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CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
<b>Hedge funds held a net LONG position of 281,918 contracts during the week ended Tuesday</b>
NEW YORK--Money managers boosted their bets on higher oil prices to the highest level in more than two years during the week ended Tuesday, according to government data.
<b>Hedge funds and other speculators held a net long position of 281,918 contracts during the week ended Tuesday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Friday. That is a rise of 6.9% over the prior week and the biggest net long position since March 22, 2011.</b>
The rise in bullish bets coincides with a recent jump in oil prices. Benchmark crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.9% that week, ending Tuesday at $103.53 a barrel.
On March 22, 2011, Nymex crude settled at $104 a barrel.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130712-710122.html
NEW YORK--Money managers boosted their bets on higher oil prices to the highest level in more than two years during the week ended Tuesday, according to government data.
<b>Hedge funds and other speculators held a net long position of 281,918 contracts during the week ended Tuesday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Friday. That is a rise of 6.9% over the prior week and the biggest net long position since March 22, 2011.</b>
The rise in bullish bets coincides with a recent jump in oil prices. Benchmark crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.9% that week, ending Tuesday at $103.53 a barrel.
On March 22, 2011, Nymex crude settled at $104 a barrel.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130712-710122.html
<b> CHINA Industrial Output Down in JUNE </b>
1/ China's gross domestic product in the second quarter grew by 7.5% versus last year, a slowdown from the 7.7% registered for the first quarter. The figure, however, was in line with estimates in a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires.
2/ A separate report said China's industrial output in June grew at 8.9% from last year, compared with forecasted growth of 9.1%.
The data are the latest evidence that economic growth in China is finally decelerating. Roaring growth in China in recent years has fueled a boom in demand of commodities such as oil, helping to buoy prices even as growth has stalled in the U.S. and Europe.
3/ <b>"The China data was kind of disappointing," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. "That took the momentum down a little bit." </b>
4/ Later this week, markets will shift focus to U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony on the economy before Congress.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323848804578606983478249510.html
1/ China's gross domestic product in the second quarter grew by 7.5% versus last year, a slowdown from the 7.7% registered for the first quarter. The figure, however, was in line with estimates in a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires.
2/ A separate report said China's industrial output in June grew at 8.9% from last year, compared with forecasted growth of 9.1%.
The data are the latest evidence that economic growth in China is finally decelerating. Roaring growth in China in recent years has fueled a boom in demand of commodities such as oil, helping to buoy prices even as growth has stalled in the U.S. and Europe.
3/ <b>"The China data was kind of disappointing," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. "That took the momentum down a little bit." </b>
4/ Later this week, markets will shift focus to U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony on the economy before Congress.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323848804578606983478249510.html
<b>US gasoline cost $3.5908 on July 12, down from 3 weeks ago </b>
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/14/energy-gasoline-retail-idUSL1N0FK0HK20130714
* Gasoline retailers seen hiking pump prices to pass on cost
* Supply seen ample, refining capacity utilization high
NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - The average price of U.S. gasoline dipped slightly over the past three weeks due to plentiful supplies, but prices are expected to jump soon as retailers pass on the higher cost of wholesale gasoline to consumers, the Lundberg survey said on Sunday.
1/ Gasoline cost $3.5908 a gallon on average, according to the widely followed survey of about 2,500 retail stations taken on July 12. That is 0.61 cent a gallon cheaper than the last survey on June 21, but still 18.05 cents higher than a year ago.
2/ <b>Late last week, an increase in crude oil prices prompted refiners to lift the prices of refined products they charge wholesalers. Now retailers are expected to pass on higher cost of wholesale gasoline to consumers, said Trilby Lundberg, author of Lundberg survey.</b>
"If crude oil prices stay approximately where they are right now, what we may see in coming days would be about 10 cents per gallon price hike overall at the pump," said Lundberg.
3/ <b>On Friday, crude oil futures rose, led by the biggest surge in gasoline futures this year as a string of refinery outages stoked concerns about fuel supplies in the heart of the U.S. summer driving season.</b>
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/14/energy-gasoline-retail-idUSL1N0FK0HK20130714
* Gasoline retailers seen hiking pump prices to pass on cost
* Supply seen ample, refining capacity utilization high
NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - The average price of U.S. gasoline dipped slightly over the past three weeks due to plentiful supplies, but prices are expected to jump soon as retailers pass on the higher cost of wholesale gasoline to consumers, the Lundberg survey said on Sunday.
1/ Gasoline cost $3.5908 a gallon on average, according to the widely followed survey of about 2,500 retail stations taken on July 12. That is 0.61 cent a gallon cheaper than the last survey on June 21, but still 18.05 cents higher than a year ago.
2/ <b>Late last week, an increase in crude oil prices prompted refiners to lift the prices of refined products they charge wholesalers. Now retailers are expected to pass on higher cost of wholesale gasoline to consumers, said Trilby Lundberg, author of Lundberg survey.</b>
"If crude oil prices stay approximately where they are right now, what we may see in coming days would be about 10 cents per gallon price hike overall at the pump," said Lundberg.
3/ <b>On Friday, crude oil futures rose, led by the biggest surge in gasoline futures this year as a string of refinery outages stoked concerns about fuel supplies in the heart of the U.S. summer driving season.</b>
Good article on how Refinery companies stock price under pressure due to reduced Brent/WTI Spread
Shrinking Brent-WTI Spread: Why You Should Avoid These Midwest Refiners
http://beta.fool.com/sarfarazis/2013/07/12/shrinking-brent-wti-spread-why-you-should-avoid-th/39938/
Shrinking Brent-WTI Spread: Why You Should Avoid These Midwest Refiners
http://beta.fool.com/sarfarazis/2013/07/12/shrinking-brent-wti-spread-why-you-should-avoid-th/39938/
Prsent crude oil and GASOLINE inventories are at VERY HiGH levels compared to Historical levels , in two weeks time we should see WTI CL below $100 Level .
