CL Redux

Quote from riskaddict:



But I know i'll probably cry a little bit if I wake tomorrow and we are down 3 bucks. In fact I'm crying a little bit right now as I'm watching it tank while I'm goofing off watching Iron Monkey for the 5th time.
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It is more likely to drop with Europeans tonight.

The European insurers (Lloyd's for example) are selling big time today. This indicates something bad is going to happen. If my guess is right, it means private bond holders are NOT joining the Greek swap deal, meaning that the insurers will pay the bond holders all the money that the Greeks refuse to pay.

If any banks are also in the bond insurance business, they will take a big hit, too.

I wonder why rating agencies are always hesitant in downgrading these banks. Crooks delaying the inevitable?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eu...-german-bailout-vote-2012-02-27?siteid=yhoof2
 
Quote from beachhouse:

If my guess is right, it means private bond holders are NOT joining the Greek swap deal, meaning that the insurers will pay the bond holders all the money that the Greeks refuse to pay.
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i don't understand.. why would the bond holders join the deal if the insurers pay all the money the greeks refuse to pay?
 
Quote from riskaddict:

Those 105 apr puts were ripe for the picking that sob that picked some up at 3.24 sure is smart and good looking :p
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Had my computer off for a few. I forgot about your put RA. So that's good. I was just thinking about your QMs.

Quote from Zr1Trader:

107.40 perhaps if we get a nice dumpin
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Nice call. :)

One last thought on dumping shorts which I guess you and ammo did RA. Who knows anytime where this may be headed? My main comment was to maybe avoid holding shorts over the weekend in case there was some incident and this gaped up. When I didn't it basically was where it closed Friday so an opportunity to reshort it if that seemed like the right play. I was onto TF today as I wasn't sure how CL would go. Turned out to be the right decision maybe.
 
Quote from BCE:

Had my computer off for a few. I forgot about your put RA. So that's good. I was just thinking about your QMs.

Nice call. :)

. Who knows anytime where this may be headed?
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No one knows for certain of course. I just based this last estimate on the daily ATR which would've meant we could see around 110.23 or 107.40. Depending on which way the wind was blowing.

Daily ATR for last 14 periods was 1.89 i rounded it to 2 bucks.

Top was around 109.40- 2.00 =107.40 downside tgt

Intraday bottom was 108.23 +2.00=10.23 upside tgt



ATR is helpful to know avg range for each day from top to bottom.
 
Hoping none of you tried to average into that last slow selloff long from 109.22 or so. Don't say I didn't warn you. Everyone thinks that because it has been flying up off the bottom the last few times, especially at the end of the day, it will always do this. That would be faulty thinking. You just have to see what happens. It's obviously had a hell of a run up. Things don't go up forever. I even tried a long @109.11, but when it stalled out I got out @109.12. It just got too weird and volatile and was just doing its own thing independent of anything but traders messing with it from what I could see. When I see that I'm gone. :)

BTW JMC nice call too on the pivots. On my charts 109.22 is PP. And it hit that exactly and then faded from there. And it came close to S2 when it bounced.
 
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