Compare & Contrast with Christopher Lewis

[expiated]

What's the difference between using the "Fifteen-minute Interplay" chart configuration with USA Indices as opposed to using it with foreign currency pairs (Forex)?

There are only two that are really significant...

• The deviation level on the 15-minute price flow channel is 0.02% when trading Forex, but is 0.06% when trading indices.
• Entry and exit levels based on "local" reversals above and below the 15-minute and 30-minute price flow channels are recommended by the six-minute baseline on Forex charts, whereas this role is filled by the eight-minute price flow channel at 0.04% deviation on index charts.

After last week's activity, I would argue that using the "Fifteen-minute Interplay" chart to trade USA indices is probably not the best way to go, and that the eight-minute price flow channel at 0.04% deviation is too slow of a measure.

Moreover, I'm not sure if it would be better to monitor the 15-minute price flow channel at 0.06% deviation or to substitute it with the 20-minute channel instead. But in any case, rather than rely on the (lagging?) eight-minute measure, trading the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P demands (I now believe) reliance on the three-minute price flow envelope and the four-minute temporal support/resistance channel, entering positions when they are in sync with the slower (15- or 20-minute) measure(s) and exiting positions when they are not.

 

[expiated]

So then, to find pullbacks that ARE likely to end up being the high or low for the day on a daily basis, your best bet is it watch for candlesticks to tag the upper or lower band of the six-hour price range envelope at 0.18% deviation—whichever side happens to be on the contrarian half of a sloping 12-hour price range envelope.

Note that the above-referenced six-hour measure appears to replace the eight-hour envelope recommended in Post #895.

Though as just noted in Post #900, when currency pairs are trending sharply, anticipate that rates are likely to pull back only so far as the contrarian side of the "scratchy" black or the bold gray envelope(s).

 

[expiated]

Saturday, March 9, 2024
So... When are the best times to trade NADEX two-hour Forex binary options?

June 26, 2023
Let me record the intervals between the middle two strike prices at different times during the day to get a clearer picture of exactly what's going on with these numbers. At 8:45 PM PDT there's four pips difference between the strike prices and $26.75 between the payouts. (Of which currency pair?!)

June 27, 2023
At 7:25 AM, there is a still a four-pip difference between the strike prices, but now, the difference between the payouts is just $11.75. (Of which currency pair?!)

At 11:00 AM, the difference in payouts between the middle two strike prices halfway into a two-hour contract was $32.25. (Not good!)

The difference at the beginning of a two-hour contract was $23.50. (Which is still not all that great either.)

(So when, between 7 AM and 11 AM, did the "spread" begin increasing? I will have to check hour by hour, hopefully tomorrow.)

At 8:55 PM PDT the difference between the payouts for a two-hour EURUSD contract that is halfway to expiry is a whopping $40.44! The difference at the beginning of a two-hour contract at 9:00 PM is $27.75.

(I know the difference is only about $12 at 7:30 in the morning, so what I need to find out is just how early this more the 50% decrease takes place.)

June 28, 2023
At 1:30 AM PDT the difference 30 minutes into a two-hour contract has dropped down from 28 bucks (at 9 PM) to $15.75.

15 minutes into the 5 AM EURUSD two-hour binary option contract, the difference between the middle two payouts is back down to $12, which seems to be about the minimum. So was it there at 4 AM or even earlier? And when does it start going back up to $15 and higher?

At 7:30 AM the gap = $10.25

At 9:30 AM the gap = $20.75

15 minutes into the 10 PM PDT EURUSD two-hour binary option contract sees a $16 payout gap between the middle two strike prices.

June 29, 2023
Five minutes into the 5 AM PDT EURUSD two-hour binary option contract, the gap between the payouts for the two middle strike prices is just $7.50. This is the lowest I've seen it thus far. So, what was it at 4 AM, and where will it be at 6 AM?

Five minutes into the 6 AM two-hour contract, the gap has increased to $8.75.

The difference between the strike prices at 7:20 AM today is $10.75 as opposed to $11.75 yesterday. Though I suspect that yesterday I might have been looking at the second half of a two-hour binary option contract, whereas now, I am only making comparisons between the first half of two-hour binary option contracts.

I will now begin filling out the spread sheet I said (yesterday) that I would get started on...

It appears I am never awake at midnight nor at 4 AM in the morning. But, to the point, it looks like I should (ideally) limit my trading of Nadex binary options (if I opt to trade them at all) to doing so from 10 PM at night to 8 AM in the morning, with the best two hours coming at 5 AM and 6 AM.

...and possibly at 4 AM, depending on what goes on at that hour, which is still a mystery to me, since I'm always asleep at that time.

The gap at 4 AM today was only $5.00. So then, for now at least, I gather the ideal time to trade Nadex two-hour binary options is between the hours of 4 AM and 7 AM, at four o'clock, five o'clock and six o'clock.

Okay, looking back to last year...in review...probably the only times I should be looking to trade NADEX two-hour Forex binary options is between the hours from 10 PM at night to 9 AM in the morning PST, with the best hours being those of 4 AM, 5 AM and 6 AM, though 7 AM and 8 AM are not far behind.

 

[expiated]

I think this "bare essential" chart configuration probably represents the most profitable approach to trading the NPP system so that you are virtually guaranteed to enjoy successful outcomes on almost every trade, and to do so multiple times a day (provided you're trading a number of different assets...)

You are looking for opportunities to enter long positions whenever the upper band of the orchid envelope overlaps or ventures to the outside of the corresponding band of the (sloping) indigo envelope; and short positions whenever the lower band of the orchid envelope overlaps or ventures to the outside of the corresponding band of the (sloping) indigo envelope.

As illustrated, entries are ideally made in the vicinity of the contrarian band/side of the blackish "foggy" channel in the middle.

 

[expiated]

How does the above compare with the "bare essentials" approach illustrated in Post #904?

One has nothing to do with the other. The bare essentials configuration has to do with time frames upwards of 16-hours. The basic principles methodology is concerned with time frames that are no greater than two hours. I will say however that the latter will suggest many, many more trade opportunities during the day than the former.

(In fact, I just checked, and the statement that the bare essentials approach will "offer multiple trade opportunities each day provided one is trading a number of different financial assets" turns out not to be true.)

 

[expiated]

 

[expiated]

 

[expiated]

 

[expiated]

 

[expiated]

THURSDAY | JUNE 13, 2024 | 8:30 AM PST

When you get back to your office this morning, code an indicator for the following "wait for the pullback before you enter a position" tactic for trading gold...

The following (see below) is the "5-Minute How to Trade Forex" alert indicator I just coded earlier this morning—which stems in part from the work I've done over the last two or three months to develop forecast models for gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas. It looks to be good for trades lasting from 15-minutes to an hour in "choppy" markets (as is the case below), and much longer in trending markets.

Since, under choppy conditions, the trades will last for a relatively short period of time, your stake per trade will have to be somewhat high to realize what you would deem worthwhile returns. However, if the success rate is high enough, this should not constitute a very risky proposition...