Compare & Contrast with Christopher Lewis

[expiated]

TESTING A THEORY

My modus operandi, the protocols I'm using to trade via the Numerical Price Prediction system, are only being tightened at this point. And having settled things in that regard and seeing as how I've already finished polishing off this week's "whittling," I found myself once again turning to the bigger picture.

Without going into details, I want to see if the following happens within four days or less...

Unless the pairs reverse their day-to-day sentiment/bias, I expect to see:

1. AUDUSD refuse to drop below 0.6643, or if it does... to bounce back in short order.
2. USDCAD crawl back down within four days if it climbs above 1.3408.
3. EURUSD refuse to drop below 1.0844, or if it does... to bounce back in short order.
   
4. USDCHF crawl back down within four days if it climbs above 0.8587.

I would expect to see pairs like USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURJPY come back down from where they are now within four days, except that they have been climbing for months! And they appear to be maneuvering possible initial steps toward renewing those treks north.

So then, I guess what I will do is look to SELL if their day-to-day trends DO turn south; but will look to BUY if USDJPY does not come back down below 143.08 within the next four days. Ditto for EURJPY with respect to the 156.67 mark, and 188.33 for GBPJPY.

 

[expiated]

I expect to see EURUSD refuse to drop below 1.0844, or if it does... to bounce back in short order.

If EURUSD has indeed initiated a fresh leg north, theoretically, you should be able to reap up to 128 pips of profit over the remainder of the week; and similar returns if GBPUSD continues heading north and USDCHF resumes heading south.

 

[expiated]

I expect to see AUDUSD refuse to drop below 0.6643, or if it does... to bounce back in short order.

The Aussie dollar-US dollar might be tipping its hand regarding a fresh jaunt to the north. I therefore look forward to entering a long position following the next pullback and hopefully hitching a ride for a hundred pips or more.

 

[expiated]

I would expect to see pairs like USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURJPY come back down from where they are now within four days, except that they have been climbing for months! And they appear to be maneuvering possible initial steps toward renewing those treks north.

It is the opinion of my system that USDJPY and a number of other pairs are evidencing a lack of agreement between the weekly and monthly numbers right now...

So, if I were a position trader I would pocket whatever gains I had realized at this point (if I hadn't already) and sit on the sidelines until this conflict of numbers is settled.

 

[expiated]

So, if I were a position trader, I would pocket whatever gains I had realized at this point (if I hadn't already) and sit on the sidelines until this conflict of numbers is settled.

Subsequent evaluation of my theory from Saturday suggests that the gist of daily price flow (on a four-hour chart) is conveyed by the roughly 2½-day trend/measures; and that it would be best to enter positions in the direction of the slope of the four-hour price flow as tracked by the instantaneous moving average envelope and confirmed by the 14- and 22-hour baselines; doing so as these three indicators reverse direction from a course opposed to that of the 2½-day baseline to trajectories aligned with it.

This means USDJPY officially switched for a bearish to bullish sentiment on January 2, 2024, and I should have entered a long position following the pullback that ended on January 9, 2024 at the 144.41 level.

Moreover, I would be taking profit right now, at 145.38, now that the four-hour price flow appears to be initiating a bearish maneuver, which means my next move is to wait for the rate to drop back down (to perhaps the 144.82 neighborhood or lower) so that I can buy the pair if and when the instantaneous four-hour envelope once again hooks north.

 

[expiated]

TESTING A THEORY

The stuff from Post #821 is (given my trading personality) taking too long to play out. So, having drilled down as far as I can concerning precision and accuracy, let me back up a little and put just as much effort into further quantifying some of the slower time frames.

For example...

If these candles break out of the "green-particles" price flow channel beyond two candlesticks, I might have the beginnings of a short- to long-term run. If not, I might be able to reap a decent amount of profit by trading in the opposite direction.

Now, let me go see what are the parameters of the red and blue moving average envelope, and also how this data translates to the faster charts.

 

[expiated]

In going back and reading the most recent posts from my Guerrilla Trading thread, I find a good number of observations recorded there, but they do NOT gel together nicely. So, in re-evaluating them in light of the above notes from slower time frames, I'm thinking…

The fastest measure I probably want to give much attention to is 8½-minutes (the price flow as represented by the corresponding envelope at 0.02% deviation). I'll want to see if it is above or below the 26-minute baseline and whether the baseline is bullish, bearish or neutral.

