Conservative Options Trades

BBY:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/best-buy-holiday-sales-fall-130226548.html

http://online.barrons.com/article/S...79324671626942380.html?mod=BOL_hp_highlight_2

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BBY+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=bby

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=BBY&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Trade:

With BBY at 26.83

June 40/45 bear call spread for a net credit of $26
Yield = 26/474 = 5.5% in 154 days or 13% annualized
Prob = 92%
Expectation = .92(26) - .04(474) - .04(237) = 23.9 - 19.0 - 9.5 = -4.6


Price...............Profit / Loss................ROI %
25.00................ 26.00.................... 5.5%
30.00................ 26.00.................... 5.5%
35.00................ 26.00.................... 5.5%
40.00................ 26.00.................... 5.5%
40.26.................. 0.00.................... 0.00%
41.65................. (139.30)............ -27.86%
45.00................. (474.00)............ -94.80%
50.00................. (474.00)............ -94.80%
55.00................. (474.00)............ -94.80%
 
GE:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...forecasts-on-jet-engine-sales.html?cmpid=yhoo
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ge-earnings-jump-sales-rise-214500216.html
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...electric-companys-backlog-swells-in-2013.aspx
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GE+Key+Statistics
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GE&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With GE at 26.58
Jan '15 22/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $33
Yield = 33/167 = 19.8% in 369 days or 19.5% annualized
Prob = 89%
Expectation = .89(33) - .03(167) - .08(83) = 29.37 - 5.01 - 6.64 = 17.72



Price.................................Profit / Loss.........................ROM %
15.00.................................... (167.00)........................... -83.50%
18.00.................................... (167.00)............................ -83.50%
20.00.................................... (167.00)............................ -83.50%
21.67............................................ 0.00................................... 0.00%
22.00......................................... 33.00................................. 19.80%
23.00......................................... 33.00................................. 19.80%
25.00......................................... 33.00................................. 19.80%
29.00......................................... 33.00................................. 19.80%
33.00......................................... 33.00................................. 19.80%
 
THC:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tenet-downgraded-sell-181005508.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tenet-healthcare-falls-analyst-lowers-181130143.html
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...-earnings-guidance/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=THC+Key+Statistics
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=THC
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=THC+Basic+Chart

Trade:
With THC at 45.30
May 45/43 bear put spread for a net debit of $90

Price...........................Profit / Loss.......................ROI %
32.00............................. 110.00........................ 122.22%
36.00............................. 110.00........................ 122.22%
41.00............................. 110.00........................ 122.22%
43.00............................. 110.00........................ 122.22%
44.10................................... 0.00.............................. 0.00%
45.00............................... (90.00).................... -100.00%
46.00............................... (90.00)................... -100.00%
51.00............................... (90.00)................... -100.00%
56.00............................... (90.00)................... -100.00%
 
PTM:

(a portfolio diversification trade)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...otes-for-strike-to-hobble-platinum-mines.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-p...-233027147.html;_ylt=A2KJ3CTRi99S.VsAaJKTmYlQ

http://www.businessinsider.com/platinum-prices-surging-2014-1

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-etfs-play-platinums-coming-202430720.html

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/113382/time-to-buy-this-precious-metal-etf

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=PTM&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=tlt&ql=1&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=PTM&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Trade:
With PTM at 16.23
May 16/18 bull call spread for a net debit of $75


Price....................Profit / Loss..........ROI %
12.00...................... (75.00)........... -100.00%
14.00...................... (75.00)........... -100.00%
16.00...................... (75.00)........... -100.00%
16.75......................... 0.00............... 0.00%
18.00...................... 125.00............ 166.67%
19.00...................... 125.00............ 166.67%
20.00...................... 125.00............ 166.67%
22.00...................... 125.00............ 166.67%

If one is not afraid to acquire PTM one could sell the Aug 16 put for $80 giving 5% to Aug 15th (206 days)
 
MCD:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...le-changed-on-u-s-store-sales.html?cmpid=yhoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-profit-despite-fewer-customers-132023157.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/mcdo...hanged-nFb3WU38Qu~Sc4whTkEYkA.html?cmpid=yhoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MCD+Basic+Chart&t=5y

Trade:
premarket MCD is down 44 cents at 94.44

Jan '15 105/110/70/65 Iron Condor for a net credit of $81
Yield = 81/419 = 19.3% in 358 days or 19.7% annualized
Prob = 80/99%


Price..............................Profit / Loss.....................ROM %
60.00.............................. (419.00)....................... -83.80%
65.00.............................. (419.00)....................... -83.80%
65.78.............................. (340.70)....................... -68.14%
69.19..................................... 0.00 ..............................0.00%
70.00................................... 81.00.......................... 19.33%
80.00................................... 81.00.......................... 19.33%
100.00................................ 81.00.......................... 19.33%
105.00................................ 81.00.......................... 19.33%
105.81.................................... 0.00.......................... 0.00%
110.00............................... (419.00).................. -83.80%
137.50............................... (419.00).................. -83.80%

Profitable between 69.19 and 105.81 with a prob of 77%
 
BAX:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/baxter-beats-earnings-revenues-200705501.html

