CL Redux

Quote from BCE:

Unrelated but, wow. Just doing a 5 contract sim trade of 6E just to fool around. It ran up to 1.3676 and then sold off down to 1.36 in 1 minute. I was up over $2k and then down $2k. :) Then it dropped to 1.3575. Just waking up and looking at a few things. Was this the jobs report? Maybe because the USD got a lift out of the jobs report.

CL looks range bound again so far, maybe with a bit of an upward bias relative to the general market.

We'll see what happens in Egypt today.

Not sure how much I'll be trading this morning. May go back to bed to catch up on my beauty sleep. I need all I can get. :)
More...

The jobs number was considered poor and some of this price action right around release
 
2 charts both are telling me buy at 89.50

<a href="http://s1219.photobucket.com/albums/dd438/bswansen1/?action=view&amp;current=4hourwedge.png" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1219.photobucket.com/albums/dd438/bswansen1/4hourwedge.png" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a>


<a href="http://s1219.photobucket.com/albums/dd438/bswansen1/?action=view&amp;current=30minprofile.png" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1219.photobucket.com/albums/dd438/bswansen1/30minprofile.png" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a>
 
Quote from BCE:



The thing with futures is, they're so highly leveraged that unless you have huge funds it's extremely risky to try to swing trade them over an extended length of time and not be on the right side of the trade right off. And then even if you are, you may have to work hard to stay on the right side of the trade unless you happen to catch it right. You may have to keep trying different entries until you get it. I mentioned before the realities of averaging into losing positions which with these contracts is really risky to my mind.
More...

I think certain commodity markets differ quite a bit from stock index futures and other markets, since you have gigantic commercial hedgers involved, constantly building huge shorts on and leaving them, even if they go against them. Plus since crude is so controlled by OPEC, they have interest in keeping it above many operators break-even point (which in my casual discussions I have been told a few Chevron operated fields in California are about $40, I'm sure it's entirely different elsewhere), and below the point where people start actively looking and investing in alternative energy sources. They certainly don't want that, so will keep it below that "psychological point", so longer term shorts above that level by companies with net long exposure would make a lot of sense. Just locking in guaranteed profit essentially. I know there are a few studies funded by some oil companies which attempt to determine the price, which consumers modify their purchasing behavior. If memory serves me correctly, at $147, Saudi Aramco was fully online, pushing out more output then they had in 30 years trying to drive prices down ASAP. Unlike some of the other OPEC members who were blinded by short term profits and greed, Saudi seems to understand the concept of "pigs get slaughtered", and try to keep their business operating successfully for as long as possible. I often wonder if oil had never reached those peaks, and had been more of a slow climb upwards, if we would be seeing as much interest and development in electric vehicles and alternative energy as we are currently.
 
Quote from EON Kid:

prolly see a drop and then a rally
More...

stage 1 is complete
bwahaha.gif
now for stage 2 JK :D
 
Quote from tlow:

Man, I love these days on the CL...just keep shorting the LODs and your guaranteed a winner :)
More...

Indeed a nice ride on the Crude Luge. That triple bottom ~89.20 was just about as ripe as can be on the 4th test there. Nice breakdown earlier in the session as well. No tricks so far today, fairly straight forward it seems. A few pinbars on the 5min failed to reverse, but other than that, the 1min seems very clear.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top