Conservative Options Trades

ETR:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/184...e-buy-for-utility-income-seekers?source=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ETR+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=ETR

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=etr

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ETR&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

ETR pays a 5.3% dividend
Trade:
With ETR at 62.08
June '14 57.50/55 bull put spread for a net credit of $60
Yield = 60/190 = 31.6% in 198 days or 58.2% annualized
Prob = 71%
Expectation = .71(60) - .19(190) - .1(95) = 42.6 - 36.1 - 9.5 = -3


Price........Profit / Loss........%
45.00 .......(190.00) .......-76.00%
50.00 .......(190.00) .......-76.00%
55.00 .......(190.00) .......-76.00%
55.56 .......(134.00) .......-53.60%
56.90 ..........0.00 ............0.00%
57.50 ........60.00 ...........31.00%
60.00 ........60.00 ...........31.00%
65.00 ........60.00 ...........31.00%
70.00 ........60.00 ...........31.00%
 
Rechecking the 'Hunger Games stocks':

LGF:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LGF

IMAX:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IMAX

RGC:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGC

Of the three stocks only RGC looks like it will make a profit.

The Christmas season into new years is a good time for movie theaters and is not dependent solely on the Hunger Games movie. So I think RGC will make a profit on that bull call spread.

The other two already had the success of the movie built into the stock and are losing money from when that article first recommended them.

BTW that article touting the Hunger Games stocks has mysteriously disappeared.

I wonder why?
 
PEP:

"PepsiCo broke down below support, by closing below 84. This completes a short-term top on its chart. In addition, there is a sell signal from the put-call ratio. "

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=PEP&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000223807&__source=yahoo|headline|quote|video|&par=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PEP+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=PEP+Competitors

With PEP at 83.15

Trade #1:

Buy Jan '14 85 put for a net debit of $266

TRADE #2

Buy Jan '14 85 put and sell Jan '14 80 put for a net debit of $202

..............................P/L...................
Price......Trade #1...............Trade #2
70..........$1224.....................$298
75...........$724......................$298
80...........$224......................$298
82.34.......$0.0.......................$55
82.98.......($42).....................$0.0
83.15.......($85)....................($37)
85..........($266)...................($202)
90..........($266)...................($202)
95..........($266)...................($202)
100........($266)...................($202)
 
PEP C'td:

Trade #3

Sell Jan '14 82.50 call and buy Jan '14 85 call for a net credit of $113

..............................................P/L............................
Price......Trade #1...............Trade #2..........Trade #3
70..........$1224.....................$298...............$113
75...........$724......................$298...............$113
80...........$224......................$298...............$113
82.34.......$0.0.......................$55................$113
82.98.......($42).....................$0.0................$68
83.15.......($85)....................($37)...............$12
85..........($266)...................($202).............($137)
90..........($266)...................($202).............($137)
95..........($266)...................($202).............($137)
100........($266)...................($202).............($137)
 
DG:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-general-earnings-beat-estimate-184727244.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-general-upgraded-conviction-buy-103237100.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=DG+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DG+Basic+Chart

Trade:
With DG at 60.2
May 50/45 bull put spread for a net credit of $60
Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 160 days or 31.1% annualized
Prob = 86%
Expectation = .86(60) - .04(440) - .10(220) = 51.6 - 17.6 - 22.0 = 12


Price...............Profit / Loss...........%
35.00.............. (440.00)......... -88.00%
40.00.............. (440.00)......... -88.00%
45.00.............. (440.00)......... -88.00%
49.40.................. 0.00.............. 0.00%
50.00................. 60.00............ 13.60%
55.00................. 60.00............ 13.60%
60.00................. 60.00............ 13.60%
65.00................. 60.00............ 13.60%
70.00................. 60.00............ 13.60%
 
INTC:

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...ays-morgan-stanley/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/12/09/where-is-intel-going-in-2014.aspx

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12142759/1/if-only-intel-didnt-date-losers.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=INTC+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=INTC&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
with INTC at 24.93
Jan '15 30/35 bear call spread for a net credit of $43
Yield = 43/457 = 9.4% in 403 days or 8.5% annualized
(INTC pays 3.9% ann dividend)
Prob = 83%
Expectation = .83(43) - .04(457) - .13(228) = 35.7 - 18.3 - 29.8 = -12.4


Price..............Profit / Loss........%
22.50 ...............43.00 ..........8.50%
25.00 ...............43.00 ..........8.50%
27.50 ...............43.00 ..........8.50%
30.00 ...............43.00 ..........8.50%
30.43 .................0.00 ..........0.00%
33.63 .............(319.80) ......-63.96%
35.00 .............(457.00) ......-91.40%
37.50 .............(457.00) ......-91.40%
40.00 .............(457.00) ......-91.40%
 
TQNT:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/maggiem...rgets-triquint-for-takeover/?partner=yahootix

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/starboard-plans-proxy-fight-triquint-184341897.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/making-a-big-play-for-2014-right-now-2013-12-09?pagenumber=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=TQNT&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Trade:

Jan '15 7/5 bull put spread for a net credit of $50
Yield = 50/150 = 33% in 402 days or 30.3% annualized
Prob = 60%
Expectation = .6(50) - .12(150) - .28(75) = 30 - 18 - 21 = -9


Price..........Profit / Loss...............%
3.75 ............(150.00) ............-75.00%
5.00 ............(150.00) ............-75.00%
6.26 ..............(24.40) ............-12.20%
6.50 ..................0.00 ...............0.00%
7.00 .................50.00 .............33.00%
7.50 .................50.00 .............33.00%
8.00 .................50.00 .............33.00%
10.00 ...............50.00 .............33.00%
 
MRO:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101265899?__...headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=101265899|Cramer uncovers undervalue

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-sea-assets-increases-buyback.html?cmpid=yhoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/marathon-oil-beats-q3-earnings-165002054.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MRO+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MRO&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MRO&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
with MRO at 35.69
Apr '14 25/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $29
Yield = 29/471 = 6.16% in 128 days or 17.6% annualized
Prob = 89%
Expectation = .89(29) - .01(471) - .1(235) = 25.8 - 4.7 - 23.5 = -2


Price..........Profit / Loss.......... %
15.00 ...........(471.00) .......-94.20%
20.00 ...........(471.00) .......-94.20%
25.00 ...........(471.00) .......-94.20%
28.94 .............(77.20) .......-15.44%
29.71 ................0.00 ...........0.00%
30.00 ...............29.00 ..........6.16%
35.00 ...............29.00 ..........6.16%
40.00 ...............29.00 ..........6.16%
45.00 ...............29.00 ..........6.16%
 
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