Everything about this pair is now bullish (at the intraday level) so it becomes a buy candidate anywhere between 0.9148 down to 0.9118 (if the slower measures don't turn south).
Compare & Contrast with Christopher Lewis
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I have no idea what I was looking at yesterday when I typed this. I see nothing on any of my charts that agrees with this. (The post that came before it, saying the pair was neutral and NOT a good trade candidate, from what I can see now, never changed.)
I just checked AUDJPY which was supposed to go lower, but that changed. So again, the market is too dynamic for swing trading (in my opinion). It is therefore better (for me) to go with the day-to-day trend, which indicated price should have eventually climbed higher (as it did) and wait for it to finally get around to doing so (if making longer-term forecasts) if it happens to take a turn in the opposite direction for a day or two.
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I purchased a new laptop, but have not yet had the opportunity to totally reconcile the charts I transferred there to the most recent configurations saved on my old one.
Since the charts I used to trade this morning were only reflections of the ones I used when posting Entries No. 494, 496 and 497 (based on memory), I want to compare the protocols they suggested (to me) with the guidelines I typed previously to see where they match (if at all), where they differ, and which seems to offer the best instructions in those instances were they are not identical.
INSTRUCTIONS FOR THIS MORNING’S CHARTS:
Since the charts I used to trade this morning were only reflections of the ones I used when posting Entries No. 494, 496 and 497 (based on memory), I want to compare the protocols they suggested (to me) with the guidelines I typed previously to see where they match (if at all), where they differ, and which seems to offer the best instructions in those instances were they are not identical.
INSTRUCTIONS FOR THIS MORNING’S CHARTS:
- Enter longer-term positions from the far/wrong/off side of a sloping two-hour baseline.
- Enter intermediate-term positions from the far/wrong/off side of a sloping 43-minute baseline.
- Enter shorter-term positions from the middle/center (or the far, wrong or off side) of a sloping 20-minute price range envelope as candlesticks bounce off the far side of the four-minute price range envelope at 0.03% deviation (on a one-minute chart).
- (But, do so IF AND ONLY IF the 20-mintue channel is sloping! If it is neutral, DON’T trade! Remain on the sidelines.)
- As candles bounce off the far side of the four-minute price range envelop (on a one-minute chart) they are likely to cross over the 6-minute baseline (still headed in the “wrong” direction) in the process.
- As a matter of fact, for the five-minute price flow, look at the positional relationship of the bold black six-minute baseline to the white 13-minute baseline; and also, check to see if it is riding on the back of the upper or lower band of the blue and red 10-minute adaptive price range envelope (on five-minute charts).
- (Note however that if it is between the two, then five-minute price flow is neutral.)
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COMPARE & CONTRAST:
Enter longer-term positions from the far/wrong/off side of a sloping two-hour baseline.
This remains.
Previous instructions were to look to trade in in the direction of the slope of the 43-minute and 30-minute baseline. However, if you're gong to do this, enter positions when price comes out of pullbacks behind the 43-minute baseline—instructions that were NOT provided in the previous post! Also, this now becomes an intermediate-term trade.
Enter intermediate-term positions from the far/wrong/off side of a sloping 43-minute baseline.
Yes, that's what I just typed.
Enter shorter-term positions from the middle/center (or the far, wrong or off side) of a sloping 20-minute price range envelope as candlesticks bounce off the far side of the four-minute price range envelope at 0.03% deviation (on a one-minute chart).
No, I disagree with this! On a five-minute chart, you do so as the six-minute baseline crosses the 13-minute baseline. Follow this same guideline on one-minute charts as well!
The other directions said to look for reversals of the upper or lower band of the16-minute price range envelop at 0.08% deviation during less volatile periods, and off the upper or lower band of the 43-minute price range envelope at 0.17% deviation when liquidity and volatility are high. So, plot these two envelopes on your new charts (if they're not already there) and evaluate just exactly what's going on here...
No, you have the 20-minute envelope at 0.07% and the 30-minute envelope at 0.18% deviation, which essentially serve the exact same function.