<img src="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/storage/Crude%20Oil%20Inventories%20071013.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1373467588888"/>
<img src="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/storage/Gasoline%20Inventories%20071013.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1373467794412"/>
<img src="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/storage/Crude%20Oil%20Inventories%20071013.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1373467588888"/>
<img src="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/storage/Gasoline%20Inventories%20071013.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1373467794412"/>
<b>How we got into this CRUDE $106?
good article explaining the Perfect STROM of storm of temporary factors including
- seasonal, ( seasonal PEAK of year around INDEPENDENCE DAY )
- environmental and (pipeLine Shutdowns )
political issues (Egypt Unrest )
</b>
above 3 Bullish Factors ( on the face of HUGE Bearish factor that is HISTORIC High Crude OIL Inventories )
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/10696435/crude-oil-rise-is-temporary
The price of crude oil has risen by more than 13% in the last two weeks. The price has been driven up by a perfect storm of temporary factors including seasonal, environmental and political issues.
We believe these will subside and return us to a fundamentally over supplied market causing it to fall back below the magic $100 per barrel mark.
1/ Crude oil futures traded under $93 per barrel as recently as June 24th. This is also the day that flooding concerns began creeping into the news from Alberta, Canada, the largest exporter to the U.S. The flooding eventually shut down pipelines from Enbridge and Penwest Exploration beginning on June 25th. Uncertainty regarding future supplies created support for the market. Prices stabilized between $94 and $96 per barrel.
2/ Egypt Unrest
<b>3/ The natural disasters and political unrest also came as the market was heading into the first of crude oil's twin peaks of seasonality.
- The first peak is Independence Day.
- The second comes around Labor Day.
The combination of all of these factors has forced the crude oil market rapidly higher in the face of weak fundamental data.
</b>
4/ BEARISH Historic HIGH Inventories: Crude oil inventories are well above their five-year average. This spring actually saw the highest inventories in the last five years, nearly touching 400 million barrels in May. This is more than 14% above the five-year average and 3.5% above last year's inventory.
The market remains oversupplied with inventories currently around 382 million barrels, still well above the current five-year average of 337 million barrels. In fact, inventories would be even higher had we not drawn down 10 million barrels last week to meet the temporary decline in Canadian imports.
good article explaining the Perfect STROM of storm of temporary factors including
- seasonal, ( seasonal PEAK of year around INDEPENDENCE DAY )
- environmental and (pipeLine Shutdowns )
political issues (Egypt Unrest )
</b>
above 3 Bullish Factors ( on the face of HUGE Bearish factor that is HISTORIC High Crude OIL Inventories )
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/10696435/crude-oil-rise-is-temporary
The price of crude oil has risen by more than 13% in the last two weeks. The price has been driven up by a perfect storm of temporary factors including seasonal, environmental and political issues.
We believe these will subside and return us to a fundamentally over supplied market causing it to fall back below the magic $100 per barrel mark.
1/ Crude oil futures traded under $93 per barrel as recently as June 24th. This is also the day that flooding concerns began creeping into the news from Alberta, Canada, the largest exporter to the U.S. The flooding eventually shut down pipelines from Enbridge and Penwest Exploration beginning on June 25th. Uncertainty regarding future supplies created support for the market. Prices stabilized between $94 and $96 per barrel.
2/ Egypt Unrest
<b>3/ The natural disasters and political unrest also came as the market was heading into the first of crude oil's twin peaks of seasonality.
- The first peak is Independence Day.
- The second comes around Labor Day.
The combination of all of these factors has forced the crude oil market rapidly higher in the face of weak fundamental data.
</b>
4/ BEARISH Historic HIGH Inventories: Crude oil inventories are well above their five-year average. This spring actually saw the highest inventories in the last five years, nearly touching 400 million barrels in May. This is more than 14% above the five-year average and 3.5% above last year's inventory.
The market remains oversupplied with inventories currently around 382 million barrels, still well above the current five-year average of 337 million barrels. In fact, inventories would be even higher had we not drawn down 10 million barrels last week to meet the temporary decline in Canadian imports.
Interesting Video found on stockTwits , predicting Crude OIL Seasonal Down Trend from MAY 1 - May 31 ( whole month of MAY ) many years ( basing on seasonal + COT reading ) .
One reason it did not work MAY month crude Drop THIS YEAR seems , Crude was already down whole APRIL month THIS YEAR to $87 , so there is no Further down to go
- to the Credit of the Post of this VIDEO ( and to Honor Seasonal Effect) , CRUDE stayed FLAT around $94 with so many Hammer Candlestick Bars
http://stocktwits.com/TimingCharts/message/13228431
I am suspecting this Seasonal SHARP drop of MAY month , may come around JULY 25 - July 30 time frame this Year
One reason it did not work MAY month crude Drop THIS YEAR seems , Crude was already down whole APRIL month THIS YEAR to $87 , so there is no Further down to go
- to the Credit of the Post of this VIDEO ( and to Honor Seasonal Effect) , CRUDE stayed FLAT around $94 with so many Hammer Candlestick Bars
http://stocktwits.com/TimingCharts/message/13228431
I am suspecting this Seasonal SHARP drop of MAY month , may come around JULY 25 - July 30 time frame this Year