CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
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Quote from NoDoji:
Measured move of the 60-min bull flag breakout takes us to just above 111.00.
I really thought it would pull it off by the end of the day and I gave back the profit on my final long, holding for more. That's how relentless us trend-followers can be
keying off cleaner charts than your 5min or even 1min and the right chart tools for reading price action on said chart will put those gains in your pocket, instead
Quote from NoDoji:
Measured move of the 60-min bull flag breakout takes us to just above 111.00.
I really thought it would pull it off by the end of the day and I gave back the profit on my final long, holding for more. That's how relentless us trend-followers can be
I was waiting for the pop as well I thought for sure on that 3rd push we would get it I had my buy stop waiting 110.15 to buy CLs when I should have been adding to my short QMs.
By not paying attention to the actual price and just trading what ya see this day wasn't to bad. Even though I'm down over 2k on the QMs I offset it by 1100 scalping CL. So this could either end up great or I might just be dying by water torture.
I just have a really bad feeling with the fed painting themselves into a corner like they did. F&&^^% chicken breasts are going to 20 bucks a pack I don't care about gas because I never drive but I eat a lot of chicken.
Found out my do doesn't have cancer his bladder was just all jacked up from stones!
Have a good weekend everyone.
Quote from austinp:
keying off cleaner charts than your 5min or even 1min and the right chart tools for reading price action on said chart will put those gains in your pocket, instead
No worries on that last long trade, I'd already booked 87 ticks prior to it and saw no reason to place a 20-tick hard target 1 tick inside the HOD. The final failed b/o happened so fast I couldn't take the 20 ticks at that point.
Good news, RA, and good weekend to all as well!
Interesting.
Yeah, maybe. But this looks pretty strong. So it may be better to hold through pullbacks, which would have been the best strategy so far. Unless you sell the spikes up and then reenter on pullbacks.
At some point this will reverse and some people will try to buy the dips not recognizing this is selling off instead. I'd suggest not trying to average in long on pullbacks for this reason. I saw a mini version of that during the last half hour. Everyone gets conditioned to buy any pullback as it has gone higher.
And I'd personally not try to swing short either. Wishing you all the best with those QM shorts RA. And ammo I know you got burned on those, but I think it was a good move to cut it now. You'll get it back. We just have to wait for a clear reversal signal and then be able to recognize it, which isn't always easy.
I tried twice to short 108.10 as observing the action CL wasn't rebounding with the indices and wasn't rebounding while DX was pulling back. But it didn't and as you can see from my chart I exited with a 4 tick and 3 tick loss. Nothing. After the fact one could say it would have been good to reverse it. But I did reenter @108.44 as you can also see. But I just got my 32 ticks and exited but did reenter several times on the runup and scalped my way up.
I look at different instruments and how they react toward one another. Lots of times this works really well. This worked great with TF earlier as it was just sitting in place while everything else was going up. I knew it would selloff and went short. And after a few minutes it did. But as we've mentioned many times too, CL has a mind of her own. Just wanted to test that low I guess and then a couple of hours later said, "Okay, lets go for a run back up the hill."
As I mentioned, unless the underlying story changes where will this top? That's why I'm trying to remember what happened when this topped @114. What caused the reversal? Seemed like it was the Saudis.
Oil futures close near $114 a barrel
April 29, 2011
http://articles.marketwatch.com/201...950_1_crude-supply-disruptions-oil-production
Not saying it's going there or not. Just some info on what happened last year. At some point this obviously will top and reverse. If Iran folds under continued heat from the International community and agrees to inspections of their nuclear facilities that would do it probably. Stay tuned.
From YouTube about May 5th, 2011, a week later, which startraitor mentioned, when crude sold off more than 10%. There is just one mention I noticed in this starting around 4:30 of the video. The indices tanked too that day.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xa6QdcB0Yqs
Here's an article. You can see the beginning of the selloff a few days earlier when it peaked @114.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/05/markets/oil_prices/index.htm
From the NY Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/06/business/06oil.html?_r=1
April 29, 2011
http://articles.marketwatch.com/201...950_1_crude-supply-disruptions-oil-production
Not saying it's going there or not. Just some info on what happened last year. At some point this obviously will top and reverse. If Iran folds under continued heat from the International community and agrees to inspections of their nuclear facilities that would do it probably. Stay tuned.
From YouTube about May 5th, 2011, a week later, which startraitor mentioned, when crude sold off more than 10%. There is just one mention I noticed in this starting around 4:30 of the video. The indices tanked too that day.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xa6QdcB0Yqs
Here's an article. You can see the beginning of the selloff a few days earlier when it peaked @114.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/05/markets/oil_prices/index.htm
From the NY Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/06/business/06oil.html?_r=1
What if we have a spectacular feb jobs number and some fed members start turning hawkish? Between that and huge inventories and nothing happening in Iran we should be back around 90 in March Some slowing numbers out of China would help to. I don't really see this as an expanding bubble but just testing the ranges of where it wants to be. I see this as the upper end of the range give or take 5 bucks 
It seems like anything between 90 and 100 everyone is kind of ok with it so long as the dollar stays in this same range.
I haven't really been paying attention to macro news but why is the dollar getting crushed again? Just because the Euro isn't disappearing any time soon? And the obvious reason of course but Wasn't everyone short the euro a month ago? So now they have to cover.
Obviously all this speculation is worthless because everyday the auction process is taking place and it does what ever it does. I'm just a tick trying to suck out as much blood as I can before some bastard pops me.
It seems like anything between 90 and 100 everyone is kind of ok with it so long as the dollar stays in this same range. I haven't really been paying attention to macro news but why is the dollar getting crushed again? Just because the Euro isn't disappearing any time soon? And the obvious reason of course but Wasn't everyone short the euro a month ago? So now they have to cover.
Obviously all this speculation is worthless because everyday the auction process is taking place and it does what ever it does. I'm just a tick trying to suck out as much blood as I can before some bastard pops me.
The break of 100.55 on 2/13 was confirmed channel breakout to the long side, with price closing solidly above the 20-day EMA. Swing traders are long. Counter-trend "faders" using the daily chart have no short signal yet (price needs to travel to a deep upper channel level which appears to be above $114 at this point; $120 is a measured move on the daily chart).
If you want to swing trade to the short side, wait for a lower high and a lower low, draw an upper trend line across the high and the lower high, look to short when price pulls back up to the UTL off a second LL. That's the "safest" signal, from my experience.