I have three (moderate, intermediate and extreme) 16-hour support levels on one of my daily chart configurations. On Thursday and Friday, AUDUSD climbed above, but then closed below, the extreme (bottom) level at 0.6402. However, so far today's daily candlestick is green (at 0.6414). If it is still green at the close, it will be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of days, given that a number of pairs are arguably structured for potential extended bullish runs, including this one.
Compare & Contrast with Christopher Lewis
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AUDJPY has been at or below 93.23 at least six times since climbing above it back on June 7, 2023. However, it has never opened AND closed a daily candlestick below this level. Seeing as how today's candle would have a hard time painting itself red at this point, might this pair spend at least a week or so heading north, even though the five-day price flow is bearish—especially since the trajectory of the eight-hour price range envelope has just reversed from southbound to northbound? (The 16- and 30-day price flows have remained bullish since June.)
Who has "room to rock" from a monthly perspective?
AUDJPY has had an overall bullish flow for three or four months now, but painted red monthly candlesticks during July and August (with 10 days left to go this month) leaving plenty of room to climb.
AUDUSD has painted a long red candle this month, with the overall flow more-or-less neutral, so that it too has plenty of room for climbing. (Plus, this pair has bounced three times from this general neighborhood in the last 15 years.)
EURUSD is slightly bullish, but has painted a red candlestick (so far) this month. Still, here's something to keep in mind...
GBPUSD is decidedly bullish, but has also painted a red candle (so far) this month. But here too, there's something I don't want to ignore...
USDCAD has a bearish overall price flow, but has painted a long green candle so far this month.
USDCHF is also overall bearish, yet has painted a little (short) green monthly candle. On the other hand, if the last 20 years are any indication, the US dollar-Swiss franc prefers NOT to be down in this neighborhood.
AUDJPY has had an overall bullish flow for three or four months now, but painted red monthly candlesticks during July and August (with 10 days left to go this month) leaving plenty of room to climb.
AUDUSD has painted a long red candle this month, with the overall flow more-or-less neutral, so that it too has plenty of room for climbing. (Plus, this pair has bounced three times from this general neighborhood in the last 15 years.)
EURUSD is slightly bullish, but has painted a red candlestick (so far) this month. Still, here's something to keep in mind...
GBPUSD is decidedly bullish, but has also painted a red candle (so far) this month. But here too, there's something I don't want to ignore...
USDCAD has a bearish overall price flow, but has painted a long green candle so far this month.
USDCHF is also overall bearish, yet has painted a little (short) green monthly candle. On the other hand, if the last 20 years are any indication, the US dollar-Swiss franc prefers NOT to be down in this neighborhood.
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What do you thing the one-hour charts recommend?
USDJPY is looking at a bullish eight-hour price flow and a neutral 16-hour price flow. So, I would wait for price to pull back to around 145.77 (if it ever does) and buy then.
AUDJPY is looking at a neutral 16-hour price flow, plus that rate is currently already in the upper half of the eight-hour price range. Consequently, I would not be looking to buy this pair until the 16-hour measure begins climbing again. (It began falling last Thursday.) Or, at least wait for the rate to pull back to around 93.42.
Ditto for AUDUSD...wait for the 16-hour measures to begin climbing again.
EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and USDCHF are climbing over all, if only slightly, but especially USDCHF. Honestly though, none of the currency pairs are evidencing a "serious" trend at the moment.
On the other hand, from the perspective of the "one day flow" configuration, AUDJPY, EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD and USDJPY have all taken off, with all but AUDJPY and EURUSD looking to be pulling the two-day price flow north with them.
By the way, USDCHF will soon hit the four-day temporal support level if it drops to 0.8760 (according to the "four-hour limits" setup) with EURJPY presently struggling/battling against four-day temporal resistance.
USDJPY is looking at a bullish eight-hour price flow and a neutral 16-hour price flow. So, I would wait for price to pull back to around 145.77 (if it ever does) and buy then.
AUDJPY is looking at a neutral 16-hour price flow, plus that rate is currently already in the upper half of the eight-hour price range. Consequently, I would not be looking to buy this pair until the 16-hour measure begins climbing again. (It began falling last Thursday.) Or, at least wait for the rate to pull back to around 93.42.
Ditto for AUDUSD...wait for the 16-hour measures to begin climbing again.
EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and USDCHF are climbing over all, if only slightly, but especially USDCHF. Honestly though, none of the currency pairs are evidencing a "serious" trend at the moment.
On the other hand, from the perspective of the "one day flow" configuration, AUDJPY, EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD and USDJPY have all taken off, with all but AUDJPY and EURUSD looking to be pulling the two-day price flow north with them.
By the way, USDCHF will soon hit the four-day temporal support level if it drops to 0.8760 (according to the "four-hour limits" setup) with EURJPY presently struggling/battling against four-day temporal resistance.
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PASSING THE TRADIAC FUNDED TRADER CHALLENGE
So...after six years of "research," I have concluded that the most profitable way for me personally to meet the Tradiac funded trader challenge (given their particular set of rules) is to look for three given trade setups as described below.
