CL Redux

What Does an Edge Look Like? (Decisions, Decisions…)
http://www.mercenarytrader.com/2013...sions-decisions/comment-page-1/#comment-34193

What does it mean to have an “edge” in trading… or poker… or any structured competitive endeavor for that matter?

An old rule of thumb is: “If you don’t know what your edge is, you don’t have one.”
<b>1/ A real edge is more durable than most realize.
2/ Developing a real edge takes EFFORT!
3/ The long run investment is WORTH IT. </b>
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Each of these trades involves at least four decisions:
- When to enter
- Where to set the risk point
- When to exit (assuming RP not hit or otherwise adjusted)
- How much size (how big to make the trade)

Nor does the above consider partial profit taking, pyramiding, holistic portfolio decisions, hedging strategies, and so on.

Then there are meta-level decisions to be made regarding things like:

- Base levels of aggression relative to market conditions
- Levels of drawdown tolerance relative to equity curve
- Strategy implementation relative to market environment
- “Special tools” – special situation trades, structures etc.

<b>our baseline discretionary swing trader, who “only” makes twenty trades per month on average, still has to make something on the order of 200 decisions — remember all the stuff that’s said “no” to — all of which have a potential impact on cumulative net results… </b>
 
Goldman: Upside risk to oil prices in near term
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/go...near-term-2013-09-11?link=MW_home_latest_news

MADRID (MarketWatch) -- Even though recent political events have cut the chances for military intervention in Syria, risks to oil prices are still skewed to the upside over the next several months, said the commodities research team at Goldman Sachs in a note on Wednesday.

Led by Jeffrey Currie, the analysts said some ease could come by October though, as pressure on Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries's spare capacity will likely peak this month in face of ongoing shortfalls from Libya and very low OECD petroleum stocks.

"However, barring more serious spillover from Syria into the broader region, we expect the seasonal decline in oil demand in Saudi Arabia toward the end of the year and a gradual recovery in ex-Saudi OPEC crude-oil production levels will likely bring prices to levels consistent with a more balanced market by end 2013," Goldman said.

<b>Goldman's three- and six-month crude forecasts are $104 and $100 a barrel, respectively with a 12-month forecast of $96 a barrel. </b>

For Brent crude, Goldman predicts $110, $108 and $105 a barrel, respectively.
 
Quote from InvestVision:

What Does an Edge Look Like? (Decisions, Decisions…)
http://www.mercenarytrader.com/2013...sions-decisions/comment-page-1/#comment-34193

What does it mean to have an “edge” in trading… or poker… or any structured competitive endeavor for that matter?

An old rule of thumb is: “If you don’t know what your edge is, you don’t have one.”
<b>1/ A real edge is more durable than most realize.
2/ Developing a real edge takes EFFORT!
3/ The long run investment is WORTH IT. </b>
-----------
Each of these trades involves at least four decisions:
- When to enter
- Where to set the risk point
- When to exit (assuming RP not hit or otherwise adjusted)
- How much size (how big to make the trade)

Nor does the above consider partial profit taking, pyramiding, holistic portfolio decisions, hedging strategies, and so on.

Then there are meta-level decisions to be made regarding things like:

- Base levels of aggression relative to market conditions
- Levels of drawdown tolerance relative to equity curve
- Strategy implementation relative to market environment
- “Special tools” – special situation trades, structures etc.

<b>our baseline discretionary swing trader, who “only” makes twenty trades per month on average, still has to make something on the order of 200 decisions — remember all the stuff that’s said “no” to — all of which have a potential impact on cumulative net results… </b>
More...


First its plastering news about crude... Now its advertising mercenary's website... This post is advertising not discussion about CL....
 
Putin: Syria strike would be 'act of aggression'
http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/11/politics/syria-diplomacy-kerry/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

1/ While the focus now is on Switzerland, U.N. headquarters in New York is expected to become the focal point early next week when <b>U.N. chemical weapons inspectors deliver their report to the Security Council -- as early as Monday or Tuesday, </b>sources say -- on the August 21 attack in Syria.


2/ Putin's piece went online around the time U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry headed to Geneva, Switzerland, to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

3/ <b>Their two days of talks will revolve around a Moscow proposal </b> to avert a U.S.-led strike in Syria by having the Syrian government put its chemical weapons stockpile under international control.
 
Oil holds ground as Saudis set to support output
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oi...rt-output-2013-09-12?link=MW_home_latest_news

1/ Earlier Thursday, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said his nation and other major producers “remain willing and capable of meeting any additional demand.”

“Clearly, geopolitics and speculation about geopolitics is impacting prices,” al-Naimi said at a meeting of energy ministers in Seoul, according to Dow Jones Newswires.

2/ Citi Futures, which <b> recommends shorting both Nymex and Brent crude futures </b>, saw overall fundamental as bearish, citing not only the less-than-expected fall in inventories but also U.S. production figures.

3/ “For the most part, we think oil-futures trade has trained the market to overlook U.S. crude-oil production numbers,” Citi Futures analyst Timothy Evans said in a note, adding that the <b> data showed what “looks like the highest weekly output since May 1989.” </b>
 
Oil edges higher as U.S. pursues diplomacy for Syria
http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/09/11/markets-oil-idINDEE98A0H820130911

- Crude oil prices edged up in choppy trading on Wednesday as investors worried about whether diplomatic efforts to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons would avert military action that could disrupt oil supplies from the Middle East.

