CL Redux

Quote from riskaddict:

What if we have a spectacular feb jobs number and some fed members start turning hawkish? Between that and huge inventories and nothing happening in Iran we should be back around 90 in March Some slowing numbers out of China would help to. I don't really see this as an expanding bubble but just testing the ranges of where it wants to be. I see this as the upper end of the range give or take 5 bucks :D It seems like anything between 90 and 100 everyone is kind of ok with it so long as the dollar stays in this same range.

I haven't really been paying attention to macro news but why is the dollar getting crushed again? Just because the Euro isn't disappearing any time soon? And the obvious reason of course but Wasn't everyone short the euro a month ago? So now they have to cover.

Obviously all this speculation is worthless because everyday the auction process is taking place and it does what ever it does. I'm just a tick trying to suck out as much blood as I can before some bastard pops me.
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The first part here sounds right. I feel this is in the process of testing the upper end of its range. And the whole market, the indices, seem to be ramped up too. As I mentioned before, there's been mostly positive, improving economic reports for a while now and no significant bad news. But that won't go on forever. And the market has runup significantly the last few months because of this.

Gasoline prices have really spiked the last few weeks. Eventually, sooner rather than later no doubt, people will start using less gas again like we all did last time it spiked. I remember it got up to $4.78 a gallon here at one point just briefly. But as V and I have mentioned it's a lot higher in Europe. Like about twice that. Maybe they're thinking we'll pay that.

But supply realities so far have been overridden by the Iran speculations and fears. Plus, as I've mentioned, I think a lot of this is just speculative momentum trading. That's what I see. To be successful trading this you have to go along for the ride with that. Reminds me of the internet bubble, but not as prolonged or intense. We all know how that ended.

Like you say, we just trade it. I'm not interested so much in predicting a top here, as I have no idea where that might be or if we even hit it yesterday. And this is why I personally won't try any swing shorts yet. But I'm just looking for signs to tell when it may be finding it. One would imagine this might start with a few down days for starters and then maybe accelerate. And the market may need to pullback too. There are quite a few more significant economic reports next week that could change things a bit, but not expecting any big changes. http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2012/02/27-02

Isn't the Euro/DX reality due to the Greece bailout agreement? Of course, Greece may default anyway. Stay tuned on that.

BTW who's "do" that didn't have cancer but stones? Whoever your loved one is, glad that's what's up. :)
 
Quote from NoDoji:

The break of 100.55 on 2/13 was confirmed channel breakout to the long side, with price closing solidly above the 20-day EMA. Swing traders are long. Counter-trend "faders" using the daily chart have no short signal yet (price needs to travel to a deep upper channel level which appears to be above $114 at this point; $120 is a measured move on the daily chart).

If you want to swing trade to the short side, wait for a lower high and a lower low, draw an upper trend line across the high and the lower high, look to short when price pulls back up to the UTL off a second LL. That's the "safest" signal, from my experience.
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Didn't see your post til I posted, but that's what I'm saying too. I don't see any signals yet to swing this short. So why be on the wrong side of this in the meantime and have it go against you? Why try to be the first and get flattened? This won't tank 10 points in a day for no reason.
 
Quote from BCE:

BTW who's "do" that didn't have cancer but stones? Whoever your loved one is, glad that's what's up. :)
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Now I remember. It's your dog, right? That's always good news.
 
http://arabnews.com/economy/article561475.ece?service=print they may want to get rid of some of the stored oil so they can reload,looks like storage is going to be getting tight,if i could manipulate the market by hoarding and push it up when i wanted to unload i would,we may see that 10 50 to 12.85 area 1st, (depends on how much they unloaded friday)and if i wanted to buy for reload and knew there would be a lot of oil needing storage i would dump it to 99 to buy lower...if only it were this easy to figure
 

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http://my.firedoglake.com/thingscom...off-the-coast-waiting-for-oil-prices-to-rise/ story is mar 2010, chart is for apr and may 2010, 114 ....... i'm not that bright but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to wonder if there is manipulation going on and look into it,they've turned it into multi million,billion $ annual events,.........the world's corporate business ethics standards have become so invisible that there aren't enough govt agncy /police/laws to govern them,........there used to be a little shame ,compassion,that's all gone now,.......no more good old human nature/decency to keep things intact with marginal amounts of crime
 

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Quote from ammo:

http://my.firedoglake.com/thingscom...off-the-coast-waiting-for-oil-prices-to-rise/ story is mar 2010, chart is for apr and may 2010, 114 ....... i'm not that bright but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to wonder if there is manipulation going on and look into it,they've turned it into multi million,billion $ annual events,.........the world's corporate business ethics standards have become so invisible that there aren't enough govt agncy /police/laws to govern them,........there used to be a little shame ,compassion,that's all gone now,.......no more good old human nature/decency to keep things intact with marginal amounts of crime
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Quoting the article, "No part of the markets are trading on fundamental values, nor on forward business expectations. They are instead trading as “hot money” repositories where speculators rotate in and out of various instruments literally on a minute-by-minute basis." That seems to be truer and truer with crude lately. That is unless they consider the Iran issue a fundamental. To me it's more of an excuse at this point. It ran up last week when Iran said they would no longer sell to the UK or France. The only catch with that was the UK and France don't buy oil from Iran anyway. So it was basically an unimportant announcement.

To me most all of this runup is speculation and momentum trading and not fundamental. Supplies are up and at the upper level of their range and have been. And one would think that they would go up more as the price of gas increases and people cut back buying it.

Goldman Sachs is one of the ones hording crude oil in supertankers from what I've heard. They used our bailout money from their credit default swap fiasco to pay for this. And they're hording aluminum too, driving the price of that up too. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/29/us-lme-warehousing-idUSTRE76R3YZ20110729
 
Quote from BCE:



It ran up last week when Iran said they would no longer sell to the UK or France. The only catch with that was the UK and France don't buy oil from Iran anyway. So it was basically an unimportant announcement.

To me most all of this runup is speculation and momentum trading and not fundamental.

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I think oil will tank big time very soon. I just hope it will tank before I cry uncle.

I bet all my money that US will not, cannot, dare not attack Iran.

Lots of childish moves convinced me that US attack on Iran is NOT going to happen.
 
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