CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
exactly.It will become clearer toward March 8, the deadline set by the Greeks and laughed at by private bond holders and watched by traders and worred by insurers.
I don't see where it necessarily told "the price action in advance". It's not obvious except after the fact.
This is what I see using your chart. I see you've denoted the first or second 5 min bar high and low and then drew a box. And it traded above and below and in that box as the day unfolded. But I don't really see any direction from that that one would know ahead of time. Where I drew the arrow at 15:10 EST @108.65, it could have just as easily gone right back up to test 109.22 or higher as the arrow points out. It did fail to penetrate the PP @109.22 twice, but it did also penetrate it once. Who's to say it wouldn't make another run at it?
I was away, but when it started to sell off and took out the previous LOD @108.29 from 9:35 AM or even a little above there like 108.40 or so, that would be the short signal to me. My take.
I've got to go and get some lunch. BBL.
Oil may go back to test the resistance tomorrow at 109. While inventory build up is expected, it is not guaranteed. Lots of shorts are on board today for inventory build up, if the number is less than expected, a short squeeze may push the price back over 110.
It all depends on the number on Wednesday. If you don't have insider information, don't gamble.
Actually CL doesn't necessarily trade in unison with the indices. If you follow this for a while you'll see that. The strongest connection it has is an inverse relation to DX. But even then CL sometimes does it's own thing. If you keep trading CL off of how ES, or NQ, or another index trades you'll eventually get burned. Been there done that.
And your first sentence here proves the point. The indices didn't tank to the extent CL did at the EOD. Nor did DX have a huge rally. And CL did selloff like I had suggested it might and to the level Zr1T suggested.
One of my favorite quotes in regard to CL:
GM 
Surprised we didn't get even more of a selloff from the durable goods number. Case-Schiller home index coming out in a few minutes. And consumer confidence at 10 AM EST.
Feb. 28, 2012, 8:30 a.m. EST
Orders for U.S. durable goods sink 4.0% in January
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Orders for long-lasting U.S. goods fell a bigger-than-expected 4.0% in January, as demand for a broad array of products declined, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected orders to fall 1.3%, largely because of lower aircraft orders and the year-end expiration of a temporary tax credit. Bookings fell 19% for commercial aircraft, 10.4% for heavy machinery, 10.1% for computers and 6.7% for primary metals. Auto orders rose 0.9%, however. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders dropped 3.2%. Orders minus defense sank 4.5%. Orders for core capital goods, which exclude defense and transportation, slid 4.5% last month. Shipments of core capital goods, a number used to help calculate quarterly gross domestic product, declined 3.1% in January. The increase in durable-goods orders in December, meanwhile, was revised up to 3.2% from 3.0%
Surprised we didn't get even more of a selloff from the durable goods number. Case-Schiller home index coming out in a few minutes. And consumer confidence at 10 AM EST.Feb. 28, 2012, 8:30 a.m. EST
Orders for U.S. durable goods sink 4.0% in January
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Orders for long-lasting U.S. goods fell a bigger-than-expected 4.0% in January, as demand for a broad array of products declined, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected orders to fall 1.3%, largely because of lower aircraft orders and the year-end expiration of a temporary tax credit. Bookings fell 19% for commercial aircraft, 10.4% for heavy machinery, 10.1% for computers and 6.7% for primary metals. Auto orders rose 0.9%, however. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders dropped 3.2%. Orders minus defense sank 4.5%. Orders for core capital goods, which exclude defense and transportation, slid 4.5% last month. Shipments of core capital goods, a number used to help calculate quarterly gross domestic product, declined 3.1% in January. The increase in durable-goods orders in December, meanwhile, was revised up to 3.2% from 3.0%