CL Redux

Here is CL 100 WEEK Linear Regression Channel .
- The Inner band is 1 Standard deviation , the outer band is 2 STD
- EMA is 15 week typical price (h+l+c)/3

few observations:
1/ in 2012 March , before raise (to $110) crude has a base of $100 , that is 3 months bars hovering around $100 line .

2/ where for this week rise, crude base is around $94 , that is 3 months bars hovering around $94 line .

based the above , THIS time crude $110 may NOT hold for WEEKS ( where as in 2012 March crude hovering around 108 for 5 weeks ).

<img src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/wFfkPMto"/>
 
Quote from Visaria:

the crack spread is now at 200 :D
More...
GOLDMAN SACHS is laughing all the way to Bank as he is CLOSED BRENT/WIT spread a week ago below $5 which was opened last year in $15-$20 range .

<b>Goldman closes Brent/WTI call as spread hits 2.5-year low</b>
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/02/research-goldman-crude-idUSL2N0F81MC20130702

here is other Brent/WTI spread forecast GOING forward:
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1/ Deutsche Bank AG revised higher its long-term forecast for the differential between the two crudes to $15 per barrel by 2016 compared with an earlier forecast of $11.70.

Its 2013 forecast was revised lower to around $10 per barrel versus a previous forecast of $13.30.

2/ UBS AG said in a report that it expects WTI's discount to Brent to widen to $12 in the third quarter and then narrow slightly to $10 in the fourth quarter and $6 per barrel from the second quarter of 2014.
 
<b>WTI Crude NOT sustainable at $110 level </b>

Here is another Reason WTI Crude CL is NOT sustainable for WEEKS at $110 level .

Goldman Sachs , UBS , Duche Bank all must be busy BUYING this spread for their LONG TERM ( 1 year) Millionaire Clients and for themselves which is historic 2.5 years low

Buying BRENT/WTI spread = ( LONG BRENT/SHORT WTI CL )
 
Here is my Hunch , GOLDMAN SACHS and friends might have BOUGHT BRENT/WTI Spread in a very big way today at historic 2.5 Years LOW PRICES of $1.5 to $2 today when WTI traded at $107+ today .

Buying BRENT/WTI spread = ( LONG BRENT/SHORT WTI CL )

Buying the above Spread means SHORT Selling WTI Crude CL .

This may be one reason CL took big beating today after touching $107 ( while Brent did not get hit that bad ) in-spite of Stock market 1.5% UP .

Quote from InvestVision:

<b>WTI Crude NOT sustainable at $110 level </b>

Here is another Reason WTI Crude CL is NOT sustainable for WEEKS at $110 level .

Goldman Sachs , UBS , Duche Bank all must be busy BUYING this spread for their LONG TERM ( 1 year) Millionaire Clients and for themselves which is historic 2.5 years low

Buying BRENT/WTI spread = ( LONG BRENT/SHORT WTI CL )
More...
 
After today excessive CL sell off , I See CL range bound AROUND 103 to 106.50 next 3 trading days ( with NO extreme EVENTS ) .

NEWS:
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<b>US oil sinks as fears of Midwest crude squeeze ease</b>
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/11/markets-oil-idUSL4N0FH10F20130711

1/ News from the U.S. Midwest, including an apparent closure of the Seaway pipeline that ships crude from Cushing to the Gulf Coast, helped temper the squeeze fears. Also adding pressure was the closure of one of two small crude distillation units for a planned overhaul at BP's 405,000 barrel per day (bpd) Whiting, Indiana, refinery, which will reduce inland crude oil demand.

By late afternoon, after market settlement prices were in, flows on the Seaway pipeline had mostly resumed.

2/ <b>"The rally overextended itself and the market's been a little overdone for some profit-taking," said Gene McGillian, an analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. </b>

3/ The market is still "backwardated" meaning prompt month prices are higher than those further out along the curve.

"The steep backwardation suggests supply scarcity, but that is hard to reconcile with the reported crude oil stock position," said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity market strategy at BNP Paribas in London.

4/ Prices were higher earlier in the session on a weaker U.S. dollar and after markets absorbed news from a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the central bank would continue to pursue an accommodative monetary policy.
 
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