I need to bear in mind however that price action spikes up and down, so I'll also want to note if candles are forming in the top or bottom half of the 21-minute price flow channel at 0.07% deviation (which tends to be the maximum deviation level for this measure). Indeed, where price is in relation to this measure is JUST as important as the direction in which the 21- and 26-minute indicators are sloping because I'll want to enter positions as much as possible to the far side of their trajectory as possible (and NOT merely go with the flow of the 8½-minute channel).

I'll also want to remain cognizant of the fact that surges frequently max out at the 0.20% deviation level of the 40-minute price range envelope.

Beyond this, I need to remember that short-term intraday reversals are routinely confirmed by the 30-, 40- and 56-minute baselines; with the 56-minute price range envelope at 0.13% deviation defining yet another significant support and resistance level, and the 90-minute price flow channel at 0.07% deviation serving as a more stable representation of where rates are ultimately headed AND as the arbiter of success or failure when evaluating IF an asset has initiated a run (i.e., price is maintaining its position to the exterior of this channel for more than 30 minutes).

Also important from an intraday perspective is whether price action is taking place above or below the three-hour baseline, and in which direction this indicator is sloping.

And finally, from a day-to-day standpoint, I need to know if the three-hour measure is above or below the (lagging) ten-hour baseline, and in which direction the baseline is angled, (though the 12-hour moving average is a smoother graphic for identifying turns in the day-to-day trend, though obviously it is even slower on the uptake).

 

[expiated]

Okay then, so basically I'm looking to trade in the direction of the trajectory of the 90-minute price flow, entering as far as possible to the opposite side of the direction of its slope; though this might not be feasible if a given asset is trending so strongly that candlesticks are refusing to leave the exterior of the corresponding channel at 0.07% deviation.

Ideally, the 90-minute flow should match that of the three- and ten-hour measures, or at least that of the three-hour indicator(s). Consequently, if it does not, I might want to wait for the 90-minute channel to come back into alignment before taking action.

The main reason for not waiting would be if candlesticks are being rejected at a key support or resistance level, as defined by the price range channels of the 90-minute, 50-minute, two-hour, six-hour or ten-hour moving average envelopes (or some combination thereof).

 

[expiated]

I was curious to compare a configuration I slapped together to illustrate my take on trend trading to a contributor going by DeusXMac...

...with the one I'm actually using to trade...

The latter is represented by the white area in the former. As you can see, none of the five trade opportunities recommended by my "real-life" charts were detected by the theoretical "DeusXMac" version (an outcome I wasn't expecting).

This makes me curious to see what happens if I combine the two versions into one.

UPDATE: I just made the comparison (combined the two into one) and basically, the "real-life" version covers all the same bases (though in slightly different ways) as theoretical version (and more). Hence, the real-life version is sufficient on its own.

 

[expiated]

I was curious to compare a configuration I slapped together to illustrate my take on trend trading to a contributor going by DeusXMac...

I cited the wrong forum. This idea came from DeusXMac's "EURUSD → Buy Signal" thread—and NOT from Oadmani's "Trend Following Strategies" thread.

So now I understand why the theoretical chart was overlooking/missing trade opportunities highlighted by my real-life chart. (It came from a higher/slower time frame).

Okay then...let me transpose the setting/parameters from the chart I posted in Oadmani's thread to that of the one I posted in DeusXMac's thread and compare the two:

So then basically, the "Oadmani" chart more-or-less matches up with the core of the "DeusXMac" chart (highlighted with a lighter shade of gray), which is roughly twice as fast as the wider/slower envelope...and the only way to pinpoint opportunities within the faster time frame is to drop down to a lower chart, which is why they eluded the first chart (on the left).

UPDATE:

So, now I've compared the configuration from the Oadmani thread with the charts I'm actually using for live trading for reals, and I think it must have been a simplified version of the latter, because all I have to do is slap a 90-Minute simple moving average envelop at 0.07% deviation on the theoretical chart and it too immediately becomes sufficient for real-life application.