Conservative Options Trades

ARO:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1222...is-rallying-today.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ARO&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ARO&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

With ARO at 8.97 and allowing three months for the truth to be known:

Trade 1:
Apr 9/12 bull call spread for a net debit of $91

Trade 2:
Apr 9/5 bull put spread for a net credit of $96

Trade 3:
Apr 8 long call

.................................P/L........................................
Price........Trade 1.............Trade 2...........Trade 3
6.00...........(91).................(200)................(170)
7.00...........(91).................(103)................(170)
8.00...........(91)....................(5).................(170)
9.00...........(91).....................96..................(70)
9.91.............0.00...................96..................20
10.00...........7.60...................96..................30
11.00.........108.00..................96.................130
12.00.........209.00..................96.................230
13.00.........209.00..................96.................330
 
NWN:
Income oriented utility

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...-aristocrats-that-look-ripe-for-the-pick.aspx

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=NWN+Profile

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=nwn

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NWN&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=NWN

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NWN&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
with NWN at 42.10

Sell June 40 put for $100.
Yield = 100/3900 = 2.56% in 161 days or 5.8% annualized.
(NWN pays a 4.4% dividend)
Prob NWN > 40 = 67%

The intent is to be put NWN, collect the dividend and sell calls. If not put we will sell puts again.
 
TGT:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/massive-target-breach-could-lasting-215453304.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=TGT&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Trade:
with TGT at 62.62
Jul 70/72.5 bear call spread for a credit of $27
Yield = 27/223 = 12.1% in 189 days or 23.4% annualized
Prob = 83.5%
Expectation = .835(27) - .1(223) - .065(111) = 22.5 - 22.3 - 7.15 = -7


Price.....................Profit / Loss............%
55.00 .....................27.00 ...............12.10%
60.00 .....................27.00 ...............12.10%
65.00 .....................27.00 ...............12.10%
70.00 .....................27.00 ...............12.10%
70.27 .......................0.00 ................0.00%
72.50 .....................(223.00) .........-89.20%
75.00 .....................(223.00) .........-89.20%
80.00 .....................(223.00) .........-89.20%
85.00 .....................(223.00) .........-89.20%
 
CORN:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/corn-etf-surges-surprise-harvest-230102950.html

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/78132/Buy-American-with-these-Three-Commodity-ETFs

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=corn

Trade:

With CORN at 31.16

May 31/32 bull call spread for a net debit of $45


Price................Profit / Loss.............. %
26.00 .................(45.00) ............-100.00%
29.00 .................(45.00) ............-100.00%
31.00 .................(45.00) ............-100.00%
31.45 ....................0.00 ..................0.00%
32.00 ...................55.00 ...............122.22%
33.00 ...................55.00 ...............122.22%
34.00 ...................55.00 ...............122.22%
 
RYN:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-rayonier-ryn-060025566.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-stocks-in-the-red-inflation-falls-to-boe-target-2014-01-14

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/06/rayonier-goes-timberrrrrr.aspx

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=RYN&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=RYN+Key+Statistics

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ryn

Trade:

With RYN at 41.53

Feb 40/35 bear put spread for a net debit of $60


Price.............Profit / Loss............ROI %
26.25.............. 440.00 .............733.33%
31.18 ..............440.00 .............733.33%
35.00 ..............440.00 .............733.33%
36.36 ..............304.10............. 506.83%
39.40 ..................0.00 ................0.00%
40.00 ...............(60.00) ..........-100.00%
41.54 ...............(60.00) ..........-100.00%
46.73 ...............(60.00) ..........-100.00%
51.91 ...............(60.00) ..........-100.00%

BTW:
America is no more:
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/bourbon-american-foreign-ties-21523151
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Overholt
http://theoldswhiskeys.com/
 
CELG:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/celgene-provides-rosy-long-term-160005934.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/celgene-raises-sales-eps-forecasts-173426271.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/celgene-cuts-4q-2013-adj-192450371.html

http://www.celgene.com/

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CELG+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=celg

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=CELG&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CELG+Basic+Chart

Trade:

