Look to be headed north...
AUDJPY
EURGBP
USDCAD
USDCHF
USDJPY
Look to be headed south...
AUDUSD
EURUSD
GBPJPY
GBPUSD
Look to be neutral at the moment...
EURJPY
Compare & Contrast with Christopher Lewis
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AUDJPY
EURGBP
USDCAD
USDCHF
USDJPY
Look to be headed south...
AUDUSD
EURUSD
GBPJPY
GBPUSD
Look to be neutral at the moment...
EURJPY
Be extremely cognizant of the possibility of rates reversing direction at the two-hour price range statistical support/resistance level (i.e., 0.40% deviation)!
DAILY ROUTINE (THUS FAR):
- Check the weekly charts ("weekly price range" configuration) to see if any of rate is above or below the projected weekly price range. (This does not mean that a reversal is imminent, but it might mean that a dramatic reversal could occur if stimulated by related economic data.)
- View the daily charts ("wrong half of the channel" configuration) to see if any of the currency pairs is evidencing a hook (reversal) at the top or bottom of the six-day or 12-day price range. (If the reversal follows through, it could mean several days of a committed/continued trend.)
- Refer to the daily charts ("projected day ranges" configuration) to see if any rates have climbed above or crawled below the projected daily price range AND to form an impression as to the direction in which each asset is currently headed from a day-to-day perspective. (It makes sense to be biased toward executing trades where the 90- and 120-minute baselines are headed in the same direction as the day-to-day trend. Obviously, positions should be entered in this same direction.
- View a chart setup where the configuration includes the eight-hour price range envelope and the two-hour price range envelope. The two-hour measure should make it crystal clear whether a given rate is climbing, falling or neutral. Should candlesticks be positioned/located on the "contrary" side of this measure when it and the eight-hour envelope are both angled in the same direction, entering as price reverses direction to resume a course aligned with the shared trajectory will almost inevitably lead to a profitable outcome. (This is especially relevant if the slope of these two measures matches the anticipated direction of the day-to-day trend for a given pair.)
- If you are optimizing your entries, you will always be executing your trades in the direction of the six-minute baseline, probably when it is reversing direction to realign itself with the slopes of the 90- and 120-minute moving averages. If this corresponds to the 20-minute baseline losing momentum (i.e., assuming a neutral posture on its way to reversing direction to rejoin the trajectory of the 90- and 120-minute baselines itself), it is often a winning proposition. So, doing so with caution and careful consideration is now permissible when deemed appropriate, even though the 20-minute measure has not yet confirmed the act. Additionally, if this corresponds with candlesticks rebounding off the "far/contrary" side of the 34-minute price range (envelope) at 0.14% to 0.24% deviation, usually well before being confirmed by the 20-minute baseline, it still tends to be a winning proposition and can therefore be done with caution and careful consideration when deemed appropriate.
- If candlestick cross over to the "wrong" side of a sloping eight-hour price range envelope, enter positions as the 20-minute baseline reverses course to resume a trajectory aligned with the direction of the eight-hour price flow. (If this turns out to result in "false positives," use the 34-minute baseline instead. Note that there is no rush to execute such trades, given that the eight-hour price range should provide you with plenty of room to reap a profit even if you get into the trade a bit slowly.)
- Compare what you are typing here with what you typed above and evaluate whether anything needs to be changed: You are probably going to maximize the likelihood that you trades will be successful IF you wait for candlesticks to make their way to the "wrong/off" side/band of the two-hour price range envelope at 0.40% deviation AND simultaneously arrive at or near the eight-hour temporal support/resistance level. You could enter positions as the six-minute baseline reverses direction, but it would be prudent to at least wait for confirmation from the 20-minute measure. And yet, the ideal scenario would be to wait for those scenarios where the six-, 20-, 34- and 60-minute baselines are all more-or-less reversing direction at the same time, fanning out in the manner describe by Nick McDonald of TradewithPrecision (except that he employs standard period moving averages rather than the temporal baselines you use; see the last comment below typed in bold black type).
- Re-evaluate: The "far/retreating/contrary" side of the 34-minute price range (envelope) at 0.14% to 0.24% deviation
- Re-evaluate: (Upper or lower band of the 10-minute price range envelope at 0.04% deviation)
- 24-minute temporal support or resistance level (eight hour is better)
- Two-hour temporal support or resistance level (eight hour is better in that you will trade less often, yet your returns will potentially be much more substantive)
- The "surge/advancing" side of the 34-minute price range (envelope) at 0.14% deviation
- When the six-minute baseline begins to hook back toward the entry level
- At the two-hour temporal support or resistance level
- At the upper or lower band of the 34-minute price range envelope at 0.14% deviation
- The most ambitions target would be the opposite side of the eight-hour temporal support/resistance channel
...AND the risk of rates backtracking (against you) will become virtually nonexistent.
Weekly Price Range
These pairs will exceed their projected maximum high for the week (as I calculate it) if and when they climb above the following...
USDCAD - 1.3124
USDCHF - 0.9696
USDJPY - 138.32
These pairs will breach their projected minimum low for the week (as I calculate it) once they crawl below the following...
AUDUSD - 0.6827
EURUSD - 0.9905
GBPUSD - 1.1689
EURGBP has been climbing overall on a weekly basis since July 31, 2022. But, this week's candlestick is presently red. If this does not change, and the pair maintains its overall bullish sentiment, it seems logical to expect its price to resume ascending next week, though time will tell.
