profit / Loss..................ROI %
55.00............................ 27.00......................... 12.10%
65.00............................ 27.00......................... 12.10%
75.00............................ 27.00......................... 12.10%
82.50............................ 27.00......................... 12.10%
82.77................................. 0.00........................... 0.00%
85.00.......................... (223.00)..................... -89.20%
90.00.......................... (223.00)..................... -89.20%
95.00.......................... (223.00)...................... -89.20%
100.00....................... (223.00)...................... -89.20%
More...

How come you're selling this so far out in terms of date? Are you waiting for this to expire worthless? or will you close out the position earlier? can you explain your trade ? thanks!
 
{as a matter of policy I do not reply to any posters in this thread. Please don't post here.....thanx}

One of the many disadvantages of growing old is that your friends and family start to die off and you are left to grieve for them.

About thirty years ago I was in San Diego for a week with a young woman who was very unhappy and very depressed. She made me afraid that she would harm herself and I was very vigilant to stay with her and spent endless hours talking to her, reasoning with her and trying to help her break the depression that gripped her.

Towards the end of that time we were walking in a park on the waterfront next to the hotel and she began to sing an old southern protestant hymn.

Today I was reminded of that week... and that old protestant hymn.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWd7K4sJy64

I come to the garden alone,
While the dew is still on the roses,
And the voice I hear falling on my ear
The Son of God discloses.

And He walks with me, and He talks with me,
And He tells me I am His own;
And the joy we share as we tarry there,
None other has ever known.

He speaks, and the sound of His voice
Is so sweet the birds hush their singing,
And the melody that He gave to me
Within my heart is ringing.

And He walks with me, and He talks with me,
And He tells me I am His own;
And the joy we share as we tarry there,
None other has ever known.

I’d stay in the garden with Him,
Though the night around me be falling,
But He bids me go; through the voice of woe
His voice to me is calling.

http://www.malloryledfordministries.com/biography/default.html


fountainday_900x600.jpg
 
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