CL Redux

I 1st went long CL, and it started to go down against me. I did not wait for confirmation of bullish signal. Did something stupid and removed stop since I did not want to take a loss. CL then stated to make a LL, after that it came up a little bit above support but I was smart enough to realize it was probably going lower and it came up enough to take a standard stop so I market closed my order for a normal loss. I should have waited for confirmation.

CL then broke all supports, but finally started to show a bullish pin double bottom, and my indicator finally turned up. I wanted to try for 20 ticks or more of profit, but after going above 10 ticks to around 12 - 14, it started to reverse on me, so I marketed closed for a profit.

At this point I am BE, and decided to look at the EURO since I felt CL was extremely weak and did not want to take another long since I saw no support around this area, and maybe it was due to a report who knows.

EURO ie 6E was looking interesting. Normally, I don't like trading it, but I saw previous resistance around 1.65 which should now become support. Although EURO made a small LL below it, it then did come back above with confirmation of the indicator I use for EURO. So I got in for a long scalp looking for 10 ticks of profit and this was going to be my last trade of the day. I also like this trade since my stop was survivable in that the stop was a standard stop and would allow the market to show me that my idea for a long was wrong. This was around even risk vs reward. I felt even if the EURO was going to go lower later in the day, it had a strong probability of going back up to reach my target. Looking back at the trade, I could have gotten 15 - 20 ticks of profit easy. I felt good about this trade, and I felt it was a high probability trade, plus as noted although EURO had fallen from a HH. and made a LL, it was now going in my direction. EURO was currently range bound in that it was making HH, and LL, not LH, and LL, but the range was pretty big. I guess my only regret was not doing more contracts so I could leave a runner for this trade. Yesterday I over traded and made similar mistake of removing stop on CL which was stupid. If I decide to watch the trades after I take them, I need to stop myself from removing stops, and just accept I will take losses when I make a mistake or the market is random. Today, I did 3 trades, 1 loss and 2 wins for a profit.
 
Quote from Picaso:



Down $212.48 for the day - should have gone have that drink with the Korean girl, but I had an attack of responsibility, hahaha :D :p
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I never pass up women for trading, even though it breaks the cardinal rule of trading = preservation of capital. Each to his own. ;)
 
bahhh closed my long from 90.30 to early ... only to see it touched my orginal target of 91.20


.... ahhh well

what caused that jump anyways ?
 
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/02/idINIndia-54596020110202

"We suspect that the yet unresolved political standoff in Egypt will likely keep oil prices fairly well bid, at least for the balance of the week," said Edward Meir, senior commodities analyst at brokers MF Global.

Credit Suisse analysts agreed, saying price risks would remain "skewed to the upside" as long as geopolitical tensions in Egypt remained unresolved: "We expect oil prices to ease once tensions fade due to ample global inventories."

Although the unrest in Egypt has so far had no effect on transit through the Suez Canal or the Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) oil pipeline, shipping sources said there were major disruptions in Egypt's Alexandria and Damietta ports due to staff shortages and an absence of customs officials.

Egypt controls the canal and the pipeline, which together moved over 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and oil products in 2009.

At the back of many investors' minds is an unspoken worry that unrest in North Africa could fuel similar protests in bigger oil producers such as Libya or even Saudi Arabia, stirring fears of a temporary disruption to oil supplies.
 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oi...ady-ahead-of-us-oil-inventory-data-2011-02-02

Nymex crude could reach $95 a barrel in the near future based on macroeconomic fundamentals, Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note to subscribers.

"We are still inclined to view the exceptional strength in the stock market and (Tuesday's) 2.5-month highs in the euro versus dollar as latent bullish considerations," he said. "This macroeconomic factor could keep WTI crude values well-supported even if the Egyptian situation begins to stabilize."
 
Barring any contagion effect to other major oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia, I believe Egypt is written off by the market. Other possibility that could stoke fear would be to clamp down with an iron fist that results in a bloodbath where the Western countries need to intervene.
 
Quote from Picaso:

Long .69 out .67 a few minutes ago. Not very sure why. As Nodoji would say: "Bottom pickers end up with smelly fingers, whereas BO traders are the bees' knees"

Down $212.48 for the day - should have gone have that drink with the Korean girl, but I had an attack of responsibility, hahaha :D :p

Will be in a boat for a few days - good/luck skill everyone.

(I think I'm over 70 BE/small loss in a row now, but I'd have to check - If I didn't know myself I'd think I'm pathetic... actually even knowing myself... :D Tomorrow is another day)
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Picaso,

Your short @ 90,84 was a really beautiful entry that you could have got nicely paid for. Why did you move your stop to breakeven instead of getting paid? :)

Your long @ 90,69 however does not make sense. The trend was down and the market kept making lower lows on the 5-minute chart and there were no signs of reversal. Did you believe that price had gone "too far"?

70 BE/small losses in a row? How tight stops are you using and how fast are you moving it to BE? And why are you moving it to BE?

I used to get stopped out of many breakeven trades myself, but I managed to overcome it to some degree in sim. Now that I`m back with live trading, I hope I will be able to continue that.

Personally, I got a huge revelation by reading some advice BigHog gave to NoDoji with regards to BE and trailing stops. I`ll be glad to post it if you like to.

Have fun on your trip! :)

PS: Even though I don`t trade crude myself, I enjoy checking in on you guys every now and then. You guys have a good thing going on here :)
 
Quote from schizo:

Barring any contagion effect to other major oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia, I believe Egypt is written off by the market. Other possibility that could stoke fear would be to clamp down with an iron fist that results in a bloodbath where the Western countries need to intervene.
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I wasn't thinking to much into it, but because todays midday break did not lead to anything meaningful I think CL will test the upper range 9280's first
 
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