CL Redux

Quote from Lucias:

Zeak,

Good question. I work during the day and find that my best trades are made "at the open". I'm looking to place an order by 11 AM or be out. This is when the big traders move. I'm not scalping but either taking out a measured move or trying to take out a trend day. I want my trades to have time to work out or to exit at a good price. If I enter late day, I've found it is too easy to lose quickly and not have time to recover. I find my performance is worse too. If I'm wrong late day then there isn't any time to recover and again late day moves tend to fail more often. So, it is a combination of factors: i.e morning is best opportunity, work, and also risk of not having time to recover. This is not a hard rule but a general principle. But now why I'm out before the close, I'm trading the spreads at NADEX, and I chose a 12 PM expiry. My read and market action were not compelling enough for me to want to risk another trade. I'm a real greenhorn on CL.
More...

Thanks....but I would have to say that you sound like you know what what you are doing.

Good trading to you....
 
Just came back to have a looook - 100 pip retracement from the lows, eh?

Just thinking ahead a little, would Asian traders on Monday morning be inclined to buy or sell US stocks futures, US crude oil etc after reading the horrific jobs report.

Would anyone want to remain long over the weekend?

Just a thought.

/talking position, of course

:p
 
U.S. Payrolls Grow at Slowest Pace in 9 Months

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...000-in-june-jobless-rate-climbed-to-9-2-.html

American employers added jobs at the slowest pace in nine months in June and the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 9.2 percent, sending global stocks tumbling on concern the world’s biggest economy is faltering.

Employers increased payrolls by 18,000 workers, less than the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists, which called for growth of 105,000. The increase followed a 25,000 gain that was less than half the initial estimate. Hiring by companies was the weakest since May 2010.

“This is a very fragile state for the U.S. labor market,” said John Herrmann, a senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Global Markets LLC in Boston. “It suggests that the overall recovery remains somewhat tenuous.”

Treasuries climbed as the report called into question Federal Reserve forecasts for an economic rebound in the second half of the year and raised the odds of additional stimulus. The increase in unemployment also poses a fresh challenge for President Barack Obama as he seeks to keep the economy growing while also negotiating budget cuts with congressional leaders.

“Stunned,” was how Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, described his reaction. “This number will really turn your hair gray, that’s for sure. The economy remains mired in its soft patch, which is looking more like a deep bog.”

Estimates of the 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg for overall payrolls ranged from increases of 40,000 to 175,000. (See related commentary.)
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/poor-jobs-data-stuns-wall-street-politicians-2011-07-08

“We can see no silver lining in this employment report, which is weak, weak, weak.” — John Ryding, RDQ Economics

• “The details aren’t quite as bad as the headline, with private payrolls up 57,000, but that’s still pretty terrible when compared to the 240,000 average as recently as the three months to April.” — Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics

• “The upshot is that exactly two years after the recovery began, broad labor market conditions haven’t improved at all.” — Paul Ashworth, Capital Economics

• “The June payroll employment report shows that companies continue to focus on cost cutting instead of expanding their business in the search of profits. This confirms that CEOs have no confidence in the sustainability of the recovery/expansion.” — Steven Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities

• “Temporary workers, which usually rise when job growth is solid, declined. Firms often start off by hiring temps before determining they need permanent workers and that didn’t happen.” — Joel Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors

• “With downward pressure on government payrolls likely to persist, it is important to look at the overall nonfarm payroll results rather than just those for the private sector.” — Joshua Shapiro, MFR Inc.

• “Simply put, this was a very weak report and it suggests that the slowdown in economic activity may have been deeper than thought. Even so, we believe that the worse of the slowdown is behind us and expect the pace of jobs growth and economic activity to accelerate in the coming months.” — Millan Mulraine, TD Securities
 
U.S. Employment Data ADP vs. BLS
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21656.html

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http://www.bls.gov/


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Two major reasons ADP vs NFP numbers have been so different

http://traderhabits.com/2011/07/two-major-reasons-adp-vs-nfp-numbers-so-different/

To summarize
a) ADP has a small sample size and
b) does not include government employment.

Survey size:

ADP surveys “over 23-24 million” and NFP is 7-9x larger (ADP goes back and forth between the 23 and 24 million number, maybe they should get an editor and not datestamp their documents ie REVISED_METHODOLOGY_DEC_2008.pdf).

Private Sector Jobs:

ADP does not include government jobs which according to the BLS is has been declining since 2008.

Employment in government continued to trend down over the month (-39,000). Federal
employment declined by 14,000 in June. Employment in both state government and local
government continued to trend down over the month and has been falling since the
second half of 2008.
 
QE3 talk

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...s-data-japan-bond-risk-crude-oil-decline.html

- U.S. payrolls increased by 18,000 in June, about one-sixth the median estimate ( 100,000 ) in a Bloomberg survey of economists, and
- the jobless rate rose to a 2011 high of 9.2 percent.

The report damped optimism about prospects for profit growth before the earnings season starts next week.


The data revived speculation that the Federal Reserve will plan more stimulus efforts to bolster growth after its second round of so-called quantitative easing, known as QE2 among investors, ended in June.

“This raises the prospect of QE3 in the U.S. by November and
perhaps even earlier than that in the U.K.,” said David Blanchflower, an economics professor at Dartmouth College, in a Bloomberg TV interview. “That’s what we’re going to see. How else are you going to stimulate?”
 
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