s@.41, .15 st
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CL Redux
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Quote from Visaria:
You may be right, but can you expound on this?
After massive NFP volume, sellers are already relatively tired. 20K contracts in 10 minutes is no joke. Not so much to give up, but ready for a retrace. We got that. Then the break below the pre-pit low, we get a nice big down bar (5m) on heavy volume (7.5K). That's strength. But, we have a level to test, and it will happen. Buyers know it, so they concede until 95.85 is tested. 95.85 is really the key level here -- see 5/17 LOD and 6/29 HOD.
From the test on forward, each thrust down is weaker, and on weaker volume. The double bottom at .71 is to test waters below the real key level. Buyers found, so mission accomplished-- now, shake out early adopters, punch down for about 10 seconds to .60 and pop back up, closing on all time frames above previous double bottom at .71, with just enough volume to be final exhaustion, but not so much that it attracts more sellers.
I was a little predictive, but the final good to go for me is break above TL at 11:21, retest at 11:32 and at this time also dip below one more time to the key level, 95.85 to test for supply, none found (just look at that 11:35 volume), so ready for an attempt up. In fact, I should be long at .92, but did not take the trade due to distractions here.
Now, what could happen here could be back and forth, or anything for that matter. Sellers may get more cocky up here, but I doubt they are strong enough now to push down to .60 again. At this point, long term buyers see support at 95.85 holding (look at 60m chart, and see the 11:00 bar that initially tagged below 96 close above 96, on heavy volume). But as they always say, trade what you see happening, not what you think will happen. I will try a short here in a heartbeat if I see lots of red and a good opportunity.
The only thing that concerns me about longs here, is that the pushes up here, including the last 60m bar, have been rather weak... it's almost expected given the time of day and previous activity, but I would much prefer to see some participation behind it.
EDIT - A retest of 96 seems all but inevitable
EDIT - A retest of 96 seems all but inevitable
Quote from Lucias:
I was expecting a push to 50 and a close around 35. Market is weaker then anticipated. I'm out for day but would not be surprised for another retest of lows and a close near 95.85. Feels rather weak.
Hi,
Just wondering why you are out for the day?
Was your profit target hit? You max loss hit? Other plans, or just not liking the market action?
I have a bad habit of ceasing to trade after a winner, cause I dont want to risk loosing the profit I have. Just wondering about this logic.
Thanks