OIL Positives
=============
1/ "The market's given back as much as it's going to over Syria, and that attracted some buyers who are still worried about what's going to happen there," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC.

2/ Also supporting oil prices, investors remained uncertain about whether negotiations in Libya would end labor strikes at oilfields and ports that have disrupted oil exports.

3/ Crude has also drawn support from recent positive economic data from China and the United States


OIL Negatives
=============

As the geopolitical risk premium deflated Brent prices, the global benchmark's premium over U.S. oil narrowed to $3.61 a barrel during the session. But Brent's premium widened back out to $3.94 at settlement, which was up from the previous settlement.

1/ U.S. government data showed lackluster oil demand.

Crude stocks dipped by 219,000 barrels last week, a smaller decline than the decrease of 1.5 million barrels analysts had expected. Gasoline stocks rose unexpectedly, indicating that demand supported by summer driving season had ended.

2/ <b>U.S. gasoline futures settled at $2.71 a gallon, its lowest closing price since mid-January. </b>


3/ The U.S. Federal Reserve may decide next week to begin tapering its monetary stimulus, although last Friday's disappointing U.S. jobs data convinced many economists that any withdrawal will probably be gradual.

A cut in Fed stimulus would likely strengthen the dollar, hitting oil and other commodities priced in the greenback.
 
<b>Mission impossible?Securing Syria's chemical weapons wouldn't be easy</b>
http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/11/world/meast/syria-chemical-weapons-secure/index.html?hpt=wo_c1

1/ Throughout much of the 1990s, U.N. weapons inspectors criss-crossed Iraq in search of Saddam Hussein's stocks of chemical weapons. It was a game of cat and mouse, as inspectors tried to reconcile what the Iraqi regime was telling them with conflicting intelligence from western governments.

In total, the inspectors of the U.N. Special Commission supervised the destruction of more than 40,000 chemical munitions, some 500,000 liters of chemical agents, 1.8 million liters of chemical precursors and delivery systems including ballistic missile warheads.


2/ That experience may provide a glimpse of the obstacles to securing and removing or destroying Syria's massive stocks of the precursors that make chemical weapons. According to a new study by the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Israel,
"Syria has accumulated since the 1980s a stockpile of approximately 1,000 tons of chemical weapons, stored in some 50 different sites

3/ Last year the U.S. Defense Department estimated that it might take as many as 70,000 troops to secure Syria's chemical weapons stockpile. That admittedly involved intervening in a conflict -- as opposed to having permission to access sites -- but it provides an indication of the scale of the task.

4/ "Syria's overall chemical weapons program is large, complex and geographically dispersed, with sites for storage, production, and preparation," James Clapper, the Director of National Intelligence, wrote in March this year.
 
Fracking Moves U.S. Crude Output to Highest Level Since 1989
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...crude-output-to-highest-level-since-1989.html

1/ U.S. oil production jumped last week to the highest level since May 1989, cutting consumption of foreign fuel and putting the U.S. closer to energy independence.

2/ Drilling techniques including hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, pushed crude output up by 124,000 barrels, or 1.6 percent, to 7.745 million barrels a day in the seven days ended Sept. 6, the Energy Information Administration said today.

3/ Rising crude supplies from fields including North Dakota’s Bakken shale and the Eagle Ford in Texas have helped the U.S. become the world’s largest exporter of refined fuels including gasoline and diesel. Texas pumped 2.575 million barrels a day in June, according to the EIA, enough to rank it ahead of seven members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

“It’s amazing,” . “The state of Texas is now producing more oil than the country of Iran.”

Rising Supplies
4/ The U.S. met 87 percent of its own energy needs in the first five months of 2013, on pace to be the highest annual rate since 1986, EIA data show. Domestic crude output will average 7.5 million barrels a day in 2013 and 8.4 million in 2014, the EIA said yesterday in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.

5/Rising domestic supplies have curbed consumption of foreign fuel. Net imports of crude oil and petroleum products will fall to 5.4 million barrels a day by 2014, down from 12.5 million in 2005, the EIA, a unit of the Energy Department, said in the report.

6/ The abundance of crude has made the U.S. an increasingly important refining hub. U.S. exports of distillate fuel oil, largely comprised of diesel, rose to an all-time high of 1.285 million barrels a day in June, the EIA said Aug. 29.
 
Syria UN Chem Ban Process
http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/13/politics/us-syria/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

1/ CNN's Nick Paton Walsh reports that the convention would become legally binding on Syria 30 days after it formally joins, meaning al-Assad's government would have to permit inspections at that time.

2/ After another 30 days -- which would be 60 days from when it formally joined the convention -- Syria would have to declare its chemical weapons stockpiles.


3/ On Thursday, al-Assad noted that joining the convention would give Syria the standard 30 days from compliance to declare its stockpiles, but Kerry responded by expressing concern about that long a time period, saying "we believe there is nothing standard about this process."


Quote from InvestVision:

UN Report on Monday
http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/12/world/meast/syria-civil-war-diplomacy/index.html?hpt=wo_c1

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius says the U.N. report on last month's attack will probably be published Monday. And there will "certainly be indications" that the attack originated with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime
More...
 
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