Compare & Contrast with Christopher Lewis

[expiated]

This is an adaptive/dynamic 8½-hour price range envelope. It is approximated by the 8½-hour simple moving average envelope at 0.45% deviation.

And it REPLACES the red-violet moving average envelope at 0.25% deviation.

On a different note... I'm going to refer to the (pink) region for scalping short positions as the "selling tier," the (yellow-green) zone for scalping long positions as the "buying tier," and the area that falls in between as the "central tier." (These are 24- to 30-hour [one-day/daily] measures.)

The above daily measures are NOT the pink and yellow green regions, which are, as previously stated in Post #698, approximated by the two-hour price range channels at 0.18% and 0.07% deviation. So then, they are NOT scalping levels, but are more akin to pseudo swing trading measures. I am therefore going to refer to them as the (daily) buy zone, (daily) sell zone, and (daily) central zone.

I will refer to the PINK region as the upper tier, and the YELLOW-GREEN region as the lower tier. The area between the two shall remain unnamed given that I do not anticipate having to ever refer to it.

So, here's the modified plan...

1. Enter short positions at the zenith of pullbacks that climb into the daily sell zone when the 24-hour price flow is bearish, and enter long positions at the nadir of pullbacks that plunge into the daily buy zone when the 24-hour price flow is bullish. (Such trades will have an extremely high probability of leading to profitable outcomes.)
2. If the pullback is not that radical, enter short positions at the zenith of pullbacks that climb above a downward sloping (green) 24-hour baseline, and enter long positions at the nadir of pullbacks that crawl below an upward sloping (green) 24-hour baseline.
3. You can also enter short positions when candlesticks have crossed above a down-sloping purple (8½-hour) baseline, and enter long positions when candles have ventured below an upward sloping purple (8½-hour) baseline.
4. If the 24-hour measures are bearish, look to sell following reversals at or above the upper band of the associated (adaptable/dynamic) 8½-hour price range channel; and look to buy following reversals at or below the lower band of the associated (adaptable/dynamic) 8½-hour price range channel if the 24-hour measures are bullish.
5. And finally, enter short positions when price enters the pink "scalping zone" of a neutral or down-sloping two-hour upper tier, and enter long positions when price enters the yellow-green "scalping zone" of a neutral or upward sloping two-hour lower tier.
6. (By the way, on lower time frame charts, the "far side" of the 34-minute price flow channel at 0.06% deviation serves as an additional "launch site" from which "scalping trades" might be entered.)

 

[expiated]

The above SEEMS like it should provide your with a wealth of trading opportunities, but in point of fact, MOST of your time will be spent WAITING!

Also, you CANNOT make any kind of forecast in advance OTHER than to delineate your plan of action as outlined above. The market is just too dynamic for that. You will know what to do if and when you see a given scenario, but WHEN this or that particular set of conditions will manifest is NOT within your power to predict whenever implementing this style of trading.

All that notwithstanding, as of Friday's close, EURJPY was priced above a bearish 24-hour baseline, suggesting the rate will more than likely drop within a day or so; with the probability of selling leading to profits increasing if the pair continues to climb up into the daily sell zone just above its last recorded position, which ALSO happens to coincide with the top band of the dynamic/adaptable 8½-hour price range envelope (i.e., this pair is a strong buy candidate as soon as the intraday trajectory turns south).

 

[expiated]

EURJPY was priced above a bearish 24-hour baseline, suggesting the rate will more than likely drop within a day or so.

However, in drilling down using lower time frame charts, it becomes apparent that at the moment the market closed on Friday, price was positioned at the bottom of an upward sloping 34-minute price flow envelope, making the most likely next move at THAT time a short trip north, from 158.04 to probably around 158.20 for a 16-pip gain.