(But, do so IF AND ONLY IF the 20-mintue channel is sloping! If it is neutral, DON’T trade! Remain on the sidelines.)
As candles bounce off the far side of the four-minute price range envelop (on a one-minute chart) they are likely to cross over the 6-minute baseline (still headed in the "wrong" direction) in the process.
As a matter of fact, for the five-minute price flow, look at the slope of the white 13-minute baseline AND the positional relationship of the bold black six-minute baseline to the white 13-minute baseline; and also, check to see if the bold black indicator is riding on the back of the upper or lower band of the blue and red 10-minute adaptive price range envelope (on five-minute charts). This is related to the bold red text above.
(Note however that if the bold black six-minute baseline is between the two bands of the 10-minute envelope, then five-minute price flow is neutral.)
Enter longer-term positions from the far/wrong/off side of a sloping two-hour baseline.
This remains.
Previous instructions were to look to trade in in the direction of the slope of the 43-minute and 30-minute baseline. However, if you're gong to do this, enter positions when price comes out of pullbacks behind the 43-minute baseline—instructions that were NOT provided in the previous post! Also, this now becomes an intermediate-term trade.
Enter intermediate-term positions from the far/wrong/off side of a sloping 43-minute baseline.
Yes, that's what I just typed.
Enter shorter-term positions from the middle/center (or the far, wrong or off side) of a sloping 20-minute price range envelope as candlesticks bounce off the far side of the four-minute price range envelope at 0.03% deviation (on a one-minute chart).
No, I disagree with this! On a five-minute chart, you do so as the six-minute baseline crosses the 13-minute baseline. Follow this same guideline on one-minute charts as well!
The other directions said to look for reversals of the upper or lower band of the16-minute price range envelop at 0.08% deviation during less volatile periods, and off the upper or lower band of the 43-minute price range envelope at 0.17% deviation when liquidity and volatility are high. So, plot these two envelopes on your new charts (if they're not already there) and evaluate just exactly what's going on here...
No, you have the 20-minute envelope at 0.07% and the 30-minute envelope at 0.18% deviation, which essentially serve the exact same function.
(But, do so IF AND ONLY IF the 20-mintue channel is sloping! If it is neutral, DON’T trade! Remain on the sidelines.)
As candles bounce off the far side of the four-minute price range envelop (on a one-minute chart) they are likely to cross over the 6-minute baseline (still headed in the "wrong" direction) in the process.
As a matter of fact, for the five-minute price flow, look at the slope of the white 13-minute baseline AND the positional relationship of the bold black six-minute baseline to the white 13-minute baseline; and also, check to see if the bold black indicator is riding on the back of the upper or lower band of the blue and red 10-minute adaptive price range envelope (on five-minute charts). This is related to the bold red text above.
(Note however that if the bold black six-minute baseline is between the two bands of the 10-minute envelope, then five-minute price flow is neutral.)
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So, having begun formal operations with my partner in India (on a trial basis) I am finding that, though he suggested he spends almost as much time trading as I do, in actuality, he spends almost no time trading (on his own) at all. Consequently, I doubt we will continue to collaborate after this week. But, for the time being at least, most of my thoughts are being shared via a private platform between the two of us. Nonetheless, there ARE a couple of things I want to note where I am more likely to run across them again, hence the following entry...
Having begun official operations as a practitioner of Numerical Price Projection (NPP), here is what (I think) are my ultimate views:
I used to debate whether the 20-, 30- or 40-minute baseline should be the primary arbiter of my decisions at the day trading level, but in fact, it is none of those. Rather, it is the 13-minute baseline.
The other three measures mentioned above ARE important however, but as PRICE RANGE ENVELOPES and NOT as baselines. Together, they convey the gist of where price is headed at the intraday level, or the directional tendency of price action, if you will.
Moreover, these channels, at the proper deviation levels, constitute the levels at which the "immediate" trend will, more often than not, elect to reverse direction. By immediate trend I am referring to the five-minute to 15-minute flow of price.
