Conservative Options Trades

CPB:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/campbell-still-underperform-191004379.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=CPB&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Trade:

Jan '15 50/55 bear call spread for net credit of $80
Yield = 80/420 = 19% in 381 days or 18.2% annualized
Prob = 74%
Expectation = .74(80) - .16(429) - .1(214) = 59.2 - 68.6 - 21.4 = -31


250px-Joseph_Campbell_Preserve_Co._Camden%2C_NJ_1894.jpg


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Soup_Company
 
Back down south now... safe from the North's bitter snow. Changed planes in Charlotte... what a nightmare that place is.

PAY:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-verifone-systems-pay-055015921.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PAY+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=pay

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PAY+Basic+Chart&t=2y

Trade:
With PAY at 25.79
Jan '15 35/40 bear call spread for a net credit of $45
Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 378 days or 9.5% annualized
Prob = 87%
Expectation = .87(45) - .05(455) - .08(228) = 39.2 - 22.7 - 18.2 = -2


Price.........Profit / Loss..........%
20.00 ............45.00 ...........9.50%
25.00 ............45.00 ...........9.50%
30.00 ............45.00 ...........9.50%
35.00 ............45.00 ...........9.50%
35.45 ..............0.00 ...........0.00%
37.61 .........(216.30) ........-43.26%
40.00 .........(455.00) ........-91.00%
45.00 .........(455.00) ........-91.00%
50.00 .........(455.00)........ -91.00%
 
MUB:

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfun...-look-at-muni-cefs/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=624759

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/three-municipal-bond-etfs-2014-165934341.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MUB+Basic+Chart&t=5y

Trade:

Aug 95/98 bull put spread for a net credit of $45
Yield = 45/255 = 17.6% in 225 days or 29% annualized
Prob = 92%
Expectation = .92(45) - .02(255) - .06(127) = 41.4 - 5.1 - 7.6 = 28.7


Price.................Profit / Loss..................%
71.25 .................(255.00) ..............-85.00%
82.54 .................(255.00) ..............-85.00%
94.43 .................(255.00) ..............-85.00%
95.00 .................(255.00) ..............-85.00%
97.55 ......................0.00 ..................0.00%
98.00 .....................45.00 ................17.60%
106.32 ...................45.00 ............... 17.60%
118.21 ...................45.00 ................17.60%
130.10 ...................45.00 ................17.60%
 
RYL:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ryland-slips-strong-sell-214503338.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=RYL+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=RYL

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=RYL&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Trade:
With RYL at 42.84
jan '15 60/65 bear call spread for a net credit of $50
Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 377 days or 10.8% annualized
Prob = 85%
Expectation = .85(50) - .1(450) - .05(225) = 42.5 - 45.0 - 11.25 = -13.75


Price...............Profit / Loss........ %
35.00 ................ 50.00.......... 11.1%
40.00 ................ 50.00.......... 11.1%
50.00 ................ 50.00.......... 11.1%
60.00 .................50.00.......... 11.1%
60.50 ...................0.00........... 0.00%
61.40 .................(90.40).......-18.08%
65.00 ................(450.00)...... -90.00%
70.00 ................(450.00)...... -90.00%
85.00 ................(450.00)...... -90.00%

http://www.wcnc.com/mobile-content/...er-causes-major-airport-delays-238547601.html
 
SPY:

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/closi...inues-as-service-economy-disappoints-cm316165

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy

two point 10 day trade:

With SPY at 182.36

Jan '14 182/180 bear put spread for net debit of $61


Price..................Profit / Loss.......... %
165.00................. 139.00 ..........227.87%
170.00................. 139.00 ..........227.87%
175.00................. 139.00 ..........227.87%
180.00................. 139.00 ..........227.87%
181.39.................... 0.00 ..............0.00%
182.00................. (61.00) ........-100.00%
185.00................. (61.00) ........-100.00%
190.00................. (61.00) ........-100.00%
195.00................. (61.00) ........-100.00%
 
SNDK:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sandisk-upgraded-strong-buy-143008440.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SNDK+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=sndk

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=SNDK&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=SNDK&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Trade:

Jan '15 40/35 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/475 = 5.26% in 373 days or 5.15% annualized
Prob = 93%
Expectation = .93(25) - .03(475) - .04(238) = 23.25 - 14.25 - 9.52 = -.52

With SNDK having run up 50% in the past year, my fear of a market pull back, a somewhat heavy valuation, a fairly light return of 5% and the expectation calculation indicating pretty fairly priced options this is not a buy for me regardless of what Zack's thinks.

I pass.
 
PM:

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/philip-morris-slips-to-strong-sell-analyst-blog-cm316481

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...-the-dollar-did-it/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PM&ql=1

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=PM

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PM

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=PM&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With PM at 84.68
Jan '15 95/100 bear call spread for a net credit of $60
Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 374 days or 13.3% annualized
Prob = 78%
Expectation = .78(60) - .13(440) - .09(220) = 46.8 - 57.2 - 19.8 = -30.2

Price....................Profit / Loss..............%
65.00...................... 60.00.............. 13.30%
70.00...................... 60.00.............. 13.30%
80.00...................... 60.00.............. 13.30%
95.00...................... 60.00.............. 13.30%
95.60........................ 0.00............... 0.00%
100.00.................. (440.00)........... -88.00%
110.00.................. (440.00)........... -88.00%
115.00.................. (440.00)........... -88.00%
125.00.................. (440.00)........... -88.00%
 
JOSB:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jos-bank-mens-wearhouse-war-151004385.html

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/01/06/next-steps-for-jos-a-bankmens-wearhouse/?mod=yahoo_hs

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JOSB

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=JOSB+Basic+Chart

Trade:
With JOSB at 55.70
Jul '14 45/40 bull put spread for a net credit of $30
Yield = 30/470 = 6.4% in 191 days or 12.2% annualized
Prob = ???
Expectation = ???


Price................Profit / Loss..............%
30.00 ...............(470.00) .............-94.00%
35.00 ...............(470.00) .............-94.00%
40.00 ...............(470.00) .............-94.00%
44.70 ....................0.00 .................0.00%
45.00 ...................30.00 ................6.40%
50.00 ...................30.00 ................6.40%
55.00 ...................30.00 ................6.40%
60.00 ...................30.00 ................6.40%
65.00 ...................30.00 ................6.40%
 
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