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...ernational-inc-will-be-nit-picked-but-th.aspx

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/baxter-reports-fourth-quarter-2013-120000141.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAX


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BAX+Basic+Chart&t=2y

Trade:
With BAX at $69
Jan '15 72.5/75 bear call spread for a net credit of $80
Yield = 80/170 = 47% in 358 days or 48% annualized


Price........................Profit / Loss.............ROI %
55.00.................................. 80.00........................... 47.00%
60.00.................................. 80.00...........................47.00%
65.00.................................. 80.00........................... 47.00%
70.00.................................. 80.00........................... 47.00%
73.30..................................... 0.00........................... 0.00%
75.00............................... (170.00).................... -68.00%
80.00............................... (170.00).................... -68.00%
85.00............................... (170.00).................... -68.00%
90.00............................... (170.00).................... -68.00%
 
HLF:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-day-herbalife-hlf-060018590.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=hlf

I posted a Jan '15 30/25 bull put spread on Dec 26th.

Update using today's numbers:
With HLF at 65.92
Jan '15 30/25 bull put spread for a net credit of $80
Yield = 80/420 = 19.0% in 357 days or 19.5% annualized
Prob = 78%
Expectation = .78(80) - .15(420) - .07(210) = 62.4 - 63 - 14.7 = -15.3

Price.............Profit / Loss................ROI %
20.00...................... (420.00).................... -84.00%
25.00...................... (420.00).................... -84.00%
29.20.............................. 0.00.......................... 0.00%
30.00........................... 80.00....................... 16.00%
35.00........................... 80.00....................... 16.00%
40.00.......................... 80.00........................ 16.00%
45.00.......................... 80.00........................ 16.00%
50.00.......................... 80.00........................ 16.00%
55.00.......................... 80.00........................ 16.00%
 
PG:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-g-beats-earnings-fx-220832792.html

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101362150?__...hoo&doc=101362150%7cThis+boring+stock+won+tod

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ty-is-trimming-grooming-sales.html?cmpid=yhoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PG+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=PG

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PG&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With PG at 79.18
Jan '15 60/55/90/95 Iron Condor for a net credit of $92
Yield = 92/408 = 22.5% in 356 days or 23.1% annualized
Prob = 73%
Expectation = .73(92) - .137(408) - .13(204) =67.2 - 55.9 - 26.52 = -15.2


Price.....................Profit / Loss................ROI %
45.00............................ (408.00)........................... -81.60%
55.00............................ (408.00)........................... -81.60%
56.12............................ (295.60)........................... -59.12%
59.08................................... 0.00................................... 0.00%
60.00................................. 92.00.................................23.10%
70.00................................. 92.00.................................23.10%
80.00................................. 92.00..................................23.10%
90.00................................. 92.00..................................23.10%
90.92.................................... 0.00................................... 0.00%
95.00.............................. (408.00)........................... -81.60%
120.00........................... (408.00)............................ -81.60%
 
BMY:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/brist...;_ylg=X3oDMTBhYWM1a2sxBGxhbmcDZW4tVVM-;_ylv=3

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/25/b...pected-results.html?partner=yahoofinance&_r=0

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bristol-myers-beats-sales-profit-130411950.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BMY&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=BMY&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=BMY&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Trade:
With BMY at 50.94
Jan '15 32/28 bull put spread for a net credit of $30
Yield = 30/370 = 8.10% in 356 days or 8.3% annualized
Prob = 95%
Expectation = .95(30) - .02(470) - .03(235) = 28.5 - 9.4 - 7.05 = 12.1


Price..........................Profit / Loss................ROI %
21.00........................... (370.00)................. -92.50%
28.00........................... (370.00)................. -92.50%
29.19........................... (251.00).................. -62.75%
31.70.................................... 0.00....................... 0.00%
32.00................................. 30.00....................... 8.10%
35.00................................. 30.00....................... 8.10%
40.00................................. 30.00....................... 8.10%
50.00................................. 30.00....................... 8.10%
60.00................................. 30.00....................... 8.10%
 
URBN:

http://online.barrons.com/article/S...79334734005936704.html?mod=BOL_hp_highlight_2

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/urban-outfitters-reports-record-holiday-124000334.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sector-wrap-retailers-good-bet-215740778.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=URBN+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=URBN

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=URBN&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=URBN&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Trade:
With URBN at $36
Jan '15 25/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $40
Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 354 days or 9% annualized
Prob = 88%
Expectation = .88(40) - .03(460) - .09(230) = 35.2 - 13.8 - 20.7 = 0

Price..........................Profit / Loss................ROI %
15.00.......................... (460.00).................. -92.00%
20.00.......................... (460.00).................. -92.00%
20.76.......................... (384.20).................. -76.84%
24.60.................................. 0.00........................ 0.00%
25.00............................... 40.00........................ 8.00%
26.82............................... 40.00........................ 8.00%
32.88............................... 40.00........................ 8.00%
38.94............................... 40.00........................ 8.00%
45.00............................... 40.00........................ 8.00%
 
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