These reversals are best conveyed on a five-minute chart using the six-minute baseline and the ten-minute dynamic price range envelope, with the first indicator "riding" the upper band of the second when the immediate trend is bullish, or riding the lower band when the immediate trend is bearish.
(When the trend is neutral, the six-minute baseline will embark on a more-or-less sideways, or horizontal course between the two bands.)
Even so, one should probably be looking to enter short positions ONLY when when the 13-minute baseline is sloping downward, long positions ONLY when the 13-minute baseline is sloping upwards, and to remain on the sidelines when the 13-minute baseline is neutral. Also, the best time to enter positions is when the slope of the 13-minute baseline matches the slope of the three consensus price range envelopes mentioned above.
Having begun official operations as a practitioner of Numerical Price Projection (NPP), here is what (I think) are my ultimate views:
I used to debate whether the 20-, 30- or 40-minute baseline should be the primary arbiter of my decisions at the day trading level, but in fact, it is none of those. Rather, it is the 13-minute baseline.
The other three measures mentioned above ARE important however, but as PRICE RANGE ENVELOPES and NOT as baselines. Together, they convey the gist of where price is headed at the intraday level, or the directional tendency of price action, if you will.
Moreover, these channels, at the proper deviation levels, constitute the levels at which the "immediate" trend will, more often than not, elect to reverse direction. By immediate trend I am referring to the five-minute to 15-minute flow of price.
These reversals are best conveyed on a five-minute chart using the six-minute baseline and the ten-minute dynamic price range envelope, with the first indicator "riding" the upper band of the second when the immediate trend is bullish, or riding the lower band when the immediate trend is bearish.
(When the trend is neutral, the six-minute baseline will embark on a more-or-less sideways, or horizontal course between the two bands.)
Even so, one should probably be looking to enter short positions ONLY when when the 13-minute baseline is sloping downward, long positions ONLY when the 13-minute baseline is sloping upwards, and to remain on the sidelines when the 13-minute baseline is neutral. Also, the best time to enter positions is when the slope of the 13-minute baseline matches the slope of the three consensus price range envelopes mentioned above.
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At one time I considered the use of the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA)...
...which is a technical indicator that identifies changing trends, breakouts, and trading opportunities in the price of an asset by combining two groups of moving averages (MA) with different time periods.
The GMMA consists of a short-term group of MAs and a long-term group of MAs, both containing six MAs, for a total of 12, and is overlaid on the price chart of an asset.
The short-term MAs are typically set at 3, 5, 8, 10, 12, and 15 periods. The longer-term MAs are typically set at 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, and 60.
When the short-term group of averages moves above the longer-term group, it indicates a price uptrend in the asset could be emerging.
Conversely, when the short-term group falls below the longer-term group of MAs, a price downtrend in the asset could be starting.
But, ideas I found more closely aligned to my way of thinking were the fanning moving averages and buy/sell zones described by Nick McDonald of Trade with Precision...
Nick's system involves the use of standard 10-, 20-, 50- and 200-period simple moving averages.
However, my version (when used for [intraday] day trading) makes use of TEMPORAL moving averages in the form of the 13-, 20-, 30- and 43-minute baselines...
...with traders entering a long position when the fan turns upward, and then reversing direction (entering a short position) when the fan turns downward.
...which is a technical indicator that identifies changing trends, breakouts, and trading opportunities in the price of an asset by combining two groups of moving averages (MA) with different time periods.
The GMMA consists of a short-term group of MAs and a long-term group of MAs, both containing six MAs, for a total of 12, and is overlaid on the price chart of an asset.
The short-term MAs are typically set at 3, 5, 8, 10, 12, and 15 periods. The longer-term MAs are typically set at 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, and 60.
When the short-term group of averages moves above the longer-term group, it indicates a price uptrend in the asset could be emerging.
Conversely, when the short-term group falls below the longer-term group of MAs, a price downtrend in the asset could be starting.