My Impression of Where Pairs Are Headed on a Day-to-day Basis
The six-day price flow for AUDUSD is essentially neutral at the moment. By one set of measures, the pair is just slightly bearish (from a daily trend perspective). By a second set of measures, it is just barely bullish. Having almost reached the bottom of the six-day price range, it has plenty of room to climb IF it should go ahead and decide to follow through on turning north at this time, given that it would not encounter the six- and/or 12-day statistical resistance levels until somewhere up in the neighborhood of 0.7160.
These pairs will exceed their projected maximum high for the week (as I calculate it) if and when they climb above the following...
USDCAD - 1.3124
USDCHF - 0.9696
USDJPY - 138.32
These pairs will breach their projected minimum low for the week (as I calculate it) once they crawl below the following...
AUDUSD - 0.6827
EURUSD - 0.9905
GBPUSD - 1.1689
EURGBP has been climbing overall on a weekly basis since July 31, 2022. But, this week's candlestick is presently red. If this does not change, and the pair maintains its overall bullish sentiment, it seems logical to expect its price to resume ascending next week, though time will tell.
My Impression of Where Pairs Are Headed on a Day-to-day Basis
The six-day price flow for AUDUSD is essentially neutral at the moment. By one set of measures, the pair is just slightly bearish (from a daily trend perspective). By a second set of measures, it is just barely bullish. Having almost reached the bottom of the six-day price range, it has plenty of room to climb IF it should go ahead and decide to follow through on turning north at this time, given that it would not encounter the six- and/or 12-day statistical resistance levels until somewhere up in the neighborhood of 0.7160.
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On the other hand, if you look at a daily chart (the one-day two-week two-day measures configuration) what you see is that the 12-day trend has been bearish even since the beginning of July. So has the four-day price flow, except when it turned north six days ago. However, the daily trend is just about to cross below it (and the two-day measure is neutral).
To me, this hints at the strong possibility that the pair might be about to resume its bearish ways (which is the real overall sentiment), especially since it bounced off the twelve-day baseline (a statistical resistance level) two days ago. I would therefore argue that it is NOT so "logical to expect its price to resume ascending next week."
I went over all my charts today, deleting and combining, etc., as I saw fit. This final phase of the process of originating a system suggests to me that I now trade just one scenario exclusively (or three depending on how you look at it)...
Namely: pullbacks to the "far" side of the daily trend; whether they be to the two-hour price range (envelope) at 0.40% deviation, the 24-hour temporal support or resistance level, or the daily central tendency baseline.
I entered only one position last night, shorting EURUSD...
So then, as the image below records, it took approximately nine hours (I entered during the hour marked by the crosshairs) for the pair to finally move significantly in my favor.
The long red candlestick painted at 3:00 AM PST. (I have now entered a USDCHF long position.)
So then, as the image below records, it took approximately nine hours (I entered during the hour marked by the crosshairs) for the pair to finally move significantly in my favor.
The long red candlestick painted at 3:00 AM PST. (I have now entered a USDCHF long position.)
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AUDJPY
(Once trading resumes next week...)
AUDJPY’s monthly price flow is only slightly bullish. Even so, generally speaking, I would think one should be looking to buy this pair. However, at present, candlesticks are painting at Resistance Level I of the monthly price range. So then, what I would like to see is for the rate to drop down to where candles would be forming near several statistical support levels in the neighborhood of 91.63, making it possible for me to enter long positions just after the 24-hour, two-day and four-day baselines turn themselves upward again.
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AUDUSD is presently a convoluted mess. Nonetheless, based on what I view as the market version of the principle of subsidiarity, my best bet is probably to wait to see if I get a signal to buy this pair, because...
EURGBP is an even worse mess than AUDUSD. Why even bother with it? Except that if it continues to be range bound, as it has been for the past two or three weeks, at 0.8481, it would be a candidate for a short position.
EURJPY has gone nowhere all month. Yet, the monthly trend is just slightly bullish, and price continues to ride monthly Support Level I, so one would think it might eventually head higher.
EURUSD’s monthly price flow very bearish. So then, generally speaking, one would be looking to sell this pair. However, at present, candlesticks are painting below monthly Support Level I. So then, what I would like to see is for the rate to climb up to where candles would be forming above the monthly baseline, making it possible for me to enter a short position just after the 24-hour, two-day and four-day baselines turn themselves south again.
GBPJPY is essentially going nowhere fast.
If GBPUSD continues to be range bound, as it has been for the past five days, it would be a candidate for a long position.
USDCAD is gradually drifting upward, but in such a haphazard manner that it has been more-or-less residing in the same general region for over a year.
USDCHF looks to be on the cusp of rolling over.
USDJPY "needs" to pull back from its elevated level, but appears unwilling to do so.
- The day-to-day trend is presently bullish, and
- As of Friday's close, the rate was located at the bottom of the typical daily price range
EURGBP is an even worse mess than AUDUSD. Why even bother with it? Except that if it continues to be range bound, as it has been for the past two or three weeks, at 0.8481, it would be a candidate for a short position.
EURJPY has gone nowhere all month. Yet, the monthly trend is just slightly bullish, and price continues to ride monthly Support Level I, so one would think it might eventually head higher.
EURUSD’s monthly price flow very bearish. So then, generally speaking, one would be looking to sell this pair. However, at present, candlesticks are painting below monthly Support Level I. So then, what I would like to see is for the rate to climb up to where candles would be forming above the monthly baseline, making it possible for me to enter a short position just after the 24-hour, two-day and four-day baselines turn themselves south again.
GBPJPY is essentially going nowhere fast.
If GBPUSD continues to be range bound, as it has been for the past five days, it would be a candidate for a long position.
USDCAD is gradually drifting upward, but in such a haphazard manner that it has been more-or-less residing in the same general region for over a year.
USDCHF looks to be on the cusp of rolling over.
USDJPY "needs" to pull back from its elevated level, but appears unwilling to do so.
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