CL Redux

European dealmaking on Syria as U.S. tries to build coalition

http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/07/world/europe/eu-syria-strikes/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

1/ the debate in Congress and a U.N. report should come to a head around the same time.

2/ Many E.U. nations need the U.N. stamp as a legitimacy for supporting action in Syria, even politically. It doesn't have to be a U.N. Security Council resolution. It could be something less formal; it just has to have some U.N. imprimatur.

3/ So this let's everyone get a little of what they want.
-- Hollande gets European political cover.
-- The Europeans get a U.N. address and
-- Obama gets more international consensus.

4/ Kerry told the E.U. no decision has been made to wait, but he appreciated the statement and would take it back to the president's national security team. Officials traveling with Kerry naturally trying to put a positive spin on this: they didn't expect a statement and see this as a clear show of European support for action.

5/ Obama may say he doesn't have to wait for the U.N. report -- but Hollande does, so Obama is going to have to deal with it if he wants any European support, especially from France.
 
Russia To Push Syria To Put Chemical Weapons Under International Control

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/...-weapons-international-control_n_3893951.html

1/ The surprise series of statements from top U.S., Russian and Syrian diplomats followed media reports alleging that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who discussed Syria with President Barack Obama during the Group of 20 summit in St. Petersburg last week, had sought to negotiate a deal that would have Assad hand over control of chemical weapons.

2/ <b> Putin himself said Friday at a news conference marking the summit's end that he and Obama discussed some new ideas regarding a peaceful settlement of the crisis and instructed Kerry and Lavrov to work out details. </b>

3/ "We are calling on the Syrian leadership to not only agree on placing chemical weapons storage sites under international control, but also on its subsequent destruction and fully joining the treaty on prohibition of chemical weapons," he (Russian Foreign Minister) said.

4/ <b>Also Monday, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged Syria to immediately agree to transfer chemical weapons and chemical precursors to a safe place within the country for international destruction. </b>

5/ Ban said he will also propose to the <b> Security Council that it unite and demand an immediate chemical weapons transfer should U.N. inspectors conclude that such weapons were used in an attack Aug. 21 in a suburb of Damascus. </b>
 
Obama: 'Breakthrough' is possible on Syria

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/...d-turns-over-weapons-96498.html#ixzz2eRblpKCD

1/ Obama had initially anticipated broad congressional support for a strike and said as much in remarks as recently as late last week, but conceded Monday that support isn’t strong. <b> “I wouldn’t say I’m confident” that Congress will authorize action, he told NBC. </b>

2/ Just as Obama’s interviews began to air at 6 p.m. ET, Reid announced that he would hold off on filing cloture until after the president’s speech to the nation, <b>which is set for Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET.</b>

3/ “I don’t think we need to see how fast we can do this. We have to see how well we can do this,” Reid (D-Nev.) told senators. “What we need to do is make sure that the president has the opportunity to speak to all 100 senators all 300 million people before we do this.”

4/ The Nevada Democrat had planned a full Senate vote Wednesday. It's unclear when that might happen now.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/09/politics/obama-syria-interview/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

5/ Washington (CNN) -- Russia's proposal for Syria to surrender its chemical weapons to international control was a "potentially positive development," but could be a stall tactic, President Barack Obama told CNN on Monday.

"We're going to run this to ground," Obama said in an interview with CNN's Wolf Blitzer, adding that the United States will work with Syrian ally Russia and the international community "to see if we can arrive at something that is enforceable and serious."

6/<b> "We have not seen these kinds of gestures up until now," the president said. "The fact that the U.S. administration and I have said we are serious about this, I think has prompted some interesting conversations." </b>

The Russian proposal <b>could lead to a "breakthrough," but would require follow-up while maintaining pressure on Syria and Russia by continuing his push for Congress to authorize a military attack, Obama said. </b>
 
looks like the Russians are going to play ball in a way. i took my g4/gh hedge off.. now i'm just in two dec3/jan4 or to put in another way z3/f4 calenders... and i have a Z3/M4/Z4 butterfly on
 
Positive Expectation, Scenario Gaming, and Moving Beyond Certainty

http://www.mercenarytrader.com/2013...-scenario-gaming-and-moving-beyond-certainty/

1/ developing philosophical comfort with uncertainty
2/ learning to think in terms of probabilistic expectation
3/ accumulating practice and experience with scenario gaming
4/ knowing when and how to bet in context of repeated trials
5/ via probabilistic assessment, knowing when and how to bet BIG
6/ cutting out distractions and enhancing skills over time
 
Obama Agrees To U.N. Discussion Of Putting Syria Chemical Weapons Under International Control
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/10/obama-un-russia-syria_n_3900121.html?ref=topbar

1/ This morning, the President spoke separately with President Hollande and Prime Minister Cameron.

2/ They agreed to work closely together, and in consultation with Russia and China, to explore seriously the viability of the Russian proposal to put all Syrian chemical weapons and related materials fully under international control in order to ensure their verifiable and enforceable destruction.

3/ <b>These efforts will begin today at the United Nations, and will include a discussion on elements of a potential UN Security Council Resolution.</b>
 
Alternative Syria Resolution Being Negotiated In The Senate
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/10/syria-resolution_n_3899899.html

1/ The proposal would grant the <b>AUMF [Authorization for Use of Military Force]</b> only in the absence of certification by the President that a UN Security Council resolution had passed that includes specific conditions, and that those conditions were being met along a specified timeline.

2/ Basically, the AUMF would be conditional and triggered only if the Russian plan fails.

3/ There will be a specific deadline for the UN Security Council to pass a resolution and a separate deadline for inspectors to verify the Syrians have turned over their chemical weapons.

4/ <b> If the President cannot certify that those conditions have been met within the specific timeline, then the AUMF goes into effect.</b>

5/ The conditions will be something along the lines of passage of a UN Security Council resolution that puts into place an inspections process, unfettered access to every WMD site, guarantees for secure freedom of movement for all international inspectors, immediate steps by Assad to begin transferring WMD to international custody, and clear consequences and triggers for action if obligations are not met by a specific time.
 
Quote from InvestVision:

Positive Expectation, Scenario Gaming, and Moving Beyond Certainty

http://www.mercenarytrader.com/2013...-scenario-gaming-and-moving-beyond-certainty/

1/ developing philosophical comfort with uncertainty
2/ learning to think in terms of probabilistic expectation
3/ accumulating practice and experience with scenario gaming
4/ knowing when and how to bet in context of repeated trials
5/ via probabilistic assessment, knowing when and how to bet BIG
6/ cutting out distractions and enhancing skills over time
More...

:cool:
 
I got another buy signal today for oil stocks and acted on it (added) .

Does not appear too promising, based on latest diplomacy developments, but signal is signal.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top