Cocoa futures

schizo said:
Been wrong once, been wrong twice, but ya can't go wrong thrice!

Happy trading, y'all, and stop eating so much of that chocolatey goo.

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OK\
i cut mine[dilute, cut demand to the max LOL] with whole grains.
barchart.com $till has100% long term buy\ but52 week Hi\10,080 .
But in fairness \ choc KEEPS a long time \ much longer than expiry date\
+ 50day parabolic time price is ''weakest''
May not slam the bulls+ PTP-PSAR is not my favoite indicator ;
but it could slam bulls after Easter/good Friday week end. Choc rabbits go on sale\max.
WMT any way\ started using a lot of semi trucks for storage;
not so with DG,DLTR
 
Pekelo said:
Just hit 10K for the first time per metric ton:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/26/cocoa-prices-hit-10000-per-metric-ton-for-the-first-time-ever.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
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It is unsustainable in context...

cocoachart.JPG


Look familiar?
 
schizo said:
Which is pretty much the same thing as saying "this time it's different" by the delusional bulls. But I'm slowly coming to the conclusion that they both might be right.
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If you think the chart I posted is sustainable, you have a problem. :-)
 
Overnight said:
If you think the chart I posted is sustainable, you have a problem. :)
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There's a real disconnect between the chart and the underlying macro. I'm beginning to believe the problem is a lot more dire than we're told and, obviously, what we see on the chart is not an accurate reflection of what's happening on the ground.
 
schizo said:
There's a real disconnect between the chart and the underlying macro. I'm beginning to believe the problem is a lot more dire than we're told and, obviously, what we see on the chart is not an accurate reflection of what's happening on the ground.
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We are in disagreement. Considering the season for chocolate we are in, plus the Baltimore port thingy...Plus the history? Shorting Cocao now seems the most prudent choice.
 
Overnight said:
We are in disagreement. Considering the season for chocolate we are in, plus the Baltimore port thingy...Plus the history? Shorting Cocao now seems the most prudent choice.
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You would be better off clipping Hershey's coupons. :D $10k doesn't mean crap if there's no cocoa to ship. As I said above, I think the problem is much more grave than what we're hearing in the news.
 
schizo said:
You would be better off clipping Hershey's coupons. :D $10k doesn't mean crap if there's no cocoa to ship. As I said above, I think the problem is much more grave than what we're hearing in the news.
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I would normally say put your money where your Hershey's Kiss is, but I am not trading ATM, and have never traded cocoa futures.

My "bet" is that cocoa is going to see a precipitous fall within the next 4 months.
 
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