 

[expiated]

However, in drilling down using lower time frame charts, it becomes apparent that at the moment the market closed on Friday, price was positioned at the bottom of an upward sloping 34-minute price flow envelope, making the most likely next move at THAT time a short trip north, from 158.04 to probably around 158.20 for a 16-pip gain.

As it turns out, EURJPY only made it to about 158.16 for a mere 11- or 12-pip gain... max.

(Where it goes now remains to be seen, but it will increase its attractiveness as a potential sell candidate if it manages to reach or climb above 158.44.)

 

[expiated]

EURJPY has hit its original take-profit target and the two-hour measures remain bullish. My forecast model currently calculates the next resistance level at 158.48.

USDJPY has seen its two-day measures turn a tad bit bullish with the present climb, but basically, the pair has gone nowhere in the past seven days, so that I regard it as effectively neutral. My charts therefore suggest significant resistance within the region between 146.74 to 147.21.

 

[expiated]

My forecast model currently calculates the next resistance level at 158.48.

From and intraday perspective EURJPY continues with its bullish maneuvers and bias (though upward progress is slowing somewhat) with my last two resistance levels plotted at 158.93 and 159.50.

 

[expiated]

And finally, enter short positions when price enters the pink "scalping zone" of a neutral or down-sloping two-hour upper tier, and enter long positions when price enters the yellow-green "scalping zone" of a neutral or upward sloping two-hour lower tier.

THIS is the setup that offers the greatest number of trade opportunities, with entry and exit levels not only suggested by the pink and yellow-green "scalping zones," but also by the upper and lower bands of the 34-minute price flow channel at 0.06% deviation.

 

[expiated]

From and intraday perspective EURJPY continues with its bullish maneuvers and bias (though upward progress is slowing somewhat) with my last two resistance levels plotted at 158.93 and 159.50.

The "trigger" for WHEN to short EURJPY will be WHEN THE TWO-HOUR PRICE FLOW TURNS SOUTH!

 

[expiated]

Also, you CANNOT make any kind of forecast in advance OTHER than to delineate your plan of action as outlined above. The market is just too dynamic for that. You will know what to do if and when you see a given scenario, but WHEN this or that particular set of conditions will manifest is NOT within your power to predict whenever implementing this style of trading.

Today I conceptualized an alternative forecast model that DOES predict a specific plan of action for the future, which shall remain secret because, if it actually does work, I would prefer to be the only person on the planet who even has an inkling as to what the heck my methodology might be. But that's what I need to know... will the theory actually pan out if and when applied to ongoing market conditions in real time?

The following should help me make that decision...

AUDJPY: Buy it if the rate bounces off support at or below 93.83.
AUDUSD: The pair looks confused. Leave it be for the time being.
EURGBP: Buy it if it bounces off support at or below 0.8575.
EURJPY: The pair looks confused. Leave it be for the time being.
EURUSD: At 1.0831, this pair is already a sell candidate. Short the asset as soon as the two-hour price flow transitions from bullish to bearish. Ditto for GBPJPY and GBPUSD.
USDCAD: Buy it if it bounces off support at or below 1.3569.
USDCHF: Buy it if it bounces off support at or below 0.8817
USDJPY: Buy it if it bounces off support at or below 146.26

 

[expiated]

EURUSD: At 1.0831, this pair is already a sell candidate. Short the asset as soon as the two-hour price flow transitions from bullish to bearish. Ditto for GBPJPY and GBPUSD.

EURUSD and GBPUSD turned south and followed through, but GBPJPY ... not so much ... at least not yet. I also entered a USDJPY long position based on the same strategic forecast model mentioned in the previous post. Like EURUSD and GBPUSD, it has ultimately headed in the direction anticipated...

Though three of these four trades have worked out well, the thing that GBPJPY makes clear is that it is very important to enter positions FROM THE BACK SIDE OF THE THE 34-MINUTE PRICE FLOW ENVELOPE AND/OR THE 60-MINUTE TEMPORAL SUPPORT/RESISTANCE CHANNEL.