CL Redux

[NoDoji]

Quote from austinp:

CL daily-chart snapshot from 2008 shows a ton of 400 - 700 cent trend sessions and two greater than 1,000 cent daily ranges

Long from the top of those days with no stop = painful drawdown to the tune of five-figures per contract

Ahh, but that symmetrical triangle continuation breakout in the direction of the existing trend is pure trader porn

I've noticed that the recent "rogue" moves out of nowhere, are in the direction of a price action setup in which you can either enter in the direction of the break if not already positioned, or be safely stopped out if you're positioned the other way.

When I was a counter-trend fader and would hold swing positions until price came back or I puked, holding those big red positions totally distracted me from making good money as new opportunities presented.

The biggest lesson I learned in my months of sim trading CL was to learn how to trade without cheating (averaging, trading without stops). Take the small losses and try again if you're totally married to a directional bias. But better yet, just learn how to trade in the direction of the trend in your time frame

 

[austinp]

Quote from Totalizator:

i trade without stops..it is not about unlimited funds... it is about discipline..

Do you always enter a trade with stops?.. no then why would you need to use stops to exit... you look at the market.. you make a decision.. the you hit the mouse button and open a position.. it is the same with exiting... you do not hace to use a stop.. geeze.. if you are trading this scared then you are obvioulsy over leveraged.... anyway ..who gives a crap if you use stops or not.. use whatever is working for you.

so to stop or not .. use what works for you

Firday morning premarket the CL broke off Libya news and plunged -100 cents from 104+ (May) inside of one minute... actually seconds in real time.

Where would your mental stop have gotten you out there?

It ain't about trading "scared"... it's about trading smart. Go ahead and use whatever works for you over time. I already know the answer to "mental stops" in commodity markets. That result is one-way and never changes.

 

[austinp]

May contract on Friday: not a lot of time to close out long trades, price never came near highs again

 

[BCE]

Quote from austinp:

Truth is we are all trading any financial market under extreme unusual conditions right now.

True, but CL seems to be affected more than say some of the index futures. It's moving sometimes 2-3 points in minutes = $2,000-3000 per contract. For instance, for TF to move an equal amount $$ wise, it would have to move 20-30 points in the same amount of time, which it rarely does.

 

[Visaria]

Quote from RichardRimes:

I totally agree with you guys in trading the cash ( CL and ES).
I guess thats why I'm just more comfortable with options as the movement is not so fast and you simply have more options. I don't think I have the mindset and/or temperament for scalping the cash.

understand i didn't leave myself naked that long except for QM...my other trades I used long CLM1 to offset short CLJ1 also legged into the strangle. Hard to teach an old dog new tricks.

We're not trading the cash, we're trading futures. Cash would mean, with regard to ES, the underlying shares or with regard to CL, the spot crude market.

Always a good idea to use the correct terminology.

 

[RichardRimes]

I'm trading both the futures AND the options ON the futures...that is why i used the term cash to try and distinguish...sorry didn't mean to confuse.

 

[BCE]

Quote from NoDoji:


When I was a counter-trend fader and would hold swing positions until price came back or I puked, holding those big red positions totally distracted me from making good money as new opportunities presented.

The biggest lesson I learned in my months of sim trading CL was to learn how to trade without cheating (averaging, trading without stops). Take the small losses and try again if you're totally married to a directional bias. But better yet, just learn how to trade in the direction of the trend in your time frame

That's what I'm asking. Why babysit a trade going against you and tie up even more of your trading capital averaging into it when you can take a small loss and reenter in the direction of the prevailing trend and be making money rather than fighting the market? I don't see any valid reason to do that. And the response, "To each his own." to me doesn't hold up. My 2 cents.

 

[Visaria]

Quote from BCE:

True, but CL seems to be affected more than say some of the index futures. It's moving sometimes 2-3 points in minutes = $2,000-3000 per contract. For instance, for TF to move an equal amount $$ wise, it would have to move 20-30 points in the same amount of time, which it rarely does.

That's exactly why we need to use stops.

I recall being long on 9/11 on the ES. When the news broke, i was stopped out v quickly and before the markets went into freefall.

On the entry, virtually every trade I make is entered into via a stop.

Those of you who don't use stops need to question your underlying motivation for not using them.

 

[BCE]

Quote from Totalizator:

i trade without stops..it is not about unlimited funds... it is about discipline..

Do you always enter a trade with stops?.. no then why would you need to use stops to exit... you look at the market.. you make a decision.. the you hit the mouse button and open a position.. it is the same with exiting... you do not hace to use a stop.. geeze.. if you are trading this scared then you are obvioulsy over leveraged.... anyway ..who gives a crap if you use stops or not.. use whatever is working for you.

I am short 700 UCO shares over this weekend.. without a stop... am I nervous.. yes.. but by tomorrow evening there should be a complete and real cease fire in place... libya could barely defeat the rebels.. they sure as hell cannot beat france, usa, and england. This will be over.. it will be a 3 day war and that's that.. oil will sell off eventually.. we are swimming in oil.

so to stop or not .. use what works for you

I also think it's dangerous and not fruitful to take large positions based on an opinion of what you think is up and how it will play out. Things change. And right now they're changing it seems daily and sometimes hourly. And the more you are locked into your version of things and what will happen, even when the market ends up telling you otherwise, the less successful you'll be.

BBL Good discussions today.

 

[cvds16]

Quote from NoDoji:



When I was a counter-trend fader and would hold swing positions until price came back or I puked, holding those big red positions totally distracted me from making good money as new opportunities presented.

The biggest lesson I learned in my months of sim trading CL was to learn how to trade without cheating (averaging, trading without stops). Take the small losses and try again if you're totally married to a directional bias.

I couldn't agree more and know all about the puking lol. I swore to myself that I will never ever again in my life swing trade again; to me that's pure gambling. It was a tough lesson to learn.
I learned the no cheating while trade a micro-account in fx, it took me much longer then I ever thought possible when in fact when most stuff I do now is rather simple. Another thing is be patient and strike like a sniper when your moment is there, if it doesn't work get out with a small loss and wait for the next bus. Sounds simple but it took me a long time to work on these things.