With CELG at 166.03

Jan '15 100/95 bull put spread for a net credit of $50
Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 367 days or 11% annualized
Prob = 91%
Expectation = .91(50) - .07(450) - .02(225) = 45.5 - 31.5 - 5.0 = 9.0


Price......................Profit / Loss................ROM %
90.00 .....................(450.00) ..................-90.00%
95.00 .....................(450.00) ..................-90.00%
97.41 .....................(209.40) ..................-41.88%
99.50 ..........................0.00 ......................0.00%
100.00 .......................50.00 ....................11.10%
124.94 .......................50.00 ....................11.10%
152.47 .......................50.00 ....................11.10%
180.00 .......................50.00 ....................11.10%
207.54 .......................50.00 ....................11.10%
 
AA:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101334401?__...hoo&doc=101334401%7cWhat+the+F-150+tells+us+a

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101327719

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12237892/1/why-alcoa-aa-is-gaining-today.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AA+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AA+Basic+Chart&t=2y

With AA at 10.32:

Trade 1:
Jan '15 10/12 Bull call spread for a net debit of $69

Trade 2
Jan '15 10/5 Bull Put Spread for a net credit of $102

...............Trade 1....................................Trade 2.................
Price........Profit / Loss............%............Profit / Loss............%
7.50 ...........(69.00) ...........-100%...........(144)............(36)%
9.00 ...........(69.00) ...........-100% ..........0.00.................0%
10.00 .........(69.00) ...........-100% ...........102................26%
10.45 .........(23.50) .............-34%............102................26%
10.69 ...........0.00 ..................0%............102................26%
12.00 ........131.00 ...............190%...........102................26%
13.50 ........131.00 ...............190%...........102................26%
15.00 ........131.00 ...............190%...........102................26%
 
ACN:

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/...ands-of-a-new-federal-contractor.html/?ref=YF

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ACN+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=acn

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=ACN&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=ACN&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Trade:

With ACN at 81.95

Aug 70/65 bull put spread for a net credit of $55
Yield = 55/445 = 12.4% in 213 days or 21% annualized
Prob = 88%
Expectation = .88(55) - .04(445) - .08(222) = 48.4 - 17.8 - 17.7 = 12.9


Price..............Profit / Loss................ROM %
48.75............. (445.00) ................-89.00%
59.05............. (445.00) ................-89.00%
65.00 .............(445.00) ................-89.00%
69.45 .................0.00 .....................0.00%
69.90 ................45.00 ....................9.00%
70.00 ................55.00 ...................12.40%
80.75 ................55.00 ...................12.40%
91.59 ................55.00 ...................12.40%
100.00 ..............55.00 ...................12.40%
 
SSI:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-stage-stores-ssi-060023720.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stage-stores-reports-sales-nine-110000060.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SSI&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With SSI at 19.62

APR 22.50/17.50 bear put spread for a net debit of $330


Price................Profit / Loss...........ROI %
13.00................ 170.00.............. 51.52%
16.00................ 170.00.............. 51.52%
17.50................ 170.00.............. 51.52%
19.00.................. 16.60............... 5.03%
19.20.................... 0.00............... 0.00%
20.00..................(85.00).............-25.00%
22.50............... (330.00)........... -100.00%
25.09............... (330.00)........... -100.00%
28.13............... (330.00)........... -100.00%
 
INTC:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/intel-profit-rises-on-modest-sales-growth-2014-01-16

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/amex-intel-to-report-earnings-after-hours-2014-01-16?siteid=yhoof2

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/119936/intel-beats-revs-misses-eps-guides-flat

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-fourth-quarter-revenue-exceeds-210904920.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=INTC&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With INTC at 26.54
Jul 30/33 bear call spread for a net credit of $26
Yield = 26/274 = 9.5% in 183 days or 18.9% annualized


Price..................Profit / Loss.............ROI %
20.00.................. 26.00 ...................9.50%
25.00.................. 26.00 ...................9.50%
28.00.................. 26.00 ...................9.50%
30.00.................. 26.00 ...................9.50%
30.26.................... 0.00 ...................0.00%
32.63................. (236.60) .............-78.87%
33.00................. (274.00) ..............-91.33%
36.94................. (274.00) ..............-91.33%
41.25................. (274.00) ..............-91.33%
 
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