CL Redux

Quote from Visaria:

everyone's on holiday in the Hamptons

yeah that's it, sometimes it you have to check your not on the wrong contract
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very good READ .....

The War Is On

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iran/articles/20120712.aspx

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1/ July 12, 2012: The new, and more severe, sanctions against Iran have been in force for nearly two weeks, and they are hurting. Oil shipments, according to the Iranian government, are down 30 percent.

2/ Inflation, according to the government is somewhere north of 20 percent. It's actually closer to 30 percent, largely because the government just prints more money to give angry Iranians, to help offset the ever-rising prices. This just makes the inflation worse.

3/ <b>Iran has made it clear that if the sanctions really hurt (they already do), the Straits of Hormuz could be closed by Iranian missiles, mines and warships. This is unlikely, as this would be a declaration of war against most of the world. The threat was mainly for internal consumption, because the oil sales sanctions are hurting. </b>

4/ <b> Right now, the Iranian government is facing monthly losses of $3 billion a month because of lost oil sales. The Iranian government budget is $38 billion a month, so that lost oil income is a major problem for cash-strapped Iran.

Because the Iranian currency is rapidly losing value against foreign currencies, the government budget's buying power outside the country is closer to $25 billion a month. This makes it much more expensive to buy foreign goods.

Much of the budget goes to aid the poor and unemployed (who got that way largely because of the corruption and economic mismanagement of the religious dictatorship). Money must also be lavished on the quarter of the population who support the ruling clerics. Many Iranians are already feeling the pinch and they are not happy. </b>



5/ July 11, 2012: The government warned media to not report on how the sanctions are hurting. That will slow down, but not stop, the spread of such news.

<b>Plenty of information on sanction-related suffering is spreading within Iran (via cell phones, Internet and plain old person-to-person gossip) and getting out of the country. There it is collected, often reinterpreted in interesting ways, and finds its way back into Iran via the Internet and illegal satellite TV and shortwave radio. This government ban is backfiring, because it confirms all the rumors, including the exaggerated and untrue ones. </b>
 
Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei Bodes War, Judgment Day

http://www.freedomessenger.com/archives/49496

Iran’s supreme religilous and political leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has issued an unprecedented statement calling people across the world to prepare for the wars signalling the coming of Judgment Day.

“We must prepare for the coming. Since we consider ourselves the warriors of the 12th Imam, we must fight,” said Khamenei in a position published simulaneously by a number of Iranian state media, reports Lenta.ru.

“Under the leadership of God, and with his invisible Power, we will restore the glory of Islamic Civilization,” stated the Iranian supreme leader.

Lenta.ru furhter writes that some months ago, a book entitled “The Last Six Months” was distributed among Iran’s army.

According to the book, there is little time remaining for this world, as many prophecies of its end have come true, and accordingly soldiers and officers must be in a permanent war alert.
 
<b>U.S. moving submersibles to Persian Gulf to oppose Iran </b>

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/07/submersibles-persian-gulf-to-oppose-iran.html

1/ WASHINGTON — <b> The Navy is rushing dozens of unmanned underwater craft to the Persian Gulf to help detect and destroy mines in a major military buildup aimed at preventing Iran from closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz in the event of a crisis, U.S. officials said. </b>

The tiny SeaFox submersibles each carry an underwater television camera, homing sonar and an explosive charge. The Navy bought them in May after an urgent request by Marine Gen. James Mattis, the top U.S. commander in the Middle East.

2/ Each submersible is about 4 feet long and weighs less than 100 pounds. The craft are intended to boost U.S. military capabilities as negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program appear to have stalled. Three rounds of talks since April between Iran and the five countries in the United Nations Security Council plus Germany have made little progress.



2/ <b>The first of the SeaFox submersibles arrived in the Gulf in recent weeks, officials said, along with four MH-53 Sea Dragon helicopters and four minesweeping ships, part of a larger buildup of U.S. naval, air and ground forces in the region aimed at Iran. </b>

3/ The U.S. already has sent two aircraft carriers and a squadron of F-22 fighters to the Persian Gulf, and is keeping two U.S. army brigades in Kuwait. Though much of the buildup has been publicly acknowledged by the Pentagon, the deployment of the submersibles has not been publicly disclosed, apparently to avoid alerting Iran.

4/ The SeaFox is small enough to be deployed from helicopters and even small rubber boats, but it also can be dropped off the back of a minesweeper. It is controlled by a fiber optic cable and sends live video back to a camera operator.

<b>It can be used against floating or drifting mines, which Iran has used in the past. It operates up to 300 meters deep, and moves at speeds of up to six knots. But the $100,000 weapon is on a what amounts to a suicide mission. The “built-in, large caliber shaped charge” it carries destroys the mine but also the vehicle itself. </b>
 
the Crude oil global war alert indicator is at $85, all is well there is not impending war
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Quote from EON Kid:

From the The New Market Wizards Jack Schwager : AL Weiss


==== Why have you chosen a purely technical approach in favor of one that also employs fundamentals?
====
Many economists have tried to trade the commodity markets fundamentally and have usually ended up
losing. The problem is that the markets operate more on psychology than on fundamentals. For example, you
may determine that silver should be priced at, say, $8, and that may well be an accurate evaluation.
However, under certain conditions-for example, a major inflationary environment-the price could temporarily
go much higher. In the commodity inflation boom that peaked in 1980, silver reached a high of $50-a price
level that was out of all proportion to any true fundamental value. Of course, eventually the market returned
to its base value-in fact, in the history of markets, I can't think of a single commodity that didn't eventually
move back to its base value-but in the interim, anyone trading purely on the fundamentals would have been
wiped out.
==== Do any particularly memorable trades come to mind? ====
Whenever I'm on vacation, I continue to chart the markets. In the summer of 1990, while on vacation in
the Bahamas, I was updating my charts on a picnic table beneath the palm trees. I noticed patterns that
indicated buy signals in all the energy markets. These signals seemed particularly odd because it's very
unusual to get a buy signal in heating oil during the summer. However, I didn't question the trade and simply
phoned in the orders. Three days later, Iraq invaded Kuwait and oil prices exploded.
 
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