The first is to enter short positions at the zenith of pullbacks at or above a down-sloping red baseline, and to enter long positions at the nadir of pullbacks at or below an upward-sloping red baseline:
The second is to enter short positions when candlesticks have crossed over to the top half of a down-sloping red violet price flow envelope, and enter long positions when candles have ventured into the bottom half of an upward sloping red violet price flow envelope:
And finally, the last scenario is to enter short positions when price enters the pink "scalping zone" of a neutral or down-sloping proprietary E&E ("entries and exits") indicator, and enter long positions when price enters the yellow-green "scalping zone" of a neutral or upward sloping E&E indicator:
For this tactic, it is crucial that one plots the indicators on and trades via a much lower time-frame chart (due to the detail and precision required for this style of trading).
So...after six years of "research," I have concluded that the most profitable way for me personally to meet the Tradiac funded trader challenge (given their particular set of rules) is to look for three given trade setups as described below.
The first is to enter short positions at the zenith of pullbacks at or above a down-sloping red baseline, and to enter long positions at the nadir of pullbacks at or below an upward-sloping red baseline:
The second is to enter short positions when candlesticks have crossed over to the top half of a down-sloping red violet price flow envelope, and enter long positions when candles have ventured into the bottom half of an upward sloping red violet price flow envelope:
And finally, the last scenario is to enter short positions when price enters the pink "scalping zone" of a neutral or down-sloping proprietary E&E ("entries and exits") indicator, and enter long positions when price enters the yellow-green "scalping zone" of a neutral or upward sloping E&E indicator:
For this tactic, it is crucial that one plots the indicators on and trades via a much lower time-frame chart (due to the detail and precision required for this style of trading).
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As I noted on Monday, if the last 20 years are any indication, the US dollar-Swiss franc prefers NOT to be down in this neighborhood, and the August candle remains green. However, its monthly price flow has yet to transition from bearish to bullish, so it's uncertain as to whether September will paint a green candle as well. (If the pair remains true to form, seeing as how it has not produced two consecutive green candles since October of last year, one would expect September's candle to be red.)
EURUSD is looking at a red monthly candlestick, and the pair has not painted two consecutive red candles since September of 2022. This suggests the Euro-US dollar will be higher by the end of next month. On the other hand, the rate's bullish momentum has been slowing ever since February of this year, to the point that the monthly bias is now almost neutral. So, who knows? (GBPUSD is in the exact same situation, except that it's rate of ascent has remained the same since slowing in February.)
AUDJPY has a bullish overall monthly price flow, yet July and August were both red. So, will September be green? (And has the rate already bounced off the top of the monthly support zone, which my forecast model calculated at between 92.66 down to 90.74?)
I will have to wait until September 4th to see where my charts place the new monthly support levels. Nonetheless, they are currently plotted at 0.6433 and 0.6386, with price presently positioned between the two. Consequently, for now at least, I have to conclude that there is a greater statistical likelihood of the Aussie-US dollar ending September higher rather than lower than where it is now.
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AUDJPY has not produced two consecutive green weekly candlesticks since the week of June 11th. This suggests that the rate will come down next week, and would especially recommended looking for selling opportunities should price climb back up above the 94.28 level. (On the other hand, the pair HAS been range bound for about the last four weeks—but this also suggests price will come down next week, even though the overall trajectory has not been negative for a spell.)
Again, AUDUSD is already at the monthly support level.
EURUSD remains very bearish from a weekly perspective, with the low end of weekly support presently projected to be at 1.0685 (and monthly support down at 1.0538 and 1.0441). In other words, I won't be "seriously" anticipating it turning north until it drops another 108 or so pips. (Again, GBPUSD is in a very similar situation.)
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I have concluded that the most profitable way for me personally to meet the Tradiac funded trader challenge (given their designated set of rules) is to look for the particular trade setups described below.
- Enter short positions at the zenith of pullbacks at or above a down-sloping red (two-day) baseline, and enter long positions at the nadir of pullbacks at or below an upward-sloping red (two-day) baseline.
- Enter short positions when candlesticks have crossed over to the top half of a down-sloping red violet (eight-hour) price flow envelope, and enter long positions when candles have ventured into the bottom half of an upward sloping red violet (eight-hour) price flow envelope.
- Enter short positions when price enters the pink "scalping zone" of a neutral or down-sloping proprietary E&E ("entries and exits") indicator, and enter long positions when price enters the yellow-green "scalping zone" of a neutral or upward sloping E&E indicator. (After transferring these measures to lower time frame charts, I now see that these zones are approximated by the two-hour price range channels at 0.18% and 0.07% deviation.)
- On lower time frame charts, the "far side" of the 34-minute price flow channel at 0.06% deviation serves as an additional "launch site" from which "scalping trades" might be entered.
Using the above observations to trade strategically using one-hour charts, since you are (arguably) entering positions based more so on the positional relationship of price to the two-day baseline than on the baseline's trajectory, use the one-day measure instead, given that, for this strategy, the two-day moving average is evidencing an excessive amount of lag. Also, incorporate the use of the proprietary indicator pictured below in that it tracks the limits of price flow (intraday price ranges) more closely and much more accurately than any of the other (standard) indicators...
This is an adaptive/dynamic 8½-hour price range envelope. It is approximated by the 8½-hour simple moving average envelope at 0.45% deviation.
On a different note... I'm going to refer to the (pink) region for scalping short positions as the "selling tier," the (yellow-green) zone for scalping long positions as the "buying tier," and the area that falls in between as the "central tier." (These are 24- to 30-hour [one-day/daily] measures.)
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