But, ideas I found more closely aligned to my way of thinking were the fanning moving averages and buy/sell zones described by Nick McDonald of Trade with Precision...
Nick's system involves the use of standard 10-, 20-, 50- and 200-period simple moving averages.
However, my version (when used for [intraday] day trading) makes use of TEMPORAL moving averages in the form of the 13-, 20-, 30- and 43-minute baselines...
...with traders entering a long position when the fan turns upward, and then reversing direction (entering a short position) when the fan turns downward.
The NPP Day Trading Manual (in brief)...
Copyright © 2023 by Fred Duckworth
Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) seeks to mirror the methodology of numerical weather prediction by gathering and evaluating precise, up-to-date, quantitative data and using it to calculate the odds of price reaching designated values within a given time period.
It does so by patterning the system's elements after the equations, wave functions and computer models used in weather forecasting. However, instead of monitoring wind velocity and direction, cloud formations, humidity, temperature and barometric pressure; it evaluates the synergy between such factors as typical price ranges, reoccurring chart patterns, horizontal support and resistance levels, trend lines and market structure, all in multiple time frames—with the result being graphical depictions of current market conditions that traders can then use to help make precise, well-timed trades.
It's all about interpreting what's happening in the moment based on market generated information (which is to say, technical analysis) to uncover the "signs of the times" or "ruling reason" that, if interpreted correctly, will result in market forecasts of unusual accuracy.
It's also meant to reflect flight dynamics, which uses the laws of physics to explain how forces act on vessels to govern their performance, stability and control to ultimately determine their velocity and attitude with respect to time.
So, in the same way pilots are aware that a Boeing 747 will lift off the ground by angling upward at two to three degrees per second with a maximum angle of 10 to 15 degrees; NPP enables retail traders to use the parameters dictating whether an asset is rising or falling to determine whether they should enter long or short positions (or remain on the sidelines) with respect to any given time frame.
Toward that end, I am listing the following anecdotal observations (rather than "Laws") to guide my own intraday decision-making process for the foreseeable future...
OBSERVATION I
From a DAY TRADING perspective, I want to "ultimately" be trading in the direction of the 30-minute baseline. This will usually (if not always) be in sync with the slope of the 20-minute price range envelop at 0.7% deviation, both of which are used to validate positions entered in the direction of the slope of the 13-minute price range envelope.
OBSERVATION II
Though, from a day trading perspective, I want to ultimately be trading in the direction of the 30-minute baseline, in terms of what might be deemed the "actionable" trend or price flow, I actually want to be trading in the direction of the slope of the 13-minute price range envelope (and its underlying baseline) at 0.06% deviation.
OBSERVATION III
One COULD argue that the six-minute trend (not four-minute, as was previously being used) constitutes the most precise actionable price flow. However, though it CAN be followed, the frequency of its fluctuations means that it typically does not adopt a given course for a significant period of time, so that it might often reverse direction BEFORE a profit is actually generated (i.e., before an asset can "cover the spread").
Consequently, it is better suited for suggesting entry and exit levels as dictated by the slope of the 13-minute measure, which is much more stable and generally maintains a given trajectory long enough to deliver profits on a regular basis.
OBSERVATION IV
Previously, this slot was reserved for defining the maximum hourly candlestick length on one- and five-minute charts. However, given that the 30-minute measure now serves as the backbone of NPP's intraday trading methodology... primary deviation will now be defined in terms of 30-minute price range envelopes, starting at 0.06% deviation during periods of low liquidity/volatility, and moving up to 0.12% and 0.18% when currency pairs are trending or experiencing heightened price action.
OBSERVATION V
The final guideline the last time this list was compiled stated that entering positions on the far side of a sloping two-hour baseline was considered to be one of the best trade setups. Although this is still true, it has been replaced by the 2⅔-hour price range envelope at 0.18%, 0.30% and 0.50% deviation; in conjunction with the 75- to 90-minute price range envelope at 0.14% deviation (as the NEW measure for pinpointing entry levels, rather than the far side of the slower envelope).
