CL Redux

This is so TRUE, these 2 lines summaries why we are guaranteed to LOSE with OVER trading..

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The vast majority of time in a day we have no edge in a given market..

Any given market gives us (at most) a few key opportunities of inefficiency to exploit during each given session.
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but when you get those few edge opportunities in a session ( one or two) , the trader is already in losing trade and money is tied up so can not take the opportunity which has big edge.


Quote from austinp:


Any given market gives us (at most) a few key opportunities of inefficiency to exploit during each given session. Some volatile sessions have quite a few spots, some dull sessions have one spot at most where we can clearly create a defined edge for ourselves.

The vast majority of time in a day we have no edge in a given market... it's a coin toss at best before trade costs are subtracted from the mix.

Way too many traders keep themselves too busy leaking money in the coin-toss game to ever make real money in the few prime spots where a true edge exists that they should be patiently waiting for instead.

We are all the same. We love this game. It's important to control ourselves at all times from making the game addiction our reason for trading
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One other thing is, when there's a clearly defined trend, and your trade is in the direction of the trend, it's maybe easier and wiser to let the trade run more in your favor. But with CL lately, some of the time at least, there's less of a defined trend it seems. And then of course there are all of the, "We interrupt your trading for this important announcement. ......................" news event which sends the market flying in the opposite direction.
 
Quote from Visaria:

Do you use stops? Doesn't sound if you do.
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not hard/fast...points of re-evaluation. obviously during the nite a couple of times the trade went far against me....made the adjustment the next day. definitely could lead to ruin.
 
Quote from BCE:

One other thing is, when there's a clearly defined trend, and your trade is in the direction of the trend, it's maybe easier and wiser to let the trade run more in your favor. But with CL lately, some of the time at least, there's less of a defined trend it seems. And then of course there are all of the, "We interrupt your trading for this important announcement. ......................" news event which sends the market flying in the opposite direction.
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Truth is we are all trading any financial market under extreme unusual conditions right now. Libya taking turns with Japan for spotlight, Saudi Arabia and Iran the sidewhow, dash of G-7 currency intervention, rollover wrapping up on Monday following triple-witch expiry last two weeks.

We can only treat this recent period as one big outlier and work thru it accordingly. Extreme volatility and violent reversals may erupt at any moment in time. But overall it is just more noise... when in doubt, hold each trade a bit longer than seems comfortable and +100 cent to +200 cent rewards will happen :)
 
Quote from RichardRimes:

not hard/fast...points of re-evaluation. obviously during the nite a couple of times the trade went far against me....made the adjustment the next day. definitely could lead to ruin.
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Yes, despite someone's comments the other day, you can't trade this instrument without stops unless you have unlimited funds in your account, and/or have a death wish. But why would you want to trade without stops anyway, and let a trade potentially run miles against you, even if you do have unlimited funds? Why babysit a bad trade for hours or days and tie up all of the funds involved? Perhaps doing that may just spring from a lack of trading discipline.
 
Quote from RichardRimes:

not hard/fast...points of re-evaluation. obviously during the nite a couple of times the trade went far against me....made the adjustment the next day. definitely could lead to ruin.
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CL markets have (and will again) run $10 (1,000 cent) to $15 (1,500 cent) directional moves in a single session circa 2007 ~ 2008. We will see it again, quite possibly before this calendar month is out. Any CL trade without a hard, fixed stop may wind up five miles against you in the end.
 
Quote from austinp:

CL markets have (and will again) run $10 (1,000 cent) to $15 (1,500 cent) directional moves in a single session circa 2007 ~ 2008. We will see it again, quite possibly before this calendar month is out. Any CL trade without a hard, fixed stop may wind up five miles against you in the end.
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Devious minds think alike. :)
 
CL daily-chart snapshot from 2008 shows a ton of 400 - 700 cent trend sessions and two greater than 1,000 cent daily ranges

Long from the top of those days with no stop = painful drawdown to the tune of five-figures per contract
 

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i trade without stops..it is not about unlimited funds... it is about discipline..

Do you always enter a trade with stops?.. no then why would you need to use stops to exit... you look at the market.. you make a decision.. the you hit the mouse button and open a position.. it is the same with exiting... you do not hace to use a stop.. geeze.. if you are trading this scared then you are obvioulsy over leveraged.... anyway ..who gives a crap if you use stops or not.. use whatever is working for you.

I am short 700 UCO shares over this weekend.. without a stop... am I nervous.. yes.. but by tomorrow evening there should be a complete and real cease fire in place... libya could barely defeat the rebels.. they sure as hell cannot beat france, usa, and england. This will be over.. it will be a 3 day war and that's that.. oil will sell off eventually.. we are swimming in oil.

so to stop or not .. use what works for you
 
I totally agree with you guys in trading the cash ( CL and ES).
I guess thats why I'm just more comfortable with options as the movement is not so fast and you simply have more options. I don't think I have the mindset and/or temperament for scalping the cash.

understand i didn't leave myself naked that long except for QM...my other trades I used long CLM1 to offset short CLJ1 also legged into the strangle. Hard to teach an old dog new tricks.
 
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