@bone @local you guys are providing valuable info. on spreads.
I Highly appreciate an answer from any of you as you guys know this stuff very well.
Here is a question I have regarding March/April spread trading on 2/14/11 which is trading at $4.25 .
what it takes to sell April oil now and buy March month and take phisical delivery of march month and store it in a ship and deliver it at a month later.
seriously at $4500 per contract , if you have a 10k barrels ship rented it and after all the cost of say $1 for this one month it is a profit of
$3500 x 10k = $3.5 millions
seriously what is the math here.
why Goldman , Morgan stanly and all other big hedge funds can not do this ??
Maybe there's not enough tankers to go around??
get one from europe/asia , all oil tankers are idle there as Brunt is trading $103 nobody is storing.
and we have still one month time to bring tankers as delivery is 1 month after the contract close.
deduct another $5 million for brining ships from far places
deduct another $5 million for financing ( interest paid on this huge money, you pay per contract full money that is $85,000 for oil delivary )
... still $25 million profit .
This whole thing may not be as this simple as it sounds? if so market efficiencies won't let this happen.
one explanation is lots of this trading volume is intraday , if one started accumulating for eventual 10k contracts for MARCH ( and selling 10k for april ) the spread won't be at this level , spread may drop from $4.5 to $3 or below ..
- another explanation is Physical delivary Limts per comapny etc.. These hedge funds can't they have some dummy companies setup for taking this delivery and have multiple of them for this kind of oil storage purpose time to time ??
Quote from bone:
Well, about all of the intra-market spreads like calendars are exchange-supported, so execution is not an issue.