Cocoa futures

Overnight said:
Unlike NVDA, however, a commodity can reach a saturation point. While there is no shortage of devices that will need their chips, there is a limited amount of storage for choco powder, and a limited growing season, along consumer demand.

That chart schizo posted shows cocoa futures on an unsustainable trajectory.

If it cannot happen to CL futures, it certainly cannot happen to chocolate.
More...
I wonder how many widows NG has created over the last year trying to catch that falling knife?
 
TrailerParkTed said:
I wonder how many widows NG has created over the last year trying to catch that falling knife?
More...

NG creates widows because for some reason people like to bank their wealth on a low-volatility idea about NG. This makes zero sense to me, considering how on-demand energy sources are. Especially NG.

It is used for heating, cooling, and most importantly, electricity generation. It is not only a primary commodity for demand, it is also a BYPRODUCT of oil drilling. Yes, there are NG-only wells, but most NG comes from CL wells.

The energy complex is nutty. It all must culminate somewhere, and NG is it.
 
Been wrong once, been wrong twice, but ya can't go wrong thrice!

Happy trading, y'all, and stop eating so much of that chocolatey goo.

upload_2024-2-28_12-33-38.png
 
TraDaToR said:
Not that bad of an idea but we need a catalyst for the curve to plunge : ICE certified stocks increase, cocoa grindings down, good news from Ivory coast or Ghana...Never trade on seasonals only;)
More...

This didn't age well...LOL. Actually, this cocoa situation is exceptional. Some producers in Ivory Coast or Ghana won't be able to ship the amounts contracted, the deficit is growing and we are perhaps at the beginning of a multi year run of really low inventories.
 
TraDaToR said:
This didn't age well...LOL. Actually, this cocoa situation is exceptional. Some producers in Ivory Coast or Ghana won't be able to ship the amounts contracted, the deficit is growing and we are perhaps at the beginning of a multi year run of really low inventories.
More...
Only time I've seen something similar was with Palladium (rising 201%), which in fact rose twice as much as Cocoa (110%). But look what happened afterwards (Gulp!)

upload_2024-3-19_14-24-7.png


upload_2024-3-19_14-24-57.png


Eventually, what goes up comes down. Nothing goes up forever!

upload_2024-3-19_14-42-14.png
 
schizo said:
Only time I've seen something similar was with Palladium (rising 201%), which in fact rose twice as much as Cocoa (110%). But look what happened afterwards (Gulp!)

View attachment 336408

View attachment 336409

Eventually, what goes up comes down. Nothing goes up forever!

View attachment 336410
More...

Exactly that last chart. Whoopsie daisy for the longs!

There's a video analogy for this of course. (Did you miss me?)


The irony is evident in combining your chart with the puppet's singing in that one bit, considering it was from pets.com. Good Lord, haha.

But of course, it is not a universal meme. See NVDA for example. :-\
 
Last edited:
p0box4 said:
Wasn't there a guy on here some time back planning to short this around 3300?

Haven't heard from him anymore regarding his short :D.
More...

Yeah IIRC but I haven't been able to find that thread and I don't remember who it was. His argument was "historical highs" and disregarding the supply situation.
 
Snuskpelle said:
Yeah IIRC but I haven't been able to find that thread and I don't remember who it was. His argument was "historical highs" and disregarding the supply situation.
More...

Yep. He said fundamentals were bullshit, he was proven wrong fast.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top