So then, though from an intraday/day trading perspective, the 30-minute baseline constitutes the immediate actionable trend, it is the two- to three-hour measure(s) that suggest, or convey the gist of, or directional tendency of, a given pair from hour to hour.
OBSERVATION VI
Also, if candlesticks do NOT reverse direction at the upper or lower band of the 75- to 90-minute price range envelope at 0.14% deviation, it is a strong indication that the intraday trend has probably just reversed direction.
Moreover, if price begins "riding" the upper or lower band of the 75- to 90-minute price range envelope at 0.14% deviation, chances are that the pair is trending with a tremendous amount of momentum supporting it.
OBSERVATION VII
Using NPP's proprietary "instantaneous" moving averages plotted on 15- and/or 30-minute charts in conjunction with a "miscolored" candlestick tactic or strategy has the (theoretical/hypothetical) potential to lead to a preponderance of successful/profitable trades when purchasing 15-minute binary option contracts via Deriv.com, which is the only overseas binary option outfit trusted by (but NOT endorsed by) this trader.
P.S. I don't recommend that ANYONE should trade binary options! (Even though I personally like them a lot.)
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OBSERVATION VIII
NPP uses "fanning" moving averages in a manner very similar to that taught by Trade with Precision, except that rather than use standard 10-, 20-, 50- and 200-period simple moving averages, NPP makes use of TEMPORAL moving averages in the form of the 13-, 20-, 30- and 43-minute baselines, with traders entering long positions when the "fan" turns upward, and then reversing direction (entering short positions) when the "fan" turns downward.
OBSERVATION IX
The 20-, 30- and 43-minute price range envelopes at their designated deviation settings constitute the levels at which the "immediate" trend will, more often than not, elect to reverse direction. (By immediate trend, I am referring to the four-minute to 15-minute flow of price.)
These reversals are best conveyed on a five-minute chart using the six-minute baseline and the ten-minute dynamic price range envelope, with the first indicator "riding" the upper band of the second when the immediate trend is bullish, or riding the lower band when the immediate trend is bearish.
(When the trend is neutral, the six-minute baseline will embark on a more-or-less sideways, or horizontal course between the two bands.)
Even so, one should probably be looking to enter short positions ONLY when when the 13-minute baseline is sloping downward, long positions ONLY when the 13-minute baseline is sloping upwards, and to remain on the sidelines when the 13-minute baseline is neutral. Also, the best time to enter positions is when the slope of the 13-minute baseline matches the slope of the three "consensus price range envelopes" (or the "threefold cord") mentioned above.
NPP uses "fanning" moving averages in a manner very similar to that taught by Trade with Precision, except that rather than use standard 10-, 20-, 50- and 200-period simple moving averages, NPP makes use of TEMPORAL moving averages in the form of the 13-, 20-, 30- and 43-minute baselines, with traders entering long positions when the "fan" turns upward, and then reversing direction (entering short positions) when the "fan" turns downward.
OBSERVATION IX
The 20-, 30- and 43-minute price range envelopes at their designated deviation settings constitute the levels at which the "immediate" trend will, more often than not, elect to reverse direction. (By immediate trend, I am referring to the four-minute to 15-minute flow of price.)
These reversals are best conveyed on a five-minute chart using the six-minute baseline and the ten-minute dynamic price range envelope, with the first indicator "riding" the upper band of the second when the immediate trend is bullish, or riding the lower band when the immediate trend is bearish.
(When the trend is neutral, the six-minute baseline will embark on a more-or-less sideways, or horizontal course between the two bands.)
Even so, one should probably be looking to enter short positions ONLY when when the 13-minute baseline is sloping downward, long positions ONLY when the 13-minute baseline is sloping upwards, and to remain on the sidelines when the 13-minute baseline is neutral. Also, the best time to enter positions is when the slope of the 13-minute baseline matches the slope of the three "consensus price range envelopes" (or the "threefold cord") mentioned above.
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